The NPD is not really all that accurate

what people need to understand about the NPD (national purchase diary) is that it only considers 60% of the retailers who sell consoles and software to the buying public. there are many large retailers who dont report their sales to any company much less the NPD, they include

Wal-mart
K-Mart
Costco
Sams
and these are the ones i know about.

and in the abscence of that 40% of data, the NPD then has to make an estimate.....which means they are essentially,sophisticatedly guessing almost half of the retail data that they are reporting.

now im not trying to undermine the NPD and their knowledge on market trends....but i will say that their is far more wiggle room in their accuracy than people on these forums seem to think.

the reality is anyone who has an agenda to hate on another cosnole or company will find any numbers they want to justify tearing them apart. so this could very well be a moot point on my part.

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!"  just seems so silly

i believe the translation is MOO!

but the ps3 simply isnt selling up to par 

do you really think that the walmart, kmart, costco and sams club crowd is the ps3 crowd? ;)Ontain

You're right, with this newly acquired info, I have reason to believe the GBA sold 100K units last month...

[QUOTE="Ontain"]do you really think that the walmart, kmart, costco and sams club crowd is the ps3 crowd? ;)bretthorror

You're right, with this newly acquired info, I have reason to believe the GBA sold 100K units last month...

The NPD is terrible at tracking PC sales, most people know that. They seem to be much more on the ball with console sales. Walmart is the only factor neglected that would have a significant sales report. Either way, the 360 and Wii, by the same sales formula, is still out pacing the PS3 by a pretty big margin. This fall should give people a better look into how the race is stacking up, as it's way to early in the game to say anything definitively.

20 Million units sold will be a very large benchmark, and I suspect the Wii will hit it first, well before anyone else. Heck, I still can't get one in my area. 

what people need to understand about the NPD (national purchase diary) is that it only considers 60% of the retailers who sell consoles and software to the buying public. there are many large retailers who dont report their sales to any company much less the NPD, they include

Wal-mart
K-Mart
Costco
Sams
and these are the ones i know about.

and in the abscence of that 40% of data, the NPD then has to make an estimate.....which means they are essentially,sophisticatedly guessing almost half of the retail data that they are reporting.

now im not trying to undermine the NPD and their knowledge on market trends....but i will say that their is far more wiggle room in their accuracy than people on these forums seem to think.

the reality is anyone who has an agenda to hate on another cosnole or company will find any numbers they want to justify tearing them apart. so this could very well be a moot point on my part.

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!"  just seems so silly

flood

Would you say the same thing if Microsoft and Sony switched positions on the NPD report?

[QUOTE="flood"]

what people need to understand about the NPD (national purchase diary) is that it only considers 60% of the retailers who sell consoles and software to the buying public. there are many large retailers who dont report their sales to any company much less the NPD, they include

Wal-mart
K-Mart
Costco
Sams
and these are the ones i know about.

and in the abscence of that 40% of data, the NPD then has to make an estimate.....which means they are essentially,sophisticatedly guessing almost half of the retail data that they are reporting.

now im not trying to undermine the NPD and their knowledge on market trends....but i will say that their is far more wiggle room in their accuracy than people on these forums seem to think.

the reality is anyone who has an agenda to hate on another cosnole or company will find any numbers they want to justify tearing them apart. so this could very well be a moot point on my part.

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!" just seems so silly

LEGEND_C4A

Would you say the same thing if Microsoft and Sony switched positions on the NPD report?

You mean the xbox360 outselling the Ps2? (Or even the PSP ;) ) 

It's common knowledge the PS3 is selling better than the Wii. NPD (Nintendo Product Disinformation) group has lied to us all.Idonomeus

 their is far more wiggle room in their accuracy than people on these forums seem to think.

flood

Do you realize that a sample size of 60% in which the population is extremely large, the margin of error is very small? Given this information, what is this "wiggle room" that you speak of based on? 

[QUOTE="Idonomeus"]It's common knowledge the PS3 is selling better than the Wii. NPD (Nintendo Product Disinformation) group has lied to us all.Jandurin

1) Well all already know that they don't count Walmart and other places.

2) Their system works similar to polling.  Do they call every person in a country and ask them directly?  No.  Do they survey enough data to make a reasonable estimate based on demand vs store availability vs. shipping numbers?  Yes.

The NPD, while not exact, is usually very precisely accurate to actual sales numbers.  It's not exact, but it is scientifically sound.  I've never heard them being way off official released numbers from the companies themselves.

Last gen cows loved it when the NPD numbers came out.

Oh how times have changed!!:lol:

Ah, people knowing nothing of statistics.

Considering the amount of hard data available to NPD at a 99% confidence level (higher than the common 95%), we'd have a confidence interval of only 0.37 around the data mentioned... that's nothing.

NPD is accurate. It's very much so. Stop trying to defend the PS3's poor peformance. You don't see lems wailing about 174k units.

You don't see lems wailing about 174k units.Grive

what people need to understand about the NPD (national purchase diary) is that it only considers 60% of the retailers who sell consoles and software to the buying public. there are many large retailers who dont report their sales to any company much less the NPD, they include

Wal-mart
K-Mart
Costco
Sams
and these are the ones i know about.

and in the abscence of that 40% of data, the NPD then has to make an estimate.....which means they are essentially,sophisticatedly guessing almost half of the retail data that they are reporting.

now im not trying to undermine the NPD and their knowledge on market trends....but i will say that their is far more wiggle room in their accuracy than people on these forums seem to think.

the reality is anyone who has an agenda to hate on another cosnole or company will find any numbers they want to justify tearing them apart. so this could very well be a moot point on my part.

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!"  just seems so silly

flood

Of course, that does mean they could have over-estimated sales as well.  Inaccuracy doesn't just go in one direction.

So....  you are correct but the idea is inconsequential.

You need to understand that this is was an analyst firm does which is essentially what NPD is, they make estimates but the thing you all so need to learn, is that if the data at a set number of stores says the 360 is selling alot, then more then likely its the same at the stores not covered by said data, Its not like people that go to bestbuy prefer 360 over the people at wal-mart or some thing.

There can never be such a thing as 100% accurate analyst numbers because even the companies them selves dont have access to 100% perfectly accurate numbers, BEcause there is no such thing as 100% perfect accuracy there is all ways an abberation in the process.

So till we get a better system where said analyst firm has access to the accounts and holdings of all companies every where, then the best predictions and numbers we can get are currently from npd.

well th gist of my argument is we dont know.....

and in this void of "knowing" or " not knowing"

there are two things you can do.

you can just enjoy your system of choice and let the chips fall where they may.

or you can try and find data from whatever source, and then use the data to try and make others sorry for their purchase, sorry that it wasnt the same purchase you made...and then gloat and just generally try and devalue their experience to enhance your own.

the reality is all the NPD data threads dissapear the second and third year into the system wars.

the sega dreamcast was an anomally. systems very rarely fail once theyve reached the level nintendo,sony,and microsoft have.
to actually sit back and say that the NPD proves sony is in trouble, or that the PS3 may not last through 2008....would only elicit laughter from people who are actually paid to cycle through the data.

michael pachter still till this day claims based on his estimates and knowledge, that the PS3 will eventually gain the lead. the difference is hes not sitting on the forums....hes an actual professional with respected credentials who gets payed top dollar to be right. he doesnt do it to "ownzor" anyone. and he has in the past had issue w/ the way the NPD's numbers are calulated.

i guess im just saying to stop posting threads about sonys doom based on the NPD report, or this analyst....and lets talk about the games.

i believe the translation is MOO!

but the ps3 simply isnt selling up to par

Awinagainov

lol pretty much. damage control to the max 

[QUOTE="Grive"]You don't see lems wailing about 174k units.mjarantilla

The only thing is, those aren't low sales at all for April. Especially for a console that costs 400 bucks. 

michael pachter still till this day claims based on his estimates and knowledge, that the PS3 will eventually gain the lead. the difference is hes not sitting on the forums....hes an actual professional with respected credentials who gets payed top dollar to be right.

 

flood

There has been empirical research conducted ad nauseum about the herd mentality of analysts. Going against the consensus opinion results in closer scrutiny and if that dissenting analyst is wrong, there is typically a loss of credibility. Consequently,it is difficult to say what actual analytical opinion is. 

[QUOTE="mjarantilla"][QUOTE="Grive"]You don't see lems wailing about 174k units.Trading_Zoner

The only thing is, those aren't low sales at all for April. Especially for a console that costs 400 bucks.

[QUOTE="flood"]

michael pachter still till this day claims based on his estimates and knowledge, that the PS3 will eventually gain the lead. the difference is hes not sitting on the forums....hes an actual professional with respected credentials who gets payed top dollar to be right.

 

Kestastrophe

There has been empirical research conducted ad nauseum about the herd mentality of analysts. Going against the consensus opinion results in closer scrutiny and if that dissenting analyst is wrong, there is typically a loss of credibility. Consequently,it is difficult to say what actual analytical opinion is.

For what it's worth, the posters at NeoGAF usually beat Pachter's NPD predictions.  This month everyone who made a prediction was more accurate than Pachter.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=155665  

[QUOTE="Kestastrophe"][QUOTE="flood"]

michael pachter still till this day claims based on his estimates and knowledge, that the PS3 will eventually gain the lead. the difference is hes not sitting on the forums....hes an actual professional with respected credentials who gets payed top dollar to be right.

 

Iyethar

There has been empirical research conducted ad nauseum about the herd mentality of analysts. Going against the consensus opinion results in closer scrutiny and if that dissenting analyst is wrong, there is typically a loss of credibility. Consequently,it is difficult to say what actual analytical opinion is.

For what it's worth, the posters at NeoGAF usually beat Pachter's NPD predictions. This month everyone who made a prediction was more accurate than Pachter.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=155665

Thanks for the link. I find that very interesting.  

 What you fail to understand is that Wal-Mart and Sams Club are both vendor managed companies..... i.e. Nintendo, Sony etc manages the inventory in the store and does all reporting. Walmart and Sams club do no direct reporting. I play a significant role in a major portion of USDA reporting. They dont report numbers for our market either, however those numbers are reported by me. A vendor can easily view walmarts current on hand inventory for their items... check sellthru rates etc. There are enough calculations that estimate non participating vendors sales to determine these numbers.. If you they are able to establish a ship vs sold % and apply it to the total units shipped by sony... its pretty easy to get close. I mean face it Walmart isnt going to have a 80% ship vs sold compared to a 20% at gamespot.... they are pilled up in walmart!

what people need to understand about the NPD (national purchase diary) is that it only considers 60% of the retailers who sell consoles and software to the buying public. there are many large retailers who dont report their sales to any company much less the NPD, they include

Wal-mart
K-Mart
Costco
Sams
and these are the ones i know about.

and in the abscence of that 40% of data, the NPD then has to make an estimate.....which means they are essentially,sophisticatedly guessing almost half of the retail data that they are reporting.

now im not trying to undermine the NPD and their knowledge on market trends....but i will say that their is far more wiggle room in their accuracy than people on these forums seem to think.

the reality is anyone who has an agenda to hate on another cosnole or company will find any numbers they want to justify tearing them apart. so this could very well be a moot point on my part.

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!"  just seems so silly

flood

i believe the translation is MOO!

but the ps3 simply isnt selling up to par 

Awinagainov

I thought I heard some barnyard noises. I guess the NPD figures don't count PS3s shipped to farms across the country...

p.s. Im a leafs fan, make your sabres destroy the senators. at least get them to end alfreddsons career ;)

amage-day ontrol-cay.

You're right.  The PS3 is really just a massive success.  In fact, NPD is SO off, that it failed to show that the GC was the real winner last gen.

[QUOTE="flood"]

michael pachter still till this day claims based on his estimates and knowledge, that the PS3 will eventually gain the lead. the difference is hes not sitting on the forums....hes an actual professional with respected credentials who gets payed top dollar to be right.

 

Kestastrophe

There has been empirical research conducted ad nauseum about the herd mentality of analysts. Going against the consensus opinion results in closer scrutiny and if that dissenting analyst is wrong, there is typically a loss of credibility. Consequently,it is difficult to say what actual analytical opinion is. 

[QUOTE="Kestastrophe"][QUOTE="flood"]

michael pachter still till this day claims based on his estimates and knowledge, that the PS3 will eventually gain the lead. the difference is hes not sitting on the forums....hes an actual professional with respected credentials who gets payed top dollar to be right.

 

JDW_games

There has been empirical research conducted ad nauseum about the herd mentality of analysts. Going against the consensus opinion results in closer scrutiny and if that dissenting analyst is wrong, there is typically a loss of credibility. Consequently,it is difficult to say what actual analytical opinion is.

You've never heard of Mr_Sams, the self-proclaimed bad boy of gamespot? I'll try to find a link to that legendary thread. HAHAHA 

[QUOTE="Grive"]You don't see lems wailing about 174k units.mjarantilla

That leaves the PS3 in even worse shape, you know?