The PS3 could Close the Gap on the Wii in 08?

Ok, just some background info.

In 2007, for much of the year, the Wii outsold the 360 and PS3 combined, selling nearly 18million units on the year.

The 360 sold about 8.5 million units worldwide, to retail, and the PS3 sold about the same number of units to retail worldwide(an overlooked fact).

http://www.vgchartz.com/

My point:

For Sony to "close the gap" on the Wii, it would have to outpace it in sales month to month, worldwide. This is a virtual impossibility, due to the huge swing in hardware sales this would require.

Add in the fact that in the first 6 months of the year, the Wii will certainly sell more units worldwide than will the PS3, due to vast demand, Fit, and Brawl.

Basically, the closest thing the PS3 vs Wii can hope for this year is to "close the gap" on the gap.

If, by the end of 2008, the PS3 can be selling a compariable amount of units per month worldwide as the Wii,(aka: not being doubled, or tripled worldwide by the system, but instead only losing by a factor of 1:1.x) then it will have been a successful year for the PS3.

Just don't expect those worldwide numbers to get any closer together till 2009, because the Wii will almost certainly outsell the PS3 for at least the first 6 months of the year by a rather large margin, and almost certainly outsell the PS3 for the entire year.

If the margin that the Wii outsells the PS3 is less than 10 million, the PS3 will have closed the gap on the gap, by that margin, and despite still being further behind numberically on the market, it will have reduced the Wii's marketshare, and proven that it could, given a sharp decline in Wii hardware sales, have competitive market share with the Wii by 2011.

I'm sorry, no the PS3 will not even get close to closing the Wii's grand canyon.

The Wii no....maybe it will close the margin between the 360 though.

mgs4>_>ljlrj

will not make the PS3 outsell the wii by 10 million next year.

The Wii no....maybe it will close the margin between the 360 though.

APOLLOCJD

Considering the 360 has been tied worldwide by the PS3 this year, and next year, the PS3 has a few great exclusive games(it will outsell the Wii in Japan for about 3 months of the year, I predict) and the 360 doesn't have Halo 3(though GTA will be its saving grace this year), I would be the PS3 sees more worldwide sales than the 360 in 08, but I guess as to how much. I would say put them both at 10 million in 08, and say plus or minus 20 percent of that for each one, and you'll have your 08 end result with a 20 percent margin for error.

mgs4>_>ljlrj

Optimistically, lets say MGS4 sells 4 million copies, and Final Fantasy XIII is release in 08 and sells 4 million.

Now lets assume that every single person who buys a copy of these games also buys a PS3 with it, who ordinarily wouldn't have bought a PS3 next year.

Finally, lets assume that besides those people, 8 million people(last years sales) also bought a PS3 without the incentive of MGS or Final Fantasy.

Assuming the Wii's sales don't increase in its second year(very unlikely), the Wii would still outsell the PS3 by about 2 million units, and the PS3 would still only be closing the gap, on the gap.

The PS3 would have to sell almost 2.5 times better next year than it did this year, a 150% increase in sales on the year, to even begin lessening the Wii's lead on the hardware market, which stands at about 10 million units.

Considering that very optimistic projects for most second year consoles are about 15 percent, and no console have ever nearly reached a 100 percent increase or decreated in its second year, even the Dreamcast, I think imagining the PS3 having a 150 percent increase is right up there with believing in the Easter Bunny.

[QUOTE="ljlrj"]mgs4>_>laughingman42

will not make the PS3 outsell the wii by 10 million next year.

[QUOTE="laughingman42"]

[QUOTE="ljlrj"]mgs4>_>ljlrj

will not make the PS3 outsell the wii by 10 million next year.

Ironically, the 360 sold less units in 07, than it did in 06.

This is due to competition be presented to the market.

Halo 3 saved the 360 from being marginalized by the RRoD fiasco.

Well thats kinda doubtful. You still have to understand unlike the PS3, the 360 was in such a short supply until late July of 06. Sales picked up again in 07 with the numerous releases, including Halo 3. And for once PS3 fanboys, don't complainan about an overrated game cause I could go on all day about Final Fantasy & MGS 4.

And you also have to remember that cause of the RRoD a lot of potential buyers are holding out until they new boards, x-clamps, and such are on board before they jump on the 360 boat. Ps3 will indeed match sales. But a lot of people are buying it mainly for cheap Blu-Ray players, and the actual software sales & attachment rates are proof of that.

But I think the PS3 will close a gap between the PS3 & 360, but I say wait till August. Once everyone and there mom has a Wii finally then people start seeing what console is closing what gap here.

[QUOTE="ljlrj"][QUOTE="laughingman42"]

[QUOTE="ljlrj"]mgs4>_>Zenfoldor

will not make the PS3 outsell the wii by 10 million next year.

Ironically, the 360 sold less units in 07, than it did in 06.

This is due to competition be presented to the market.

Halo 3 saved the 360 from being marginalized by the RRoD fiasco.

you're right, and this year it'll certainly sell in less units, by 2009 i bet the ps3 would have outsold the 360 even dough the 360 was launched a year earlier.

I find it funny how you said the PS3 and 360 are close in sales......come on man, atleast use real facts to make your argument dont just make stuff up.....

The PS3 will get close to the 360 eventually, but will not surpass it. The gap is just to big now and the consumers have made it clear that they prefer the Xbox 360.

Right now Nintendo is making 1.8 million Wiis a month and selling out. Well at the same time trying to find a way to make even more systems each month.

How is the PS3 comparing to that again?

[QUOTE="APOLLOCJD"]

The Wii no....maybe it will close the margin between the 360 though.

Zenfoldor

Considering the 360 has been tied worldwide by the PS3 this year, and next year, the PS3 has a few great exclusive games(it will outsell the Wii in Japan for about 3 months of the year, I predict) and the 360 doesn't have Halo 3(though GTA will be its saving grace this year), I would be the PS3 sees more worldwide sales than the 360 in 08, but I guess as to how much. I would say put them both at 10 million in 08, and say plus or minus 20 percent of that for each one, and you'll have your 08 end result with a 20 percent margin for error.

Um I am curious to where are you pulling your figures from? The 360 outsold the PS3 and the Wii combined in software sold this year and you are trying to tell me they are on par? Not to mention MGS4 aside the line up for the 360 and PS3 are rather similar with many more multi-platform games comming in 08.

LOL, uh no

the Wii will continue to dominate, i don't think thats in doubt, non-game player are buying it, it is the "it" item right now, even with only a few really good games

PS3 will be lucky to keep pace with the 360 this year, its still to expensive, alot of people, myself included refuse to pay $400 for a toy, when, game wise, I can get the same qaulityof gamefrom a$280 360 arcade

I think so. I'm not just saying coz I own a PS3, but just look at the stats. The Wii gets consistently poor game reviews for the same games (look at Tony Hawk: PG, Fifa, PES, NFS etc.) unless it's a mario game. I'm sorry but the Wii, although original lacks sheer power and quality like the PS3 or 360.Total-KO

ps3 sales will go trough the roof this year, especially because mgs4 is comming up.The wii sells in large number cuz it's cheap, really cheap compared to it's competition, and about the ps3 outselling the 360, well that's obviously gonna happen.Al3x_n90

I really don't think MGS4 is a system seller.

$500 if u want backwards compatibility. And to top it off, you need to have a new$2,000 TV and all kinds of extra cables for the system to actually look good.

With the state the economy is in, PS3 might as well getting used to staring at the back of the Wii's head.

Ok, just some background info.

In 2007, for much of the year, the Wii outsold the 360 and PS3 combined, selling nearly 18million units on the year.

The 360 sold about 8.5 million units worldwide, to retail, and the PS3 sold about the same number of units to retail worldwide(an overlooked fact).

http://www.vgchartz.com/

My point:

For Sony to "close the gap" on the Wii, it would have to outpace it in sales month to month, worldwide. This is a virtual impossibility, due to the huge swing in hardware sales this would require.

Add in the fact that in the first 6 months of the year, the Wii will certainly sell more units worldwide than will the PS3, due to vast demand, Fit, and Brawl.

Basically, the closest thing the PS3 vs Wii can hope for this year is to "close the gap" on the gap.

If, by the end of 2008, the PS3 can be selling a compariable amount of units per month worldwide as the Wii,(aka: not being doubled, or tripled worldwide by the system, but instead only losing by a factor of 1:1.x) then it will have been a successful year for the PS3.

Just don't expect those worldwide numbers to get any closer together till 2009, because the Wii will almost certainly outsell the PS3 for at least the first 6 months of the year by a rather large margin, and almost certainly outsell the PS3 for the entire year.

If the margin that the Wii outsells the PS3 is less than 10 million, the PS3 will have closed the gap on the gap, by that margin, and despite still being further behind numberically on the market, it will have reduced the Wii's marketshare, and proven that it could, given a sharp decline in Wii hardware sales, have competitive market share with the Wii by 2011.

Zenfoldor

Who the hell told you the PS3 sold 8.9 million? It sold about 6 million world wide and shipped about 7.9 million, while the 360 shipped about 17.7 million worldwide and i don't know how much it sold( i think about 15-16 mill). Also the PS3 could never close the MONSTROUS gap against the wii, it just has a huge lead in the market. I doubt if it could outsell the 360(though it would come very very close.....).

The Wii no....maybe it will close the margin between the 360 though.

APOLLOCJD

i agree, especially when you figure the European and Japan sales.