What will Nintendo Switch's final lifetime sales be at?

Seriously lol, well we now know you're running out of material for Switch threads that's for sure, thankfully.

10-20 mil

50-60mil this is all if Nintendo can keep the momentum going. :P

I give 'em 50mil. We'll see how the next batch does.

It'd be lucky to even get 30 million. Though I'll eat grinded crow in ramen if it does.

based on nothing but my absolute lack of market trend knowledge and complete inability to forecast anything in any industry i'd say their window for life time sales is as narrow as the gap between gamecube total sales and wii total sales.

pretty refined, i know. like a wedge of cheese actually.

I'd say around 20 mil because there's so much hype and marketing and it has exclusives for it.

Far too early to speculate. The system obviously had a rushed launch, and we've yet to see if Nintendo can keep the momentum going. If they once again fall into their trend of droughts (remains to be seen, but not looking good so far), slow drip-feed their VC offerings (I think this is an assured bet, as it's a strategy they apparently see as viable), and being just as conservative in expenditures and making the same games over and over, I think they're going to suffer.

They really need to expand and do better than they are if they wish to climb into the mid to high double digits, much less triple, and from what I'm seeing this is the exact same Nintendo from the U days, only difference being they have a cool new piece of tech. Time will tell if it'll be enough, but I'm skeptical.

I dunno, but having a full fledged mario game that plays like mario 64 completely mobile will be damn great. 50 mil.

imo 50 million, but I'll go conservative and say it's more like 40-50 rather than 50-60

5 mil

No way that's that console will reach 50m! Just because it has Zelda doesn't mean it will sell 50. It will probably finish the generation with 12-15 million at best. It has strong sales currently but that will slow down in upcoming weeks.

WiiU 2.0 so I expect nothing more than 15 milliion.

20-30 million

My prediction when they revealed it would be much better than Wii-U, but worse than 3DS. The more we found about about specs, and I figured farther away from 3DS.

That's a large range of course, between 15 million and 60 million. I don't think it will keep much momentum at $299 IMO. I think it will fizzle out around 20-30 million in it's current state, especially once it starts missing out on all the major multiplat games. But price cuts and a more aggressive strategy (like 3DS) and it could stay in the ballpark of 3DS sales of 60+ Million. But to get there they'd need to eventually do stuff like make a cheaper non-tablet version, slash prices to $149-199, etc.

A lot of ownage will happen after 3 years will occur! People think hardware matters when games matter more. People think that 3rd parties won't support the platform, but forget that they will go on which console or handheld is selling.

I think your memory of the Wii is failing you.

It's not like 50 million is an extremely high benchmark. It's also clearly a better idea for a system than the wiiu, so would at least do better than that. The Switch is already selling at a higher pace than Nintendo thought, and they are even doubling their production rate from 8 million for the year to 16. It is looking likely that it will outsell the wiiu in the first year alone.

Btw, Zelda isn't even the biggest software to come to the system this year. The heavy hitter will be Mariokart Deluxe. Yes, it is just an enhanced port, but the Switch was made to play that one game. The local multiplayer features are just too perfect for it. The port nature of it will diminish sales somewhat, but the series is just so much more broad in appeal than Zelda is that it will still outperform it by a huge margin.

Pokemon is also a much bigger deal, and that's coming this year. Arguably Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey as well. The long term outlook is looking very good.

Seriously? It's only been barely two weeks.

I think it will do better than the Wii U. Exactly how much better is up in the air.

No idea, to be honest. We are experiencing launch hype with not many games on the horizon. Who knows.

Nintendo usually has a great start the problem is they can't maintain it. With dated hardware and minimal 3rd party support plus a poor feature set...I can't see the switch having any legs. The hardware prices are also too high IMO.

Nintendo makes great games but that is all I can give them. There is more to having a successful platform than exclusives.

I'm thinking about 90 mil. They're in a great position atm.

It's not going to have a normal sales trajectory because of the 3DS and none of the arguments posed so far make much sense.

The Switch will be a massive success for Nintendo. As a graphics-whoring hermit, I haven't had much positive to say about Nintendo for over 15 years. Conceptually, the console is extremely well designed. The execution could've been a bit better when it came to the hardware, but ultimately I think hardware has been the less important aspect for Nintendo. I'm convinced the Switch will have long-term sustainability and will serve as a home for some of the greatest games to come out this gen (which is already self-evident).

No fucking clue lol. Voted 30-40 just to be optimistic, but this thing could could catch fire, all out tank, or anything in-between.

At the very least I'd bet on it outperforming the WiiU though, so there's that.

20-30 million

and thats being generous. Pretty much all consoles have a solid start but end up falling off in the consequent months if they dont keep the momentum *cough* X1 *cough* Once the Zelda BOTW hype and momentum dies off I see the switch struggling if it doesnt get anothey highly rated exclusive anytime soon. The new Mario Odyssey is the only game I can see getting more rave reviews (unless there is a surprising new IP) but when is it coming out?

I don't know. As a home console, it's clearly lacking, and as a handheld, it's too expensive. I like the Switch and plan on buying one eventually, but I think it would be wrong to not note its current momentum is probably as much because of Zelda as it is about the Switch itself. And has been noted, people are generally quite eager to pickup new systems due to the general excitement about owning something new and different.

Can the Switch sustain itself? Even with good software in the future, will people honestly be as interested in it in 3 years? Hopefully it has aggressive price cuts which eventually bring the costs more in line with traditional handheld costs.

Either way, only having to buy one platform to enjoy Nintendo software is progress in my book. I'd say 3DS lifetime sales is its highest potential, because I don't view it as a "disruptive" system like the Wii. Don't think it will get there, though.

After reading this thread, I've decided to bookmark it so that I can bump it in a few years since I think that a lot of the people here that are predicting low sales are going to be eating crow.

As long as Nintendo can eventually drop the price down to $199, I expect it to sell between 50 and 60 million.

Nintendo has a lot of momentum on their side right now. They have stepped up and done a great job marketing lately even having a Super Bowl commercial and an appearance on The Tonight Show. The huge success that Nintendo has had with their mobile games and the NES Mini has also led to a lot of people talking about Nintendo over the past few months and increasing their momentum.

And now we have Breath of the Wild being one of the best reviewed games of all time which is generating even more hype. I've experienced multiple people that I know haven't cared about Nintendo in over a decade or more asking me about Breath of the Wild and expressing interest in buying a Switch to play it. I even have a friend that stopped playing video games many years ago that is interested in Breath of the Wild.

And next month there is a game that is going to be an even bigger system seller than Breath of the Wild getting released. It's called Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. Some of you people are underestimating this game. Yeah, it's an enhanced port of a game that was released years ago, but it was released for a dead system with no hype or good marketing and therefore many people in it's potential audience didn't get to play it yet. Mario Kart is the kind of game that appeals to everybody, both the hardcore gamers and the casual gamers, both men and women, both older gamers and younger gamers, etc. and with the enhancements that Nintendo is making to it such as fixing the battle mode, it will end up being the ultimate Mario Kart game plus it is the type of game that is perfectly suited for the Switch's console/handheld hybrid and local multiplayer features. This will be a huge system seller.

And then Super Mario Odyssey is going to keep the momentum going and will be a big system seller for the holiday season. I also expect that Nintendo will start bundling in 1-2-Switch with the console during the holiday season (Ignore some of the reviews that are just upset at the price of the game and play this game with a casual gamer and you will see that it has the same kind of appeal that Wii Sports had and once it starts getting bundled with the system, it will be a big deal).

And then it's only a matter of time before Pokemon makes it's way to the Switch and brings it's huge fanbase with it.

Another great thing about the Switch is that even without Nintendo's stellar marketing campaign for the Switch, the Switch is a system that will market itself. Switch owners will be playing games like Mario Kart in public places which will lead to other people around them getting curious about the system and with the design of the Switch, it's easy to let other people try it out anywhere you are.

Like I said at the beginning, I do still think that Nintendo needs to eventually get the price down to $199 within a few years and I'm pretty confident that they will. Until then, the other things that I mentioned will keep the Switch selling well. Once the price drops to $199 that's when the system will hit it's sweet spot in terms of price and really start selling like hotcakes.

Dont understand why an exclusive so soon after matters when Mario Kart 8 deluxe is coming...

Given that Wii U ownership was low amongst general gamers, this could be their first version of it... with a ridiculous ammount of content, fully portable and online.

People are underestimating Mario Kart ...

And even then, they could announce Smash ports etc.

More than Xbone + Scorpio combined. Its biggest system sellers haven't released yet, just wait when we get Mario Kart, Super Mario Odyssey, Pokemon, Monster Hunter.

20-30 million. That is realistic to me at this point. But, it is faaaaar to early to tell. But I do hope it sells well. It walks a fine line between a powerful handheld and low powered console. that has been discussed in depth on this board multiple times. It has an identity crisis like the Vita did. Nintendo would be better served marketing this thing as a powerful handheld that happens to connect to your TV. As it stands now, Nintendo is marketing it as a console that happens to be portable. Perception of something does matter. Regardless of how it turns out I wish them the best of luck.

No option for 1 Billion?

@storm_of_swords: Your very bullish on the switch based on what dreams??

The switch has been out like 2 weeks and it's already jail broken with no 3rd party support plus hardware defects (joycon disconnects/scratched screens/orange screen of death ect). Then the price is too high and it has no 3rd party or even 1st party games yet.

I will be surprised if nintendo ships even 5 million this year.

The console is out for two weeks and you want a prediction? Just a bit premature huh?

between 15M-20M

the only people buying a switch are the die hard nintendo fanboys that bought the Wii U and a few extra million people that fell for the hype.

I think it will break 60 million, I see this being a rather popular system... Nintendo still have a lot to sort out with the system though, and need to ensure there are regular game releases. Get those handheld games on there like a Pokemon and it will be just fine.

that would be More Than 90 million :P

Damn, I'm surprised you'd say that, but I do agree with you. 30 - 35 million would be best case scenario, no way is it selling 40+ million units.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is just a remaster. How many people who own the Wii U version are really going to repurchase for some extra tracks, karts and multiplayer options?

erm, myself, and the 2 other freinds who own one?

Granted Anecdotal... but again, heavily underestimated the value of portable mario kart.... especially with the new battle mode.

Again. potentially alot of peopel who did not have a Wii U too.

More Nintendo Switch threads from Charizard...lol. Take a break man...lol

I think it will sell slightly better than the Wii U. So it will probably not be a success.

Shill's have to earn their money.

over 50 million i'm guessing

60-70 million at most. That's if it's momentum is kept in tact throughout it's life. If it gets WiiU style droughts then 20-40 million. It will sell more than the WiiU WW in Japan alone.

People will play Zelda and then return the device to Nintendo because they'll find out there's nothing left to play. Nintendo will end up paying people to use the Switch. -200 units will be unsold by this method. Nintendo goes hyperbankrupt, a kind of bankruptcy that opens a black hole that swallows them and then spits them out because nobody will like the Switch in any other dimension. Nintendo commits seppuku, Sony eats Nintendo's corpse to try absorb that old school Nintendo mojo, but none of it is left. Sony vomits because it fails its saving throw against all of Nintendo's crappiness. Nintendo effectively becomes Sony's vomit. #ÜberPedro

I'm repurchasing it. So that's one... lol

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe sales will definitely be interesting to see.

I'm repurchasing it as well, so that's another one you can add.

It has more than just extra tracks and karts, it also has new weapons, portability, gameplay improvements, and the biggest new addition is the brand new battle mode. The new battle mode alone makes it worth a repurchase to me since the battle mode on the Wii U version was not the kind of battle mode that fans wanted, but this new one is what fans wanted. Plus, it will sell to the many people that never owned a Wii U.

Idk but maybe 50 million.

I still haven't bought one yet (probably the summer).

Total guess obviously, but probably around 40 million... maybe 50.