Nintendo: Wii will be as successful as Playstation 2

Nintendo: 35 million Wii's in US by 2012

With over 5.4 million units sold in the US, the Xbox 360 is currently the frontrunner in the next-gen console race. However, the Wii is catching up fast. Though it's only been on the market since November, the motion-sensing, $249 console has sold some 2.5 million units as of the end of April, according to the NPD Group. By contrast, the higher-priced PlayStation 3 has sold some 1.3 million units in the US.

The Wii's impressive start has made Nintendo confident--cocky, even--about the console's long-term viability. Today in an interview with the Bloomberg news service, Nintendo of America Senior Vice President of Marketing George Harrison predicted that there would be an installed base of 35 million Wiis in the US by 2012. For comparison purposes, the PlayStation 2 has sold 38.5 million units in the US since its release in October 2000. "Demand is much greater than we anticipated,'' he told Bloomberg. "A year ago no one thought we would be in this position.''

Harrison also brushed off the main criticism of the Wii--namely, that its processing and graphics power are low when compared to its rivals. "We're starting to see in the performance of the PS3 and Xbox 360 that that's not necessarily motivating the market the way it used to,'' he said, also shooting down speculation that a technically upgraded Wii would be launched any time soon. "We're going to start work on future technology only when we believe it's necessary," he said.

Source

35 million Wii's in the US by 2012 is basically as successful as Playstation 2.

Do you think they will make it? Or will 360 and PS3 outlast the Wii?

Here's my prediction:

IF the Wii get the games to support it, after opening this new market, Wii has a definitey chance of SURPASSING the PS2 in total sales... IF IT GETS THE GAMES TO BACK IT UP. 

They'll make it. The gamers will buy PS3/360 but will also buy a Wii for the traditional games like mario/manhunt/RE.

But the new markt N is trying to tap into as well vastly out weighs the gamer market. 

People can talk aboutt he Wii being outclasses by the graphics of the PS3/360, and that will affect gamers. But gamers will still buy the Wii becasue they are gamers and will want to play Mario and Brawl and such. Gamers are intrested in the Wiimote and VC as well. Also, the massive non-gamer/casual demographic will not be as impressed or swayed by the PS3/360's visuals.

Nintendo is really in a win/win situation being most gamers secondary console and every casuals primary console.

Anything is possible, so yeah I could see it happening.

I don't think it will be that high but I do think it will sell at least 15 million in the US by that time. They need to keep spreading out good non gamer titles but I think media attention will switch to PS3 next year especially, so that could hurt Wii sales since that is primarily what is driving sales right now.

Here's my prediction:

IF the Wii get the games to support it, after opening this new market, Wii has a definitey chance of SURPASSING the PS2 in total sales... IF IT GETS THE GAMES TO BACK IT UP.

MaxxxReebo

I could see it going, if they manage to bring out games in the amount they are this year. SMG, MP 3, SSBB, BWii, No More Heros, Dragon Quest Swords, etc, etc.... I mean there's so much, I'm kind of curious what's in store for next year? Disaster? Project H.A.M.M.E.R., and other new IPs? Will they be great enough and have the quality of Nintendo games like MP, Zelda, and Mario?yoshi_64

Ninty supposedly said Disaster and H.A.M.M.E.R. are going to be released as "drought fillers."

I don't think the Wii will be as successful as the PS2 for a variety of reasons. I think the DS will reach PS2 numbers but not a console such as the Wii. The Wii's time to shine is right now, not in two years when HDTV's are the norm and PS3/360 graphics are close to Crysis-like.SergeantSnitch

That's actually probably a good guess too.  

I think DS' competition is not very strong while Wii faces extremely heavy competition from the PS3 especially in 2008 when GTAIV, GT5, MGSIV and FFXIII will all be out on the market. 

I'm not saying Nintendo are going to be wrong with their predictions but they do seem slightly overconfident and they seem to be neglecting both the PS3 and 360.

The Wii has a couple of thing going against it in the long term.

1. Prices of the 360 and PS3 will fall to the magic $200 -$250 mark.  Thats when these systems start to sell in abundance.
2. HDTV's are becoming the norm, and quite fast.  360's and PS3's will be more popular every year that goes on.
3. Online gaming is becoming very important, Nintendo's Online service is vitually non-existant with most games.  And the service doesn't seem to be very well thought out.  It won't kill the casual market too much, but might keep lots of more hardcore gamers away.

The Wii should do great for the next year or two, but don't expect the numbers to be like they are now after that time.

Overall, the Wii has done extremely well, and over it's life cycle will do very well, that is pretty much a given. But it's rabid selling pace will gradually fall over the next few years, but not this year.

Here's my prediction:

IF the Wii get the games to support it, after opening this new market, Wii has a definitey chance of SURPASSING the PS2 in total sales... IF IT GETS THE GAMES TO BACK IT UP. 

MaxxxReebo

I think Nintendo will be able to reel in lots of uber-casuals with games like Wii-Sports, Brain Training and Wii-Music (or whatever its called). But they indeed need the 3rd party support to get the normal casuals and hardcore gamers who arent that big fans of Nintendo games.

The Wii has a couple of thing going against it in the long term.

1. Prices of the 360 and PS3 will fall to the magic $200 -$250 mark.  Thats when these systems start to sell in abundance.
2. HDTV's are becoming the norm, and quite fast.  360's and PS3's will be more popular every year that goes on.
3. Online gaming is becoming very important, Nintendo's Online service is vitually non-existant with most games.  And the service doesn't seem to be very well thought out.  It won't kill the casual market too much, but might keep lots of more hardcore gamers away.

The Wii should do great for the next year or two, but don't expect the numbers to be like they are now after that time.

Overall, the Wii has done extremely well, and over it's life cycle will do very well, that is pretty much a given. But it's rabid selling pace will gradually fall over the next few years, but not this year.

AgentVX

1. The price of the Wii can easier be lowered than the price of the PS3 and 360, as Nintendo makes quite a bit of profit from each sold console/
2. I somehow doubt that. I think HD-TVs hardly affect your console choice. Your console choice probably affects your TV choice though.
3. Yeah true, that could indeed become an obstacle for Nintendo in the future.

[QUOTE="AgentVX"]

The Wii has a couple of thing going against it in the long term.

1. Prices of the 360 and PS3 will fall to the magic $200 -$250 mark. Thats when these systems start to sell in abundance.
2. HDTV's are becoming the norm, and quite fast. 360's and PS3's will be more popular every year that goes on.
3. Online gaming is becoming very important, Nintendo's Online service is vitually non-existant with most games. And the service doesn't seem to be very well thought out. It won't kill the casual market too much, but might keep lots of more hardcore gamers away.

The Wii should do great for the next year or two, but don't expect the numbers to be like they are now after that time.

Overall, the Wii has done extremely well, and over it's life cycle will do very well, that is pretty much a given. But it's rabid selling pace will gradually fall over the next few years, but not this year.

Can-o-Mark

1. The price of the Wii can easier be lowered than the price of the PS3 and 360, as Nintendo makes quite a bit of profit from each sold console/
2. I somehow doubt that. I think HD-TVs hardly affect your console choice. Your console choice probably affects your TV choice though.
3. Yeah true, that could indeed become an obstacle for Nintendo in the future.

1. What I am saying is that when the 360 and PS3 comes down to that "Magic Price Point", it will take away much of the casuals market that the Wii is currently enjoying.  The Wii will always be priced cheaper, but casuals will be much more inclined to buy a 360 or PS3 at $249.99 then what they are priced at now.
2. I do believe that when you buy a HD TV, that you want to utilize it to it's fullest capabilities, something the Wii can't do, and the 360 and PS3 can.  Of course you do have a very valid point, but never the less, there is a huge chuck of consumers with this mindset, and that included myself.
3. My online comment is valid as you stated, but that is something that Nintendo itself can fix.  Whether they do this or not will be seen in time.

Wii's appeal won't last that long. The outdated technology won't even last 2 years so it's farfetch to say 2012.NobuoMusicMaker

Another fanboy that think 'teh technology' is what sells. 

They are a little too overconfident imo , but then again Peter Moore's goal is to sell 100 million 360s and Sony says the same thing.

[QUOTE="SergeantSnitch"]I don't think the Wii will be as successful as the PS2 for a variety of reasons. I think the DS will reach PS2 numbers but not a console such as the Wii. The Wii's time to shine is right now, not in two years when HDTV's are the norm and PS3/360 graphics are close to Crysis-like.drewtwo99

That's actually probably a good guess too.  

I'm right with you guys

I don't think the Wii will get THAT good in sales.

The amount of people who wanted DVD players were much more than people who want to play games. 

It won't sell as much as the PS2. Thats a number nintendo has never reached even in their prime NES/SNES days.

Wii is not PS2, but it will  probably sell about 50-60 million total worldwide. A far reach from PS2's 100 mil.

Well, it would sure be amazing if the Wii did surpass the PS2, but I think there's a very fair chance.

Either way, Nintendo has come back BIG TIME, with rocketing sales of the DS, coupled with the superb Wii sales.

Five or six years ago, everybody would laugh in your face if you said that Nintendo would rise again, but those people have been proven wrong.

wii is boring, its like

gamecube with zelda/metroid and its mario games with a new motion controller.

the games that support motion are mediocrew at best, i never got bored of a game within 30 mins and wii was the first.

wii was fun for the time being but the fun dont last long.

 im not being a fanboy its straight u truth. many of my friends/cousins that own it were like 'nah i dont play it anymore, its mad boring now'. but they do add that zelda was pretty good.

when the price drop for ps3 and xbox and better games come out people who own wii will be fast converters.

it seriously gets boring. realll boring. i find myself back on pc or other consoles more than on wii.

The only thing I see killing the Wii's sales is that it will be completely outclassed by the graphics of the competition. I mean considering what we're seeing under 2 years after the 360 launched, I think we can expect some very impressive looking games coming on both the 360 and PS3, games that look much better than the prettiest of Gears screenshots. Not to metion PC games. Also there is still the gimmick factor to consider, for all we know in a year we'll all be talking about how stupid the Wii was.pundog

IMHO, everything before and after Gears of War has not looked nearly as good, and Halo 3 beta looks hardly impressive at all. The next game that could honestly push console graphics will be Unreal Tournament 3 which uses the same engine as Gears, however it should be interesting to see if it actually can push the graphics past the bar that Gears set since the environments are generally different, some maps are enclosed areas and others are open ended where you can get into a Raptor and fly around, and you need consistant resolutions when you are faced with that, plus you dont want slow downs during the game so consistancy can be a problem.

It won't sell as much as the PS2. Thats a number nintendo has never reached even in their prime NES/SNES days.

Wii is not PS2, but it will  probably sell about 50-60 million total worldwide. A far reach from PS2's 100 mil.

 

Bread_or_Decide

So you actually think that Sony or Microsoft could beat that this gen? Not with the price of their consoles, plus you also have to include the fanbase, there has always been a larger Sony fanbase, if anything the 360 will eventually be losing to the PS3 if Sony can stay consistant with good games and get enough developer support for big titles, since the 360's fanbase is so small.