The winner of this generation's war will also win next genration's. This is because backward compatibiltiy will be more important next round. Without a doubt the PS3 and the 360 were designed so that PS4 and the Xbox 720 will be easily backwards compatible.
Why is compatibility and winning this gen so important for next gen? Because this generation's games will have a longer life span. The graphics now are so good that even in 5 to 10 years from now, gamers can still play the games without being grossed out by the graphics. The next gen's graphics will not be that much better than this gen's. This is the law of diminishing return. Think VHS to DVD to Blu-ray. The graphical differences becomes less and less over time.
So the consoles with the most games, the best graphics, and the best gameplay will help its next gen version the most. Because the Xbox 360's inability to win Japan and Europe, the PS3 will have the larger install base world wide, and with it comes the most games. It is becoming clearer and clearer that the PS3's use of the Blu-ray disk instead of DVD9 will give the PS3 a big advantage as developers spend less time making game engines and more time creating bigger and better contents in their games. For this reason, Microsoft must be the first to come out with their next console or risk having their 360 looking more and more dated relative to the PS3. DVD9 and RROD are the 360's greatest weaknesses in the HD generation. Microsoft must launch the next xbox no later than 2011.
Microsoft is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It must release the next xbox soon, but it won't be that much better than the PS3. Say the Xbox 720 comes out in 2010 or 2011. Chances are the console will be significantly more powerful on paper but the games won't look much better than the 4th or 5th generation PS3 games. Again this is due to the law of diminishing return. Budgets will skyrocket even more, and developers will want to spend most of their resources on the PS3, the 360, and the Wii2 (Wii2 should be about as powerful as the PS3 or the 360). Lack of developer support will slow the adoption of 720.
The smart move for Sony is to bring out the PS4 1 year after the 720, making sure that the PS4 will again be more powerful. Unlike this gen, next gen's 1 year head start will not help as much, again because this gen's graphics are already very, very good. Plus, backwards compatibility will be more important next gen. Because the PS3 will have more and better games, the PS4 will have an edge in compatibilty and power. The story of this gen repeating itself for next gen.
If the 720 is just barely better than PS3, then the other smart move for Sony is to wait till 2013 to 2015, ignoring the 720 and effectively skipping the next gen. The PS3 is that future proof. By launching the PS4 3 to 4 years after the 720, Sony can concentrate on making the biggest, best exclusives on the PS3. Then launch the PS4 with 2 or 3 sequals of those exclusives. This is the route I would take, if I were Sony.
As for the Wii, I believe Nintendo is now itching for some HD action, especially when the PS3 reaches ~$200 in price. This means Nintendo will probrably launch the Wii2 around the time of the Xbox 720's launch.
I wonder if Sony and Microsoft will adopt the Wii's control scheme for their next systems. If Microsoft's 720 uses the Wii's control scheme or something much better than the 360's controller, then Sony has 2 options:
1) They should launch the PS4 at around the same time as the 720. That PS4 must also have a much better controller...or
2) Sony can just sell the new controller as an add-on. I would just sell or bundle the add-on controller.
So my bet is that the PS3 will be at least 7 yrs old before the PS4 comes out. The PS3 is that much future-proof.
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