Lately, I've noticed some doubt in the forums as to whether Twilight Princess will actually hit the Gamecube on December 11th. I honestly have to say that I have my doubts as well.
If Twilight Princess was not the only launch game that was from the "holy trinity"; in other words, if Metriod Prime 3:Corruption or Super Mario Galaxy were ready to ship on day 1, I wouldn't be to concerned about the Gamecube version of Twilight Princess. On launch day, without Twilight Princess, are there really any compelling reasons to buy a Wii for the hardcore gamer? Wii Sports, Excite Truck and Call of Duty 3 are not going to fill that void. Unless Nintendo Wii's and Wii copies of Twilight princess are selling on 1:1 ratio, I fear for the Gamecube version's existence.
It would be an incredible mistake not to release Twilight Princess on the Gamecube in my opinion. Out of the 15 million or so Gamecubes out there wordwide, I'll bet 5 million of them are still being played. At least 1 million of them in the states alone are probably Nintendo loyalists. Canning the Gamecube version would be a wound that would not easily heal even among the hardcore Nintendo fans. Overall trust with Nintendo would fall with their fanbase.
More importantly, is the effect it would have on retailers. Retailers have been taking preorders on Twilight Princess on the Gamecube for almost 2 years now. Having to refund or redirect all of those preorders would definately cost these retailers alot of time and money. Making retailers annoyed is not a good idea when you're launching a new system up against a hype machine such as Sony's Playstation 3.It's just bad business.
Nintendo can't afford to not launch Twilight Princess on the Gamecube in my opinion, looking at Sega's history with a list of similar events leading up to the Dreamcast. The Dreamcast was an excellent gaming machine, way ahead of it's time, with some truly excellent games and 3rd party support. It was ultimately Sega's own reputation that killed the Dreamcast. Gamers and retailers couldn't get over the SegaCD, 32X and Saturn fiasco. A little of good faith towards your fanbase can go a long way, and the release of Twilight Princess on the Gamecube would most definately make up for Nintendo dropping support of their console in early 2005.
Even without Twilight Princess, I'll be getting Baiten Kaitos Origins and Tomb Raider Legends in order to finish my Gamecube collection this winter. If Twilight Princess is not available for my Gamecube, my relationship as a loyal customer with Nintendo will end as well.