Many topics and discussions talkf about PS3 being doomed or not.
It is easy to defend PS3, saying that PS1 wasn´t a clear winner in its first years, and PS2 wasn´t a clear year until later years.
It is easy to attack PS3 on current sales (from a year ago) and exclusives loss.
Taking into account several factors you can make SOLID predictions not made out of a "magic ball" or the writer's sleeve; if you want to say it in more direct words: see if a console is bound to doom.
PS's sales aren't secret to anyone. Theuy are in last place. It has several meanings if taken into account. First, that the initial fanbase shifted from console, are waiting for a system seller or they are waiting till a price drop (which didn't happen).
Exclusives shifting to another console, or developers complaining how hard it is to develop specifically for PS's architecture is something to take in account. It means that if developers do not have the feel of making games there, it will be harder to produce something good.
Last gen, PS2 was a hit. Sadly, previous fanbase means absolutely HECK. PRoof? N64 to NGC.
Next year has only 2 REAL system sellers. MGS4 and FF13. 1 year, to get a system seller?? That is simply a year lost.
Games have flopped hard. Perhaps mass media doesn't care what GS says, but it is an indicator of how games on the console are going.
There is still another thing. 360. 360 presents a SIMILAR offer of PS3. Maybe in japan 360 is bound to fail (but that istheme of another post) but, in the rest of the world it is a contestant. SOmething parallel ofPepsi and Coke. They aregiving similar offers (HD,Seriousonline, epic hardcore games). 360 is taking a lot of PS3's fans.
Online presents another important point. Live system is without doubt a hit. Gamerscore has made fans play games only for the sake of gamescore. PS3 hasn´t a hit as big as that. Yes, the house system is nice, but not as good, and right now, PS3 online, is at the same level of Nintendo´s (which is lame, if you think so).
Wii also is something to take into account. It presents a different offers. Many pick and play, and the wiimote capabilities. ANyone who is wishingfor something different will buy Ninty, either as first, or second option. If it isfor second option, hardly will be 3 consoles on a same household. Most probably,Wii-360 will be the winning combo.
Taking all these things into accounts, you still think that with only 2 really expected games for 2008, PS3 will rocketlaunch? No. It will sink. Either Wii or 360 have everything to get 1-2 place in this console wars. PS3 has all in his hand to get last place in this console race.
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