Pachter says: 1. Wii 2. PS3 3. 360

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter is no stranger to the gaming scene. In fact, it's his job to guesstimate, speculate, and estiguess on all things gaming, and in his latest report (via IndustryGamers), he paints the future for all three console manufacturers.

First up is Nintendo, a company that Pachter believes will remain in the top spot throughout this console generation. Due to the Wii's "low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions." Pachter thinks that Nintendo will rest easy atop the gaming mountain. And he thinks the Wii HD is a big part of it, as Pachter firmly believes Nintendo will introduce a HD-compatible Wii at some point, even as early as next year.

Then there's Sony and its PS3. Pointing to Sony's win in the Blu-ray vs HD DVD war, Pachter says the PS3 will capture "significant market share" through this alone, and says the company will take second place. Regardless, Pachter sees the PS3 and Xbox 360 sharing very similar market share at the conclusion of this generation.

Moving on to Microsoft, Pachter believes the company will end this generation in third, largely due to the console's inability to sell in Japan. Pachter downplays the "losing" angle, however, stating that he believes Microsoft will sell twice as many Xbox 360s as the company did the original Xbox, which, granted it actually happens, would be a nice feather in Microsoft's cap. Joystiq

Please, for conversations sake, give some reasons why you agree or disagree. No one really cares what you think of Pachter himself. Its about context folks. Take the points made IN THIS QUOTE and base your opinion from those. Please.
(had to make this bigger because some people can't read past two sentences without losing concentration)

Discuss.

He used to say PS3 would win.

His credibility < 0

pachther also says a wii hd is coming out soon and the ps3 is making moneyhy4k

Wii's "low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions.

He does realise the 360 has two out of three of these things? The only thing keeping the wii infront is the control scheme and nothing more. Why do people even bother taking on this guy baffels me.

I'll believe it when i see it.

Won't stop me from buying a PS3 this weekend though. :P

I'll believe it when i see it.

Won't stop me from buying a PS3 this weekend though. :P

Lionheart08

esp maybe its not just the controller maybe its the variety in games

look at past consoles gc and xbox relied on more fps or racers then other genres while ps2 had many genres covered, including rpg

same for ps1 gen , ,

n64 relied on fpses and 3d platformer or racing ,over what ps1 offered which is everything

nes and snes offered everything there was at their respective time, given that fpses werent big on consoels back then ,,

only 1 fps i played on snes was doom ,

so ya

kinda shows why wii is selling,

its games may not be track on npd sales each month but their selling ,

cant over look that ,

in fact when i was looking for driver paralel lines lAUNCH DAY I COU LDNT FIND IT at walmart at all ,

they kept saying sold out ,

lol ,

i had to go to gamestop

to actually find a used copy

lol ,

[QUOTE="Lionheart08"]

I'll believe it when i see it.

Won't stop me from buying a PS3 this weekend though. :P

mitu123

Yeah, the summer program I work for is coming to a close this week and instead of getting paid weekly/bi-weekly we get one big pay check at the end. A local Gamestop still has some 60GBs so I'm planning to get that and one or two games.

well i agree with him. wiht out japan, the 360 isnt really going to make grounds there. also MS having a 1 year head start , to only be 7mill ahead of hte ps3 doesnt say much. they should be at least 15-20mil ahead of the ps3.i cant imagine the ps3 sales are going to be like when FF13 start selling over there.

He doesn't give enough compelling reasons. He needs to flesh out his argument.

[QUOTE="mitu123"][QUOTE="Lionheart08"]

I'll believe it when i see it.

Won't stop me from buying a PS3 this weekend though. :P

Lionheart08

Yeah, the summer program I work for is coming to a close this week and instead of getting paid weekly/bi-weekly we get one big pay check at the end. A local Gamestop still has some 60GBs so I'm planning to get that and one or two games.

[QUOTE="Lionheart08"]

[QUOTE="mitu123"] Wait, you are, congrats.mitu123

Yeah, the summer program I work for is coming to a close this week and instead of getting paid weekly/bi-weekly we get one big pay check at the end. A local Gamestop still has some 60GBs so I'm planning to get that and one or two games.

[QUOTE="mitu123"][QUOTE="Lionheart08"]

Yeah, the summer program I work for is coming to a close this week and instead of getting paid weekly/bi-weekly we get one big pay check at the end. A local Gamestop still has some 60GBs so I'm planning to get that and one or two games.

siLVURcross

I'm guessing newer since he said it doesn't have it.

Sucks though, BC 60GB goes for $430 at Gamestop. Price I have to play just so I can still play PS2 games. :P

[QUOTE="mitu123"][QUOTE="Lionheart08"]

Yeah, the summer program I work for is coming to a close this week and instead of getting paid weekly/bi-weekly we get one big pay check at the end. A local Gamestop still has some 60GBs so I'm planning to get that and one or two games.

siLVURcross

I'm going to ignore the opening and say that Pachter is wrong so often it should be considered trolling to use anything he says.

Anyway, I might consider what he is saying possible but its so hard because in theory, the PS3 needs to outsell the 360 by 6-8 million units iin Japan to negate NA's effect. With the PS3 sellin worse year to year in NA and the 360 selling better in Japan it just seems the closest Sony can get to is a tie.

[QUOTE="siLVURcross"][QUOTE="mitu123"] Lucky, you got the BC one, mine doesn't have it, I think, it's 80 GB.Lionheart08

I'm guessing newer since he said it doesn't have it.

Sucks though, BC 60GB goes for $430 at Gamestop. Price I have to play just so I can still play PS2 games. :P

[QUOTE="siLVURcross"][QUOTE="mitu123"] Lucky, you got the BC one, mine doesn't have it, I think, it's 80 GB.mitu123

LOL!!! ok sales:

Wii>xbox360>PS3

Pouularity:

Wii>xbox360>PS3

Hardcore:

Xbox360>Wii>Ps3

Notice a trend in last place?

He doesn't give enough compelling reasons. He needs to flesh out his argument.

Tragic_Kingdom7

3rd by 2015. We've got 6 years to go. 2009 trends go against that. We'll see what happens in 2010.

I think he does. You have Wii still selling like gang-busters. And one major flaw for it compared to the other two is the lack of HD. When they do the Wii-HD that issue will no longer exist. In fact, it will almost be like a new console launch, I'm sure, with all of the hype that goes with it. If anyone even mermers the word Wii the general public starts to lick their lips.PoppaGamer

Wii HD will be a monster. There were some pics of a Wii ******** that was rendering games at 720p and it looked really nice. In all honesty, that could be enough for the Wii crowd. A tech increase like that would be chump change, it'd be a significant improvement over the current option for people with a HDTV, and most important: it's an improvement that doesn't segregate the market at all. 100% backwards and forwards capability. You could probably ship that out the door at the same price that the Wii sells for at that time and still make a profit on every system. They're probably charge more solely because people would be skeptical about buying the "new improved" for the same price as the old. But lets say Nintendo actually threw in tech that was like "two 360s duck taped together". That would be a MASSIVE improvement over what the Wii can do and it still wouldn't break the bank.

On PS3, blu-ray is a big deal. Well, it will become more and more of a big deal, especially when this recession starts to fade a little more and people start buying more HDTV's and fun electronics. As that happens, and with a price cut, the PS3 will become a great way fro people to get blu-ray in there homes with the gaming capabilities to go with it. A lot like how the PS2 did so well last gen. This isn't saying that PS3 will crush the 360 or anything. It will be close. But I think the blu-ray help the PS3 overtake the 360.PoppaGamer

I think Blu-Ray becomes less and less relevant as time goes on. The $100 Blu-Ray player is already here. Once we start getting down to real deal sub $100 players ($90 and less) I don't think people will care about the PS3 playing Blu-Rays. Not when you already have like 1 or 2 stand alones in your house.

The 360's big lead on the other two consoles on library is already starting to fade. And if Natal isn't a huge success for them, it will be tough for them to compete without that "must have" feel from the public. But you never know..PoppaGamer

I don't think Natal is going to fail. There are 3 major franchises for the 360: Fable, Gears and Halo. They've got the brain behind Fable working on it. I think Peter M is the perfect guy. He dreams big and talks big. He doesn't always deliver on everything he says, but he always shoots for the stars and most important: the games turn out good. Peter M is not going to a make something like Wii shovelware where you just shoehorn in motion controls into a game that'd work better with a controller. He's going to go from the ground up and bust his hump to make something really unique. Thats what Natal needs to suceed. Other devs would probably just go the shovelware route, which is gonna be failure. I don't know if Peter M will be able to deliver on everything that he says, but he'll probably but at least he's got the vision to go for it. Worst comes to worst, you'll get a good game out of it.

On top of that they've got Rare working on it. They haven't seen huge success this gen but they do make good games. I think their issue is this: the make Nintendo style games but they make them on a console that's not Nintendo so their isn't really the market. If MS is really trying to go old school/casual/family fun, these guys are the ones who can crank out a title aimed at that group.

Then you have the hardcore crowd. With the rumor of Halo Reach being on Natal (not sure i buy that rumor, but lets assume its true), that might be enough to at least get them to buy the add-on. Assuming the gap between reach and ODST will be the same as Halo 3 and Reach, Bungie will have been working on this game for 3 years. I'll assume that by that time they'll have the gameplay worked so that it's perfect on Natal. Halo is all MS needs to get something into a gangload of houses... which is all Natal needs.

I think he does. You have Wii still selling like gang-busters. And one major flaw for it compared to the other two is the lack of HD. When they do the Wii-HD that issue will no longer exist. In fact, it will almost be like a new console launch, I'm sure, with all of the hype that goes with it. If anyone even mermers the word Wii the general public starts to lick their lips. On PS3, blu-ray is a big deal. Well, it will become more and more of a big deal, especially when this recession starts to fade a little more and people start buying more HDTV's and fun electronics. As that happens, and with a price cut, the PS3 will become a great way fro people to get blu-ray in there homes with the gaming capabilities to go with it. A lot like how the PS2 did so well last gen. This isn't saying that PS3 will crush the 360 or anything. It will be close. But I think the blu-ray help the PS3 overtake the 360. The 360's big lead on the other two consoles on library is already starting to fade. And if Natal isn't a huge success for them, it will be tough for them to compete without that "must have" feel from the public. But you never know..PoppaGamer

1) I doubt HD is going to benefit Nintendo's market strategy in any way. Their expanded market consists of people who dont really care about HD. It doesn't make sense for Nintendo to try and adopt characteristics of the other systems when they benefited from not going the HD route. That doesn't mean Nintendo won't add HD to their systems eventually, but the lack of it doesn't matter as far as market position.

2) I don't think it matters much that 360's library lead is starting to shrink. As long as the libraries are similar, people are likely to go with the cheaper option. And about the recession: we'll probably come out of the recession really damaged. People assume that people are going to turn into big consumers again. It's more likely that people will be more conservative with their money after this recession. I think this recession is going to usher in a post-consumerism period. This latest recession was not any old recession. We're going to be hurting for a few years to come.

3) Blu-Ray actually helped PS3 quite a bit when it was outselling the 360. But Blu-Ray simply can't compete with a distinct price advantage. When 360 was being beat by the PS3, it didn't have the kind of price advantage it does now. What PS3 needs to have any dream of overtaking the PS3 is a very competitive price point that has longevity, not a small token price cut.

4) They don't really need a "must have" feel from the public to keep beating the PS3, they simply need to be a similar, cheaper alternative. They would need a "must have" feel to beat the Wii.

I can see those predictions coming true regardless of how I feel about Pachter. He's an okay guy. Anyway in regards to the PS3 finishing second I can see that actually happening. Its alot of people who specifically want just a PS3 but are waiting for the price to drop. Those people probably wont buy a 360 or wii regardless of how low the price drops for those respective systems. The wii passed up the 360 in sales this gen after coming out almost a year later. Anything can happen this gen and for people to write off the PS3 as finishing third is kind of absurd. This the same system people used to bash because of its lack of decent games. Now its getting AAA games on a regular basis. Anything can happen and this gen is far from over.

[QUOTE="PoppaGamer"] where did i say anything about finding the quote? [QUOTE="PoppaGamer"] Where have you seen Pachter say the PS3 is making money? Not saying it untrue, just don't remember it myself. Link? hy4k

And....uh.... wasn't there a little request I posted about not caring what you think of Pachter himself? Can't you just talk about the subject at hand and give us an explaination on your take?PoppaGamer

With the way PS3 has been building up, i believe it. Sony is really getting their s*** together lately, they just need to make a real blow in the mainstream market and this prediction will come true.

I cant leave a comment though and not talk about pachter, he also said the ps3 would end up in first, not second, but first, and that is over the wii and 360, like his job says he just guesses. I am not a fan of his guesses, but he is a good guest on bonus round on gametrailers.com

I find myself agreeing for a couple reasons:

1) Japan

2) Final Fantasy and Japan

3) Sony's strongest titles are yet to come out

I do believe Sony can make it to second place, but lets not pretend MS is not going to do anything about it. The 360's strategy seems to be to continously slash prices which is good enough to keep it ahead of Sony. Not only that, but Sony itself needs a price drop in order to make any significant changes.

Reason #4) PS3 Slim (cheaper, more focused around games).

Sony just needs to play their cards right, but people seem to be forgetting that whatever Sony does to catch MS, MS will be right there to make sure they keep themselves a step ahead too.

You seriously think Sony wont havea PS4 ready for the next gen???!!! Wow.smh

coltsfan4ever

i seriously think after continuing to lose billions they will be unable to launch a console any time soon

and if next gen is all about motion control they've already failed with their wii remote knockoff

[QUOTE="PoppaGamer"] it was the same as your source, but the original article Notwithstanding the projected finish, we truly believe that all three manufacturers should be considered 'winners', with Microsoft selling twice as many Xbox 360s as Xboxes and building a robust Xbox Live business, and with the other two companies generating significant profits from their respective shares.hy4k

Dude he was talking about in the future, by the end of the gen. He made no claims about profit now...

And....uh.... wasn't there a little request I posted about not caring what you think of Pachter himself? Can't you just talk about the subject at hand and give us an explaination on your take?PoppaGamer

I disagree. Compared to last gen, yes, PS3 is far from the PS2. But they still have some great successes to build on. And we have yet to see a lot of the prior gens popular IP's to enter this gen, like Twisted Metal. PS3 is far from palying all of its cards. Farther than 360 which only has so much history to pull from besides Halo.

And your walkman comparison is flawed. Walkman didn'tdidn't introducea brand new, currently exclusive on consoles,medium that will be desired more and more as time goes on. Just the fact that blu-ray won because of PS3 is a HUGE plus for Sony in the future, for ALL divisions. Not to mention they have done a TON of work on getting PSN going. Which will be a fully developed, growing service as we enter next gen.

And I think you last statement says it all, "PS3 may eke out a second place win in the end, but it'll be meaningless as no-one buys games for the piece of crap and we'll be on the cusp of next gen. a gen i dont expect sony to participate in." If you're gonna count sales from the 360's start when it was alone (and you should) you also have to count ALL sales for the ENTIRE gen for the PS3. You can't cut it up to make some point. Eithr talk about sales as a whole or don't talk about them at all. Like we're gonna look back at this gen and say, "I know console 'X' didn't sell the most but it sure outsold console "Y" for a year or two" :roll:

Anyway in regards to the PS3 finishing second I can see that actually happening. Its alot of people who specifically want just a PS3 but are waiting for the price to drop. Those people probably wont buy a 360 or wii regardless of how low the price drops for those respective systems. coltsfan4ever

This kind of reasoning is so PS3-centric as to lose all pespective.

It's not about people "waiting for a PS3 pricedrop". That will lead to a small andtemporary sales burstsat best.It's about what will look like the most economic option to the average consumer who is not biased, but are evaluating all the options. That is largest consumer base and it is those people that will facilitate long-term growth.The people who are simply waiting for a PS3 make up a small audience in comparison and are not nearly as important. It's kind of absurd that you think that it somehow matters that the a system like the Wii that pulls in all new demographicswon't get some PS3 holdouts. Microsoft and Nintendo wouldn't mind having some of those "waiting for a PS3" folks onboard, but they are mostly targerting the swing consumers.

And I can guarantee you that price advantages of the Wii and 360 will absolutely matter to unbiased swing consumers.

What the PS3 needs is something that makes it seem different enough from the 360 to justify the higher price. Right now that difference doesn't exist. The two platforms are extremely similar in almost every way except for reliability andprice.

pachther also says a wii hd is coming out soon and the ps3 is making moneyhy4k

really why would anyone listen to pachter he said the twitter/facebook announcement for 360 was the biggest at e3 please what an idiot

Pachter?

You mean the guy that's always wrong?

Pachter?

You mean the guy that's always wrong?

Pachter?

You mean the guy that's always wrong?

treedoor

This is what I hate about SW. You could have the biggest moron in the world say, "1+1 = 2" and people here would be like, "nope, he too stupid. Everyone knows 1+1 = 4." :roll:

Saying the PS3 is going to come in second because of sales in Japan is pretty ridiculous considering the sales of the PS3 in Japan is rather inconsequential next to NA and Europe. The sales lead the PS3 enjoys annually in Japan is made irrelevant by the much bigger lead the 360 enjoys and increases each year in NA.

I guess you have to wait till 2015 to find out. :|

[QUOTE="coltsfan4ever"]Anyway in regards to the PS3 finishing second I can see that actually happening. Its alot of people who specifically want just a PS3 but are waiting for the price to drop. Those people probably wont buy a 360 or wii regardless of how low the price drops for those respective systems. Tragic_Kingdom7

This kind of reasoning is so PS3-centric as to lose all pespective.

It's not about people "waiting for a PS3 pricedrop". That will lead to a small andtemporary sales burstsat best.It's about what will look like the most economic option to the average consumer who is not biased, but are evaluating all the options. That is largest consumer base and it is those people that will facilitate long-term growth.The people who are simply waiting for a PS3 make up a small audience in comparison and are not nearly as important. It's kind of absurd that you think that it somehow matters that the a system like the Wii that pulls in all new demographicswon't get some PS3 holdouts. Microsoft and Nintendo wouldn't mind having some of those "waiting for a PS3" folks onboard, but they are mostly targerting the swing consumers.

And I can guarantee you that price advantages of the Wii and 360 will absolutely matter to unbiased swing consumers.

What the PS3 needs is something that makes it seem different enough from the 360 to justify the higher price. Right now that difference doesn't exist. The two platforms are extremely similar in every way except for reliability price.

really why would anyone listen to pachter he said the twitter/facebook announcement for 360 was the biggest at e3 please what an idiot

kiddoom93

and pachter isnt wrong all the time. if he is, why does he still have his job?

[QUOTE="coltsfan4ever"]You seriously think Sony wont havea PS4 ready for the next gen???!!! Wow.smh

hy4k

i seriously think after continuing to lose billions they will be unable to launch a console any time soon

and if next gen is all about motion control they've already failed with their wii remote knockoff

really why would anyone listen to pachter he said the twitter/facebook announcement for 360 was the biggest at e3 please what an idiot

Please, for conversations sake, give some reasons why you agree or disagree. No one really cares what you think of Pachter himself. Its about context folks. Take the points made IN THIS QUOTE and base your opinion from those. Please.(had to make this bigger because some people can't read past two sentences without losing concentration)>Discuss.PoppaGamer

[QUOTE="Tragic_Kingdom7"]

[QUOTE="coltsfan4ever"]Anyway in regards to the PS3 finishing second I can see that actually happening. Its alot of people who specifically want just a PS3 but are waiting for the price to drop. Those people probably wont buy a 360 or wii regardless of how low the price drops for those respective systems. coltsfan4ever

This kind of reasoning is so PS3-centric as to lose all pespective.

It's not about people "waiting for a PS3 pricedrop". That will lead to a small andtemporary sales burstsat best.It's about what will look like the most economic option to the average consumer who is not biased, but are evaluating all the options. That is largest consumer base and it is those people that will facilitate long-term growth.The people who are simply waiting for a PS3 make up a small audience in comparison and are not nearly as important. It's kind of absurd that you think that it somehow matters that the a system like the Wii that pulls in all new demographicswon't get some PS3 holdouts. Microsoft and Nintendo wouldn't mind having some of those "waiting for a PS3" folks onboard, but they are mostly targerting the swing consumers.

And I can guarantee you that price advantages of the Wii and 360 will absolutely matter to unbiased swing consumers.

What the PS3 needs is something that makes it seem different enough from the 360 to justify the higher price. Right now that difference doesn't exist. The two platforms are extremely similar in every way except for reliability price.

You didn't bring any real evidence to the debate, all you said is that PS2 fans want to upgrade to PS3s instead of the other consoles but want a price drop. That is nothing more than speculative data, there is no proof in what you said, just assumption. You have too many "IMOs" and not enough, "IMOs BEACAUSE OF SO AND SO". I can't even attack this post much because there is much too it, it all stems off of its and buts, which are useless in a debate without evidence to back them up. And yeah, the PS3 and 360 are extremely similar, they play 90% of the same games, have similar games, similar online structure, similar tech, similar everything. Bluray and paing for online are hardly relevant differences but alas, you don't seem to want to here the other side.