Amid all the speculation (read: pulling nothing but opinions out of thin air) from all over about which system will win and which one is better, I figured I'd put together a little piece with some numbers to put things in perspective. Here are total unit sales for most major entries into the gaming console market since the early days, in order of highest to least relevant (numbers gathered from Wikipedia, most recent numbers at the time of this writing): Sony PlayStation 2 - 111.25 million Sony PlayStation - 102.49 million Nintendo NES - 60 million Nintendo SNES - 49 million Sega Mega Drive / Genesis - 35 million Nintendo 64 - 32.93 million Atari 2600 - 25 million Microsoft Xbox - 24 million Nintendo Gamecube - 21.20 million Sega Master System - 13 million Sega Dreamcast - 10.6 million Sega Saturn - 10 million Colecovision - 6 million Intellivision - 6 milliion Panasonic 3DO - 6 million Microsoft Xbox 360 - 6 million PC Engine / TurboGrafx-16 - 5 million Atari Jaguar - 4.41 million SNK Neo Geo - 1 million Total Sales by Manufacturer of the current console manufacturers: Nintendo NES - 60 million Nintendo SNES - 49 million Nintendo 64 - 32.93 million Nintendo GameCube - 21.20 million ------------------------------------------------------- 163.13 million since 1983 (introduction of the Famicom in Japan) averaging 7.09 million units per year during their time. Microsoft Xbox - 24 million Microsoft Xbox 360 - 6 million ------------------------------------------------------- 30 million since 2001 (introduction of the Xbox) averaging 6 million units per year during their time. Sony PlayStation - 102.49 million Sony PlayStation 2 - 111.25 million ------------------------------------------------------- 213.74 million since 1994 (introduction of PlayStation in Japan) averaging 17.81 million units per year during their time. Here is a breakdown of major players by generation: 1st Gen - (total = ??) pong consoles and the like, many manufacturers... I'm not even gonna try. 2nd Gen - (total = 32 million + minor players) Atari 2600 (25 million) Intellivision (6 million) Colecovision (6 million) 3rd Gen - (total = 73 million + minor players) NES (60 million) Master System (13 million) 4th Gen - (total = 90 million) SNES (49 million) Mega Drive (35 million) TurboGrafx-16 (5 million) Neo Geo (1 million) 5th Gen - (total = 155.83 million) PlayStation (102.49 million) N64 (32.93 million) Saturn (10 million) 3DO (6 million) Atari Jaguar (4.41 million) 6th Gen - (total = 159.25 million) PlayStation 2 (111.25 million) Xbox (24 million) GameCube (21.20 million) 7th Gen - (total thus far = 6 million) Xbox 360 (6 million) What does this mean? Well, for starters, it's a pretty clear indication that the battle hasn't even started yet. Considering the total numbers sold in a generation and how this number has always grown, we've probably only seen less than 4% of the total sales for this generation go by so far. In other words... it's a long road and a lot can happen. Certainly one can speculate given the direction companies seem to be leaning at the moment: Sony isn't exactly winning points in many ways with the PS3, whereas the 360 and the Wii are definitely turning heads. Here's my take... PS3 haters: if you think Sony cutting it's numbers for launch day is the death-knell of Sony, you're completely nuts. If you look at the numbers: if Nintendo or Microsoft doubled their market share AND Sony cut theirs in half, Sony would still win in total units. Certainly this is a possibility, though I wouldn't exactly call it very likely considering the length of time involved in a full generation. Sony would have to make a LOT of mistakes over 6 years for this to happen. Price point is a doozy... but it isn't likely to have as big an impact as you might think. Wii haters: The Wii is very likely to increase Nintendo marketshare considerably. It steps outside the box in a lot of ways and has gathered a ton of attention in unlikely circles. It is poised to become a phenomenon in much the same way the iPod is. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Wii double the sales numbers of the GameCube, given it's current momentum and Nintendo's marketing plans. 360 haters: Like it or not, Microsoft is making a LOT of smart choices this time around. Though the original Xbox is anything but a market success (sorry guys... but the original was a huge money pit for MS as a company... just look at their financials), the 360 is taking into account many of the downsides and trying to fix them. They've got a head-start and compelling games with a cheaper system and little noticeable visual difference to the more powerful PS3. Don't forget: consumers go where the content is... Atari 2600 had dreadful graphics compared to a Collecovision or even an Intellivision... but still beat both handily because they had cornered the market on the content side. Either way you look at it, more developers are embracing the 360, even Japanese developers, making the 360 much more of a player. My personal thoughts are that too many kids here look at the console wars through the scope of their individual experiences and trips to EB Games. The reality is: the war is long... and global... and includes a lot of people unlike you personally. Another bummer is that kids tend to get too drawn into the console wars with a more cognitive dissonance approach than a logical one. Let's face it... these are corporations, not your friends. They're here to make money, not to (necessarily) make you happy. Throwing hate around forums because you own a 360 and not a PS3 is not a logical approach (look up cognitive dissonance... and then re-read the Gamespot forums... or any forums for that matter). When it comes down to it, the three current players are all here to stay in this generation: 360 will sell well, offering compelling content at a more competitive price, with little visual difference to common consumers. The Wii will likely grow the industry in new ways, cutting out it's own corner rather than competing with the other two, and offering new experiences in an industry sorely lacking. The PS3 will also likely continue to be a force to be reckoned with, not likely selling as many units as it's predecessors, and possibly losing a bit of face with 3rd parties, but bringing very compelling content from 1st and 3rd parties as well. My projection for sales this gen, when all is said and done (probably 2012 or so): total units = 190 million (i figure that though the PS3 and 360 may scare a few people away, the Wii will pull a lot of people in, growing the industry in a pretty good spurt overall) PlayStation 3 = 65 million (this includes Sony losing over a third of their current market... but over a longer period of time. Considering the 6 year span here, I think it's fairly safe to believe they can retain nearly 2/3 of their current base. I don't, however, see this as a loss for Sony or consumers. In the full generation, Sony will be competing more with MS than Nintendo as they continue to target the "high end". In the final days, Sony will still lead for hard-core gamers with their high-power system, and consumers will reap the benefits of stiffer competition overall.) Xbox 360 - 40 million (Microsoft will likely sell a lot more 360s than they did original Xbox... enough to make the game division not such a money pit for the company. Compelling titles beyond Halo, competitive graphics with a cheaper price tag will go a long way, nearly doubling their market share. That said, their time to win Japan is all but past with very low results, meaning they're more likely to steal western market share from Sony than truly compete on Sony + Nintendo's home turf. All in all, a much more compelling experience for users.) Wii = 85 million (I can see the Wii being an immediate hit, making great numbers early on. Over time, however, I can see the other consoles capitalizing on Wii pulling in new market by standing out visually far above the Wii. Though the Wii will likely outsell all previous Nintendo consoles, it doesn't have the superiority that the other two bring to the table, making it's edge shorter lived than Wii fanboys might believe. Still... a very solid system and one of the top 3 systems of all time.) In the end, I think everyone has an opportunity to be a winner here... Microsoft will become a real threat to Sony in the console market by seriously increasing their share, Nintendo will sell more units than anyone else for a change, and Sony will still beat the company they are targeting the most (MicroSoft). In the end, all three are poised to meet their primary goals... and I think that's pretty win-win for gamers in general.