It's definitely happening, the pics from Montana's Twitter acct made that clear. It's also a pretty good bet to be some sort of "MS ecosystem" exclusive (lul). Nothing's been confirmed there but the reports seem to point in that direction, and tidbits like Montana tweeting from the MS campus hint at it.
Is it going to be licensed? Very unlikely, which makes you wonder why they'd try it now at all. EA stated in a financial call last year that they had "a couple of years left" on their (quietly extended) NFL deal. Also, all of the leaked pictures of JM16 are of fake teams in fake stadiums with Joe Montana playing. The only hope for licensing for the game this year would be that A: the EA deal was extended, but allowed platform manufacturers to bypass it (ala the 2k baseball deal), and everyone has known this (Sony,MS,2k,ect.) for over a year and no one mentioned it just to be nice, AND B: The game devs are purposefully building fake stadiums, teams, and players to intentionally make it seem like they Don't have the license that they Do - even though announcing the license would give the game a much much higher profile with fans - because gosh darn it, it was funny. It also assumes MS is willing to make an aggressive move against EA, whom they have a close relationship with from Titanflop, to the EA subscription service, to a deal marketing Madden itself. Another theory has it that because MS paid mega bucks to the NFL, they could make the NFL void their EA contract, but that's so stupid it doesn't deserve discussion.
The best guess I have for them releasing an unlicensed game this year is that part of the reason the NFL agreed to extending the EA contract was EA threatened to walk away without a deal, and they didn't see a viable replacement on the horizon. Putting a quality - though unlicensed - JM game out would show the NFL that there is an alternative avenue to putting out a quality NFL game if the bidding is reopened or exclusivity dropped all together. And if bidding is reopened, I would not be a bit surprised if MS gets a dea, and also makes a play to take NFL gaming exclusive. Hell, we all know MS loves to shovel money at the NFL. In fact the only ing that might prevent that is the NFL deciding such an arrangement was bad for their fanbase or image, and refused.
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