When Sony first announced that the Ps3 would be $599 USD, Ps2 fanboys were split into two groups....
Group 1: The ppl who said "Screw it, I'm getting a 360 instead"
Group 2: The ppl who said "I'll play my Ps2 for now and pick up a Ps3 when it's cheaper
Why is this good for Ps3's future? Because those who wanted a 360, already have one. It's biggest games have all come out, and it's been cheap for quite a while now. Ps3 in contrast, still hasn't hit that $300 sweet spot that everyone can afford. AND Ps3's two biggest franchises haven't been released yet: Gran Turismo 5 and God of War III.
Now Ps2 had over 150million unit sold. Ps3 and 360 put together have only sold about 50million units....So where do you think the rest of those Ps2 owners are? They are from group 2.....the ppl waiting for a price drop before they pick up a Ps3.
Is there any doubt Ps3's will be flying off the shelves once there is a price cut? Do ppl really think 360 will still be outselling Ps3 when it hits $300???
killerbeejp
I commend you for putting some thought into this argument, but I don't think it makes sense for a few reasons.
1. I think your two-group paradigm is incorrect. I think there is a two-group paradigm, but I don't think it consists of what you say it consists of. I think it really goes like this:
Group 1: core Sony users.
Group 2: casuals.
Casuals make up a way larger percentage of the PS2's sales and those are the people that basically said, "Screw the PS3!" and bought Wiis and 360s. Those people are not going to go for a PS3 simply because they had a PS2. They might go for the PS3 for other reasons, but not due to owning a PS2. I think that people should stopusing brand loyalty in arguments. Brand loyalty is not very powerful as Sony found out. The reason brand loyalty is not very powerful is because there is only a small group of "core users" of a particular and the rest of the audience are kind of like swing voters. Sony needs to capture more of these "swing consumers".
I don't think that saying that there are still alot of "core Sony users" waiting for a price cut is a good assumption. The core users, by and large, probably all ready have PS3's. In a nutshell, I think you're probably wrong that the remaining PS2 gamers belong to what you defined as group 2. Your group 2 might exist in some form, but if so, it's a small group.
I think the real problem with your paradigm is that you are limiting it to PS2 fanboys, which is just not a big group in the scheme of things and thus the way they distribute themselves is going to have way less of an impact than how casuals distribute themselves among consoles.
2. I don't think "big franchises" argument sticks are you pretty much have to have a crystal ball to verify such a thing.
3. I don't think you can support the assertion that "those who want a 360 all ready have one".
4. As someone else said, $300 is not the sweet spot price point. I see no reason to believe the PS3=300$ automatically will mean PS3's outsell 360's. 360 after all is still the cheaper HD console and that will still matter. I do think a price cut can only help though.
5. The fact that you limit your analysis to the 360 and the PS3 weakens your overall argument. The Wii mostly likely took a greater chunk of the PS2 userbase than the 360.
Log in to comment