If you read the gaming blogs during the PS3 launch, Sony was dead on arrival. It certainly wasn't the smoothest of launches, with console shortages, already lofty pricetags inflated due to eBay auctions, no online strategy to rival Xbox Live, and a dearth of compelling games for the nascent machine.
  But did the PS3 really limp out of the gate that badly? Putting it's initial sales up against it's direct competitor, the Xbox 360, the numbers tell a different tale. According to NPD Group data, the PS3 sold approximately 902,000 consoles during it's first 3 months in the United States. The Xbox 360 sold 50,000 fewer consoles during it's first 3 months on the market in the United States, coming in at roughly 854,000. Comparing the PS3 with it's highly successful prodecessors, it outsold both the PSone and PS2 during the same time frame. So why the doom and gloom surrounding Sony? Â
"The media are plain stupid," says Michael Pachter, analyst with Wedbush Morgan Securities. "People are being overly critical on how well it's doing mostly because their expectation for what the sales should have been were too high." Â
Billy Pidgeon, an analyst with IDC, agrees that Sony received an overabundance of criticism. "Initially, there was a scarcity of consoles and people were overpaying on eBay. But all of a sudden those auctions dried up and there was a surplus on consoles on retail shelves - this led to a negative perception of the PS3. The press developed a script, which often happens. Nintendo was the victim last time of being out of touch with the Gamecube, even though the system was pretty capable and Nintendo was dominating the handheld market. This time it's Sony who is out of touch. It's easy to write the script that they are out of touch, they don't understand the market, and that they are arrogant. I don't think that's fair, but it's an easy story to write." Â
One of the other problems facing Sony was the overwhelming success of it's current heavyweight, the PS2. "The fact of the matter is that the PS2 is still entrenched," says Pidgeon. "That is Sony's biggest problem for the PS3. What is the incentive to buy a PS3 when you can still get great titles like God of War II for the PS2?" Â
Despite the public perception of Sony's folly, the console is selling well without a true blockbuster title, and the marquee games will come in time. Pachter sees the console's future as being bright. "A year from now we'll be laughing because the PS3 will have a price cut, Blu-ray will be the standard high-definition movie format, and there will be a lot of software for the box."
 When forcasting the future of the console, both analysts see the PS3 trailing in the short term, but breaking even and eventually overcoming the Xbox 360 and Wii. "It will be a slow build," says Pidgeon. "I expect the Wii and Xbox 360 to stay in the lead in North America for the next two years. Where that flips is in 2010, 2011, where the PS3 has a huge install base and surpasses [Nintendo and Microsoft] while they are prepping their next box." Â
"I think it ends up in first," says Pachter. "But all three consoles will all have 30 percent or greater market share, and all of them will win."
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