it depends; if you plan to download a boatload of stuff from Xbox live, then get an elite. If you just play games, get the pro. Avoid the arcade because of lack of hard drive.
Don't get the arcade, unless you're gonna play Tetris and Pacman all day. I have the Pro, and it's enough for me (so far). I've downloaded all the maps for Halo 2, as well as the Heroic map pack for Halo 3. I also have some demos. And I still have about 8 to 9 gigs left. That's plenty. But I still suggest going for the Elite, if you want more than enough storage space, and 1080p right out of the box.
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