Ok, still in shock from NPD April numbers....As a major Sheeming (mostly sheep), I should be happy....and yet, I'm still STUMPPEd at the result. GTA Month....and the two HD console went DOWN instead of UP?!?!?!? WTFBBQSAUCE was my reaction...Well, after chewing on the numbers for a few days, all I gotta say are these conclusions from the month that, "decided everything!"
1. It's over! This gen is pretty much decided! Anyone who still think the PS3 or X360 has a chance is a blind fanboy!
So much for the fact, "this gen, all three will be on even ground"! Remember that back in 2006. Everyone thought basically that Sony will loose marketshare but all three will be tooth and nail within eachother with the PS3 eeking out a narrow win. but however, there will not be one console dominate the other like the PS2 did to the Xbox and GC.
Well warp back to 2008! After April. I'm not so sure anymore. If a game with super casual appeal like GTA can't move the X360 and PS3 a muscle and can't even put a dent in the Wii, all I gotta say the one console stomping the other two into the ground condition will last another gen at the least! By 2012, this is what I'm predicting!
U.S. Numbers at the end of 2012:
Wii: 50 million (at this rate, nothing gonna stop this juggernaut! Steamroller anyone?)
X360: 20 million
PS3: 15 million
Worldwide:
Wii: 130 million
PS3: 35 million
X360: 30 million (sorry, without Japan, X360 will not win world wide)
2. HD Gaming all that? Tell that to the general public!
Seriously! At this rate and the numbers on NPD, I think the only guys care about HD gaming for right now are the die hard lemmings and cows who are still screaming "TeH 1080P, TeH 720P" at the top of their lungs and ignoring anything else. but the thing is, does the general public care? Let me hear it general public?!?!?
**General Public Reaction** A big fat YAAAWWWNNN!!!
Truly, this is pathetic! If the general public really cared, they would've gone out and bought either the PS3 and X360 for GTA IV, a game with probably the most casual appeal and guess what? So much for that! Ever since the onslaught of the Wii, it just seems the general public has thrown HD and everything about it to the wayside! Even those that got into it with a HD TV knows so little about anything HD that it just want you to go, "FACE, meet palm! SLAP!" My parents for ex. "AHH OOHH WOOO!!! Watching tv on the new plasma is soo cool! Look at all the HD colors!" Me check out the channel, "Mom, dad, you do know you are watching regular channels on your new $10K plasma right?" Parents, "that can't be, look at the more vibrant colors and resolution. Something wrong with you!" Me, "Sigh, face meet palm!" SLAP!! Switch tv to the High Def channels! "Ok, try it now!" Parents reaction, "WTFBBQSAUCEFFFTHINGOFMAJIGGYYYY!!! What is going on?!?!?!?!?!?!" All this tells me this, "HD gaming may have started TOO EARLY!!!
3. This market is dominated by casuals!
Now, not saying that hardcore will be "TeH EnDzzz!" far from it! The hardcore is still a viable market and will always remain a viable market. Anyone who say it's going to die is delusional or just blind! But conversly, anyone who deny the power of the casuals is also delusional or just blind! Remember how we laughed at Nintendo when they tried to capture the casual market, "BWAHAHAHAHAHA!! TeH WiI iS TeH Kidd-Da! It Will-GA DeAd-GAdA!!! WiI TeH SuXSORrrZZZ! Ps# X#6) teH RoXSoRRZZZ!!!". Well, whose laughing now? Casuals have not only pushed the Wii hardware up the wazoo, but also it's software sales. Wii now have something like 26 million sellers with 13 of them third-party. Whose laughing now again? No wonder MS is ripping of Nintendo with their own Wiimote and trying to woo casuals with Viva and Banjo and Sony is desparately getting LBP out of the door! "OHH NoEs!!! The PS# X360 suxsoorrrzzz too right?" Well, guess what, if you want to break out of the 30-40 million units sold in your lifetime thing (as Sony and MS will do this gen), you gotta appeal to the casuals. Sticking you neck only in the hardcore market works...but it will limit what you going to do! Again if the so called, "teH HarDa-CordA" here say they are the most important, then why are both MS and Sony trying to woo the casuals?
4. The HD Market is Saturated
No Shaznit!!! Anybody looking at the April NPD number can tell this! Yea sure, GTA have been on the market for only 5 days (NPD calculation period for April extends three days into MAy), but it still gives us a good picture how well it will perform. Well, all it shows that the HD market right now is saturated in the U.S. and not even a game with super casual appeal like GTA can rescue it. It seems as even the casuals has dumped a game like GTA for something that's cheaper and more affordable...A game that last gen was what they cared the most about....which leads me to my next point...
5. HD Consoles in Serious Need of a Price Drop!
Yep, this is only thing that would breath life into the two HD consoles right now. Even at $300-$400, it's still too expensive to even garner a second look from the general public. Those who cared about HD gaming and cared abut X360 and PS3 have alrady bought them at the current price point. The rest? YAWN! Me want Wii or PS2!!!! Me could care less about what othe two!!! Well, the reason why is this. GTA IV again, has massive casual appeal, but in order for casual to play the game this time around, they will need to buy a X360 and PS3 for the game right? Well, guess what, the total price just came to about $400-$500 just to play one game! If you don't have a HD TV, good luck, another $1000 please! No WONDER many casual are staying away! The price of the two consoles need to come DOWN NOW!!! But the question right now is this, Can Sony and MS afford another price cut? Maybe that's another topic for another time....This leads to point number six...
**Ok, before I go one, let me put on my flame retardant suit and my flame shield caues I can already hear the stamped of angry cows**
**Put on Flame suite and Flame Shield**
6. I don't think MGS 4 will amount to anything....
Now will it sell good and push a few units? Sure. but will it have the effect that Cows hope it will? Keep on dreaming cows!
Now, the thing is, MGS 4 will probably be the first AAAE that the cows crave, it will be a console mover and it will be HUGE for the PS3! But throw that by the way side for the moment. GTA IV is far BIGGER than MGS will ever be and with a lot more casual appeal too! And in five days, it DID sold good, but moving consoles? Well, April NPD just showed PS3 and X360 numbers WENT DOWN instead off up on the release of one of their biggest, if not the biggest game release ever! So the lynch pin is, unless the PS3 drops in price to the casual sweet spot range, how do you think MGS 4, a game will less casual appeal do? If Sony doesn't drop price, the X360 will just go, "YAWN! Boring!" and the Wii....Wii reaction will be, **Put on Stomping Shoes**. **Put them on**. "Stomp, Stomp, STOMP!!!" "Yeah, just another day at the office curb stomping the competition to the ground!
My prediction right now for MGS4, For the month, 1 million in sales, move around 250K of PS3 at the max. that's it!...Which leads to point number 7...
7. Consumer Mindshare has Already been Made Up
Again, Fully expecting Cows and Lemming to go, "Bu...bu...BuT This gen just started. We still got plenty of time left! Well, BUT WHAT?!?!?!? Ever since 2006, all I've ever heard was, Nintendo will go third party soon. wii is a Fad, It will end at launch, then it will end next March, it will end in Summers, in will end by Christmas.....Now the thumping have become so common that despite what the die hard hard cores would still believe, the general consumers have decided. Wii wins for now. Unless something drastic happens, that's the way it goes. After getting years of being bombarded by how great the Wii is (you seen all the Wii Fit stuff on GMA and the Today Show yet?) , it's slowly starting to seep into the general consumer minds that, "Wii is the cool, HD stuff.....What is that?" And again, the price of the HD consoles doesn't help a bit. I have several co workers who are dying to play GTA IV but will not spend 400-500 dollars for one game. And the lynch-pin is, the longer MS and Sony wait, the longer the consumer mindshare of, "Wii the Roxsorzzz!!! HD....WTF is that?" will settle and take root even more, making the PS3 and X360 even harder to take root in the mind of casuals. Once that is truly settled.....Well, 130 million units sold in 2012 for the Wii anyone?
**Again, put on the flame shield and suit. Can hear cows and lemmings coming in, foaming at the mouth**
8. Next-Gen Effect. Cheaper, less technical consoles with some form of motion controls
No doubt about it. The stomping that Sony and MS are recieveing will no doubt change what they percieve as what work and what's not. One thing that will certainly go next round is the famous "Razor and Razor blade model". It's gone, kaput! Companies just got a face of cream pie from the Wii that they can't keep up with the "Let's make a console that's $500-$800, sell it at a huge loss and try to make it back on the software!" Nope! That model is gone! Sony and MS just got ran over by an M-1 Tank named Nintendo. They put all their efforts into making this technological masterpiece with the graphics, the physics, the HD the EVERYTHING. The fanbase, "OHH AHHH YEEEE OHH@@!! Foams at the mouth, me want, me want!" But the general consumer reaction, **Look at them a bit**. **Flips the bird and walks away!** "Who cares! Me want Wii. HD what is that? Ho Destroy? Xbox 360? Why does an Xbox running around in circles for? PS3? who did PostScript 3 times in an EMail? That's dumb! Ohh wait, there once was this great video machine named PS2....NAH! Can't be, the 'Real' PS3 can't suck this bad!" And there you go! MS and Sony look at Nintendo laughing all the way to the bank while they are holding their expensive achievements and going, "WHY THE HECK are we doing this?" Next round, max, all consoles will only be about 8x more powerful. Each will have some form of motion control (if rumor true, MS already are starting) . Any console that go beyond the $300 price point are just asking for it! Sorry "teH Harda-Corda" That's just the way it goes right now!
Anyway, read it or not! This is my conclusion after the shocker that was April NPD!
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