This was posted at Neogaf in a similar thread by Aquamarine (maybe another analyst?):
Patcher Predictions for Wii U in Comparison to NPD:
November 2012: 450K prediction-> 425k reality, 25K over-predicted.
December 2012: 675K prediction-> 463K reality, 212K over-predicted.
January 2013: 125K prediction-> 57K reality, 68K over-predicted.
February 2013: 80K prediction-> 66K reality, 14K over-predicted.
March 2013: 55K prediction-> 68K reality, 13K under-predicted.
April 2013: 55K predicted-> 37K reality, 18K over-predicted.
May 2013: 32K predicted-> 33K reality, 1k under-predicted.
June 2013: 38K predicted-> 42K reality, 4K under-predicted.
July 2013: 30K predicted-> 29K reality, 1K under-predicted.
Aughust 2013: 30K prediction-> 31K reality, 1K underpredicted.
September 2013: 55K prediction-> 95K reality, 40K under-predicted.
October 2013: 75K prediction-> 50k reality, 25K over-predicted.
November 2013: 150K prediction......?
Now that's 6 over-predictions amounting to 362K. The sum of his 6 month under-predictions amounted to 1/6th of that. It strikes me that Patcher's been giving the Wii U the benefit of the doubt most of the time, and when he's not he's only been off marginally so, except for September.
Now these are system numbers, not software, but he seems to be doing a pretty good job considering he doesn't have a crystal ball. Even if Patcher drastically misses the mark when tomorrow's #'s drop, Nintendo's will still need to be miraculously better to even begin to have a chance of looking at all on the optimistic side.
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