@charizard1605 said:
@santoron said:
Short term bump in hardware, but very high attach rate for title sales. People act like Mario Kart hasn't been on every Nintendo platform for forever now. It's just something you assume, and my guess is the biggest fans of the franchise are among the diehards already owning a machine.
I guess a sizable first month bump (for a typically slow month) and mild second month bump in console sales, before returning to normal.
I find there to be multiple problems with this argument- not every Nintendo fan or Mario Kart fan necessarily owns a Wii U. Many might have decided to not spend money on the system until a game that they were interested in (i.e. Mario Kart) was available in the first place (probably also correctly assuming there would price drops and/or bundles by then). Many Nintendo die hards might be pushed into buying a Wii U now, with Mario Kart being the catalyst that pushes them to buy it, and the rest of the lineup representing a critical mass.
This isn't even to discuss the series' massive appeal outside of the Nintendo diehard. If you want to talk about the so called Mario Kart fanbase, it is at the very least in excess of 10 million people- so nearly half the people who like Mario Kart have not yet bought a Wii U, and are now likely to, especially given all the heavy pushing Nintendo is doing for this title.
Having said that, I agree there won't be a sustained bump, all from Kart itself- rather, Kart has a bump that lasts a few months, and when it begins to taper off, Smash comes along and provides another bump. Wii U is probably not going to sell at PS4 or even Xbone levels, but at the very least, it will be lifted above its current trajectory to somewhat respectable levels.
Sure sure, not EVERY MK fan has a WiiU, which is why I allowed for a short term bump. Some have been waiting for this and/or Smash, and some will see value in the bundle or with the free game giveaway (which is why I went two month bump.)
But 10 million Die Hard have to own the game Mario Kart Fans? I don't see it. It's sold gangbusters on platforms with high install bases, but less so on smaller systems, and WiiU makes the smallest of install bases look large in comparison. Like I said earlier, it's a game that if you have a Nintendo from the last 20 years, you can play MK on it. A game that you buy for the platform you own, not go buying a platform to own.
I see a high attach rate for the game, and decent legs going forward. For example, if we end the year with say 9 million WiiUs, I can see 6 million in MK sales, partly because of MKs popularity with the core Nintendo audience, and partly because they are giving away a free game with it. And as the WiiU's install base creeps forward, I do think MK will continue to sell.
I guess I don't think the modest goals you list for a sustained minor bump going forward are out of bounds. If any increase at all going forward is enough cause to celebrate I can see your argument, but I don't see them approaching the other consoles for any sustained period. It's going to take a price cut to get them headed to even GC levels.
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