Man I'm still calling late 2012 at the earliest, late 2013 at the latest for next gen consoles. More specifically Nintendo in 2012, Sony and MS in 2013.
I don't believe this 2015 nonsense. Even if MS does choose to milk Kinect over the next few years, they will still have to bring something new to the table to remain relevant. They went through a lot to build up all this strength in the market and I highly doubt they are willing to stand by and watch it slip away.
As for Sony, Move is not exactly offering the console longer legs at this point. I believe they will see through the 10 year cycle as they said, but again, just like MS they must stay relevant. I'm sure Sony wants to be back on top, and holding off a few more years is not the way.
If for some whack ass reason Sony and MS do choose to launch that late then Nintendo will re-absorb all the 3rd party support they lost so many years ago and continue maintain market leadership.
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