Some thoughts on the PS3's future (MGS4, FF XIII)

Okay. Right now the PS3 is doing badly, in sales, price and games. Currently the xbox offers a generally superior experience for less money (yes, i know Live and repairs and the additional features make it cost more, but logic isn't helping PS3 sales any, so I'll ignore that).

So PS3 fans are saying that with the advent of MGS4 and FF XIII, PS3 sales will skyrocket and it'll be okay again for their console. For argument's sake, let's say that these games each sell 2 MILLION PS3s, which I personally think is generous. Let's look at current sales. I'll ignore the Wii, because that console is targeted towards a different audience. I know it matters, but I don't see it changinng the essential point I'm making.

PS3: 3.5 million sold

Xbox 360: 10 million sold

And the Xbox is currently selling twice the units per month that the PS3 is. Let's assume that Halo 3 is a normal game and won't sell 2 Million xbox 360s. Let's also assume that the GTA series, Assassin's Creed series, the Devil May Cry series, etc. will sell identical amounts on the xbox and Ps3, even though they obviously won't, since the two experiences will be more or less identical and the Xbox is 200 bucks cheaper (and has way better press and image right now.) So you can see that I'm giving the PS3 a lot of freebies which would normally decimate it further in the months to come.

Okay, so assuming that the consoles sell approximately the same ratio of around 2 xboxes : 1 PS3, and I'll give them 400k:200k sales a month by March 2008. This accounts for the xmas rush, and assuming somewhat increased sales overall.

this number isn't exact, but it looks like it'll be a decent indication. Understand I'm making assumptions, but the point is to get an idea o fwhere the consoles will be, not exactly how many exactly will be sold.

So at March 31st, 2008, sales will be at:

PS3: 5.3 Million sold

Xbox 360: 13.6 million sold

Then MGS4 and FF XIII hit, assuming they sell 2 million units in one day, and that the xbox doesn't sell any units at all (still giving the PS3 points), the sales all of a sudden are at

PS3: 9.3 million

Xbox 360: 13.6 million

TADA, even with the ridiculous PS3 assumptions, the Xbox is significantly ahead of the Ps3.

This is too bad, since I really do want the Ps3 to win (like its kind of games, like its hardware, had good experiences with the ps1 and ps2), but the PS3 looks completely screwed.

EDIT: Just wanted to clarify that I'm not sying the PS3 hs zero hope, but that its future looks really, really bad. I believe there's no certain way to tell until spring of 2009.

:oThat is true but the 360 also has nogood exclusive after Halo 3 , so as soon as the sony heavy hitters roll in there would be more units sold making the score with Ps3 a little behind, ahead, at eye level with the 360.

I have a 360 and a wii but Iam waiting for 2008Game of the Year MGS4 to buy a PS3.

PS3Heavy hitters: 360 Heavy Hitters:

Heavenly sowrd Mass Effect

MGS4 Bioshock

Jak 4:D Halo 3

Ratchet and Clank 5 Saints Row 2

Final fantasy 13 Lost oddessy

Final fantasy 13 versus Gears of War 2:D

Kingdom hearts 3 and other multi plats

God of war III

Resistance 2

Haze

and all of the multiplats

Out of all the PS3 exclusives, I'll list only the system sellers and rank them.

1. Final Fantasy XIII

2. Gran Turismo 5

3. Metal Gear Solid 4 Guns Of The Patriots

4. God Of War (PS3)

All four games will move PS3s out of the shelves and into homes. How many? Will they help surpass the Xbox 360's number? Time will tell. And unfortunately for Sony, time is something they don't have.

no game will sell a million consoles. im sry its the truth.OpticalCanine

Gran Turismo 3, Halo 2, Grand Theft Auto 3 did.

Okay. Right now the PS3 is doing badly, in sales, price and games. Currently the xbox offers a generally superior experience for less money (yes, i know Live and repairs and the additional features make it cost more, but logic isn't helping PS3 sales any, so I'll ignore that).

So PS3 fans are saying that with the advent of MGS4 and FF XIII, PS3 sales will skyrocket and it'll be okay again for their console. For argument's sake, let's say that these games each sell 2 MILLION PS3s, which I personally think is generous. Let's look at current sales. I'll ignore the Wii, because that console is targeted towards a different audience. I know it matters, but I don't see it changinng the essential point I'm making.

PS3: 3.5 million sold

Xbox 360: 10 million sold

And the Xbox is currently selling twice the units per month that the PS3 is. Let's assume that Halo 3 is a normal game and won't sell 2 Million xbox 360s. Let's also assume that the GTA series, Assassin's Creed series, the Devil May Cry series, etc. will sell identical amounts on the xbox and Ps3, even though they obviously won't, since the two experiences will be more or less identical and the Xbox is 200 bucks cheaper (and has way better press and image right now.) So you can see that I'm giving the PS3 a lot of freebies which would normally decimate it further in the months to come.

Okay, so assuming that the consoles sell approximately the same ratio of around 2 xboxes : 1 PS3, and I'll give them 400k:200k sales a month by March 2008. This accounts for the xmas rush, and assuming somewhat increased sales overall.

this number isn't exact, but it looks like it'll be a decent indication. Understand I'm making assumptions, but the point is to get an idea o fwhere the consoles will be, not exactly how many exactly will be sold.

So at March 31st, 2008, sales will be at:

PS3: 5.3 Million sold

Xbox 360: 13.6 million sold

Then MGS4 and FF XIII hit, assuming they sell 2 million units in one day, and that the xbox doesn't sell any units at all (still giving the PS3 points), the sales all of a sudden are at

PS3: 9.3 million

Xbox 360: 13.6 million

TADA, even with the ridiculous PS3 assumptions, the Xbox is significantly ahead of the Ps3.

This is too bad, since I really do want the Ps3 to win (like its kind of games, like its hardware, had good experiences with the ps1 and ps2), but the PS3 looks completely screwed.

EDIT: Just wanted to clarify that I'm not sying the PS3 hs zero hope, but that its future looks really, really bad. I believe there's no certain way to tell until spring of 2009.

osirisomeomi

so by that logic sony is only 4 million behind even though 360 came out a year earlier. right now they're 6.5 million behind... that means they made up alot of ground

All four games will move PS3s out of the shelves and into homes. How many? Will they help surpass the Xbox 360's number? Time will tell. And unfortunately for Sony, time is something they don't have. jsnepo

Tune in next week on the next episode of PSTRIPLE: Warrior Princess.

Good post, although I don't think anyone can talk about 2008 until after all the various trade shows (E3, TGS, X07 etc). Because for all we know MGS (Microsoft Game Studios in this case) has all their new trilogys on the fast track and we'll be seeing Mass Effect 2, Too Human 2 and GeoW 2 all in 2008 and GT5(which for some reason isn't hyped as the PS3's top game) and other games won't be out till 2009 or 2010.

Looking at the situation, it seems that the PS3 will come out on top. Here are some reasons...

1. Games will keep getting better as PS3 power is utilized further.

2. As HD becomes a standard in entertainment, Blu-Ray will take over.

3. PS3 will have everything PS2 had, but it will also improve on things that PS2 did not do as well. PS2 did not have many FPS far less any good ones. PS3 has already started to change that.

4. The variety of games on the PS3 will be far superior to that of the competition.

5. Online is free, like it or not, this actually matters to people. Online will also be borderline with Xbox Live at the very least.

6. As stated by most everyone, most are waiting for a price drop / more games. There will be a huge spike in sales.

Although all these things are likely, I must also stress that at this moment, I prefer my 360 over my PS3 because it is simply better at this point in time. But as always, PC comes first :D