Appreciate you taking the time here, I'm enjoying this exchange.
Fortunately, Nintendo puts out more than Mario and Zelda on an annual basis. Ever heard of Astral Chain? or Nintendo Labo? ARMS?
Can't say I'm a fan of those game, but granted.
Those series died not due to poor sales, but due to lack of new ideas as I mentioned. Pilotwings got a 3DS game, but aside from that, not much else, since there doesn't seem to be much left to take the series. Like I said, Nintendo will bring back an IP if they or someone they know has any good ideas for it. Kid Icarus was seemingly dead until Uprising came along, and that's because Sakurai had a radical idea for where to take the property. Nintendo prides itself on being unique, even from itself a lot of the time. If the team can't find some new element or gameplay style to put into their games that fits, then it's probably not worth making, at least not in-house.
I wholeheartedly disagree with this. It's a poor, transparent excuse by Miyamoto in trying to deflect from their neglection of longstanding properties, and looking at their current games evidences as much.
Don't you find it curious how Nintendo's best sellers and biggest games always seem to have new ideas to justify their existence? That's not a coincidence. Nothing new that Nintendo includes in their sequels is so significant gameplay-wise that it justifies one IP above another, and especially to the extent that the others are ignored for so many years. Perhaps they'll add one or two novelties, but the games are largely the same in their basic concepts, premises, and mechanics that we have been enjoying for decades now. What did the newest Mario Kart introduce, for instance? Upside down gravity courses? Something of which is far more befitting of an IP with futuristic hovercrafts than a cartoony kart racer with wheels, yet the IP that seemingly was far more suited to this new idea was entirely ignored.
Even if this weren't true, I simply don't accept that Nintendo is incapable of thinking up new ideas for their older IPs. They could do it if they wanted to and I doubt the fans would complain much even if they didn't. People enjoy IPs for the known. General improvements are expected, but not the reinvention of the wheel or significant mechanical innovation every time, which is simply a flawed philosophy to hold when it gets to the point where valuable and beloved IPs are left on the floor that could be selling systems, bolstering their software catalog, broadening their appeal, bringing back older fans, leveraging nostalgia, and ultimately getting them more profit.
It's just bad business, and a large waste of their resources.
You have to remember that the bigger the budget, the more money you could potentially loose on the game, so Nintendo is very careful about not overspending on the games they produce, especially the niche, risky ones. Sure, a company with their net-worth can chew through an Ever Oasis or Astral Chain if they fail, but put too much money into those games, and a good chunk of that war chest can be gone in an instant.
You also need to remember that Nintendo runs an ecosystem, and their games are not products that stand by themselves. Their developmental investments shouldn't be viewed or determined on its RoI in exclusivity, but in the grand scheme of how they benefit the entire platform.
If they significantly invest in a game and it recoups only 50-75% of its developmental budget, that's not necessarily a loss. There are people out there who will buy a system for one game. Rest assured, Metroid Prime 4 (if great) will sell systems to people who otherwise may not have ever bought a Switch. So if Nintendo loses on 4's developmental budget, they very well may have gained more by selling many systems worth five times the game's cost to new customers. That's profit. They in addition bring people into their ecosystem who will buy further games to capitalize on their investment over the years. More profit. They may then subscribe to Nintendo Online. Even more profit. Nintendo will also have added more variety to their software catalog. Yet even more profit, and all of which helps offset the loss.
That potential cannot exist when Nintendo sits there determining which games they should allocate large amounts of money to predicated solely by viewing its success in exclusivity and not in the context of complimenting and nurturing a thriving ecosystem. And I'm sorry.....those smaller games and experiments that Nintendo does? They're not system sellers. Nor are the Marios or Zeldas that they do splurge on as the fan-base already exists. If Nintendo wishes to broaden their reach to new audiences, they should be investing heavily in uncertain bets that move away from their typical flavor (which games like ARMS and Splatoon, while nice to see, do not do).
And Nintendo's war chest can absorb more than a few large scale bombs. You know how much Nintendo's valued at in 2019? $85 billion. Not sure how much of that is liquid, but it's got to be a decent chunk.
Fortunately they do that. They splurge on big budget stuff Mario Odyssey and Breath of the Wild, games that also deconstruct and toss out conventions of their IP as well. Have younger staff, toy-around with mid-budget projects like ARMS and Nintendo Labo. And also take in low-mid budget projects from outside developers like Astral Chain and Snipperclips. Nintendo is one of the most well rounded major publishers on the market at the moment. Sure, there's room for improvement, like with their Western developed games, but the position they're in now is actually the best for them at the moment.
Yes, they splurge on assured bets, which again, does nothing to help gain new customers' interests. Nintendo may have a lot of output, but I'm not sure I'd consider them a well-rounded publisher. If they were, they'd pay more heed to the western market and be more fiscally liberal with games that wouldn't be sure bets.
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