Two years in, the seventh-generation console war is shaping up to be the biggest and bloodiest ever. Things have not been this close since the days of the Sega Gensis and Super Nintendo. Last generation the PS2 destroyed all competition to become the best-selling console of all time, and the generation before the Playstation 1 enjoyed a huge victory over the Dreamcast and N64 (as much as either of those consoles may have had a few amazing games).
This round, though, there are three contenders instead of two. Following is a break-down of each console's current status, and then my predictions for who will be remembered as this generation's winner.
Nintendo Wii:
More than a year after its release, Nintendo Wiis are still flying off of store shelves faster than Nintendo can produce them. Along with the DS, hardware sales alone have made Nintendo the second-biggest company in Japan. From a distant third in the last generation to (currently) undisputed front-runner in this generation is quite a feat, so kudos to Nintendo.
The Wii has made impressive progress into nontraditional gaming audiences. Seniors, housewives, and fanboys all seem to enjoy Nintendo's innovative little console. I would personally think that anyone claiming the Wii has made gaming mainstream should look at sales figures for the Playstation 2 (with 150 milliounits moved, it's hard to argue games were niche last generation, but it's hard to argue the Wii's sucess when over 30% of users are G-G-G-AMER GIRLS OMG.
First-party titles are what they are. Everyone should be familiar with them by now. Mario, Zelda, Pokemon and Metroid (or all of the above in SUper Smash Brothers): most buyers know what they're getting in Nintendo games, as they remain fun, approachable, and extremely successful sales-wise. The Wii has been criticized by game devlopers, however: third-party titles tend to fare much better on the Xbox 360. Repetition in software (mini-game collections anyone?) also tends to be a problem. While "serious" gamers opt for other consoles, Nintendo should be able to continue producing enough quality content to keep mosfanboys and early adopters satisfied.
Xbox 360:
The 360 has had an impressive start, thanks in no small part both to a one-year lead as well as the unrivaled success of Xbox Live. Gaming headlines seem to be made weekly last year when many previous PS3 exclusives, like Devil May Cry 4, were lost. The 360's impressive graphics have been a major selling point, as has a number of quality exclusives like Halo 3, Gears of War, Bioshock and Mass Effect. The 360's software sales have also been extremely impressive, with many titles moving millions and millions of units. Microsoft's Xbox Live is a feature worthy of particular note: multi-player games like Halo and Call of Duty 4 offer multiplayer experiences worth remembering, and XBLA features dozens and dozens of uniquegames and re-released classics available for download at a marginal price. Microsoft is currently the front-runner in exploring the promise of digital distribution.
That said, the Xbox has suffered from major setbacks. Failure rates have been (at minimum) five or six times greater than standard failure rates for most consumer electronics, with some esitmates placing failure rates on older models as high as 30%! The fabled "red ring of death" has frustrated many customers; luckily, Microsoft decided to address this issue by offering a 3-year extended (and retroactive) warranty. This cost them an estimated two billion dollars! Even with the vast success of Microsoft-published games like Bioshock and Halo, Microsoft game's divisions profits for 2007 were a measly $357 million. While this may seem high, keep in mind Microsoft made several billion dollars in sales of first-party and published games... which means most of these profits were whittled away by poor hardware performance and proprietary costs.
Given Microsoft's respectable install base, it is hard to say they will truly do "bad" this generation. Future titles like Ninja Gaiden 2 , GTA IV episodic content and Gears of War 2 promise quality exclusives in the short-term. 360 fanboys might do well to read the writing on the wall, however. Sony-championed Blu-Ray has officially "won" the high-definition format war at this point, meaning Microsoft's plans for a 360 with a built-in HD-DVD player are futile at this point. Internal development studio Bungie (of Halo fame) recently split with Microsoft. Oft Xbox-champion Bioware (Star Wars: KOTOR) was bought by EA Games... and since they own the Mass Effect IP, chances of a PS3 port seem good, and chances of Mass Effect 2 appearing on the PS3 all but inevitable. We are beginning to see a reverse in the trend that created many 360 excusives; now that the PS3 is enjoying noteworthy success, IPs like Dead Rising, Lost Planet, and Eternal Sonata (all previously 360 exclusives) are slated for PS3 appearances, with the promise of more to come. Which brings us to...
Playstation 3:
Ah, the Playstation 3. What a strange console you are! Originally released at the $600 price-point, many questioned the logic behind including an expensive Blu-Ray player and Cell engine in the PS3. Original price-point alone was probably responsible for much of the PS3's dismal early showing. Many valuable exclusives were lost as a result. Though Sony has a solid line-up of enjoyable exclusives, the lack of amazing triple-A exclusive titles remains its biggest critique, and rightly so. PS3 owners can enjoy many quality titles, like Resistance, Uncharted: Drake Fortune, Ratchet & Clank, Call of Duty 4 and Assassin's Creed. Given that all of these are either new IPs or also appear on the 360, however, Sony is lacking in titles that could truly be considered system-sellers like Super Smash Brothers Brawl or Halo 3.
Ironically, the maligned decision to include a Blu-Ray player from the start may have ended up winning Sony the console war in the long-term. The strength of the Playstation Brand alone has sold over 10 million units; while this may seem trivial compared to monthly Wii sales, from the perspective of HD-media players this is staggering. Blu-Rays players outsold HD-DVD players almost 5 to 1 by the end of the format war, with 90% of those sold Blu-Ray players being PS3's. Now that Sony has "won" the format war, so to speak, they have backed Microsoft into a corner as far as high-definition warfare is concerned. Sony stands to rule a $50 billion dollar industry as HD-media penetration increases and more users make the jump from DVD to Blu-Ray.
But what of games, you ask? For reasons beyond my reckoning, Sony has been slow to mobilize their massive collection of IPs and internal development studios behind their next-generation format. Given the overwhelming success of the PS2 (the PS2 outsold the 360 last month!), perhaps, only now are PS3 owners beginning to see the fruits of Sony's labor, as triple-A titles take several years to develop.
Quite frankly, the number of exclusives planned for the PS3 is absolutely mind-blowing:
Resistance: Fall of Man 2, LittleBigPlanet, Killzone 2, Haze, Metal Gear Solid 4, Metal Gear Online, Motorstorm 2, Final Fantasy XIII, Final Fantasy Versus-XIII, Final Fantasy XIII Hasdeia, Grand Turismo 5 Prologue, Disgaea 3, Ridge Racer 7, Tekken 6, Jak and Daxter: The Lost Frontier, Hot Shots Golf 5, inFamous, L.A. Noir (by Rockstar Games), two unannounced titles from the makers of Shadow of the Colossus, God of War III, Twisted Metal 3, White Knight Chronicles, Persona 4, Yakuza 3, Spyro the Dragon 4, an MMORPG by NCSoft...
If you try to tell me at least three of those games don't make you salivate, you're probably lying to me!
Conclusion:
The Wii will continue enjoying success. The 360 will remain a strong competitor. Most financial analysts, however, have Sony's Playstation 3 earmarked as this console generation's eventual "winner," and for two reasons. First, like the PS2 before it, Sony will probably move a huge number of units to non-gamers simply looking for the best next-generation media player at the most affordable price. As the only Blu-Ray player that is fully upgradeable, the PS3 is easily the player of choice. Secondly, the 360's success has demonstrated one underlying truth behind the entire industry, and that is this: gamers go where the great games are. Multi-platform titles like Soul Caliber, the Call of Duty series and Capcom's franchises will keep the 360 very strong along with the occasional great exclusive, but beyond 2008 Microsoft seems to have very few prospects available while Sony has finally put its full gargantuan game-development weight behind the PS3.