Don't think so. MS is in a good position, and so is Nintendo. Still I'd be very surprised if MS didn't go full "Kinect" next-gen. It's their money printer, so it's no to hard to imagine that it'll be their main focus next gen. Of course they'll still have select franchises like Halo, Fable and Gear ( and more) to cater to everyone.
Nintendo on the other hand is like you said a wild card. The games will b there (going by the info we have so far) but as to whether or not it will be a hit like Wii I can't say.
As for Sony, I think they need to go back to their PS1 and PS2 strategy. A slightly less powerful console, yet strong enough to have most multiplats ( unlike what happened with the Wii this gen), lower price and keep up the great push they've been doing with their own 1st party games.
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As for what any of the three will actually do, we'll have to wait until E3 to know :S
Desmonic
modern warfare, halo, gears, are also there money makers. They will accomodate both Hardcore and casuals, come on now why if you are making money on both markets would you turn your back on one that is still a major moneymaker. You guys are paraniod when it comees to Kinect, always been, listen to a guy like me, im always on target.
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