Bungie addressed this in their last weekly update. Here's how it works:
1.) In the event of any non-simultaneous strike, the person who melees first will win IF his opponent's health is low enough that he can be killed with one strike.
2.) In the event of a simultaneous strike, the person with the most health wins, assuming both players health levels are low enough that they can be killed with one strike.
Obviously if your shields are up you might survive a melee attack and then be able to beat down your opponent if his shields are lower than yours were.
Sometimes on movie playbacks it looks like the person to strike second wins. In truth, this is an animation glitch caused by server lag. The strikes are calculated in real time, but the animation takes half a second to catch up. Regardless, the correct person wins, however it looks in the movie. They are trying to fix this, but the easiest way to do so is have host advantage (a la Gears) which is not preferable.
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