Shooters are obviously the only games that push 360 sales. GeOW and Halo 3 will be the top sellers.
Congratulations, you appeal to one market. Your system has other great games in other genres, but most 360 owners don't seem to care because Halo outsells any other game 10:1. I feel really bad for MS, because they really should have been sky rocketing in sales this whole time with such a great lineup - but only see sales increase when a GeOW or Halo is released.
But they arn't sky rocketing, because in the real world, most people who buy 360s are in it for Halo, madden, and GTA. Sad, but true.
Sony is playing a whole different game, infact they won the game last gen without even using the shooter market. They appeal to everyone, casual and hardcore. The franchises that are on the playstation brand, sell quite closely to each other. Final Fantasises sell 6-9 mil per installment. As do Metal Gears. Ratchet and Clanks sell a solid 2.5 mil per game, as do God of Wars. Gran Turismo 3 sold 14.5 million, and GT4 sold 8 million. Tekken sells 4-6 million. They are all selling very well, and not beating each other by ridiculous amounts like Halo does.
Sony's games, for some reason, appeal to more people.
A game like Ninja Gaiden had a hard time reaching one million copies sold, and it was one of the greatest action games ever made. Halo sold 10 mil.
Now your excuse here may be, "well hey, the shooter market is probably alot bigger than action games". And that's probably true.
So why does a car racing sim on the PS2 manage to land 14.5 million copies sold, and a better car racing sim on the Xbox only manages to land 1 mil?
Your new excuse may be, "the PS2's userbase was much larger than the Xbox's". Again, true. But now you have to think of how that userbase got so huge -- games, games, games.
So what doe we see this gen? The same damn thing. Let's say Halo 3 magically pushes 10 million consoles this Christmas (disgustingly unrealistic I know). It ends it's year at 20 million installed userbase. Then what? Do you think Jimmy Joe the Halo player who plays football afterschool is going to come home and play Mass Effect and Ninja Gaiden 2? No. And this is when sales return to their normal slowness, where MS would be lucky to sell 2 mil per year.
Now lets say more realistically, MS ends this year with 13-14 million 360s sold. PS3 will probably bet at 6 mil. Now calculate an inevitable PS3 price drop along with the previous franchises mentioned -- I wouldnt be suprised if the Wii had trouble competing with such a force.
PS3 will still be behind the 360 by 1-2 mil at the end of 08 - I'm calling it.
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