6 months ago I thought HD-DVD (hereafter simply HD) would win out over Sony's BluRay (BR) for a number of reasons.  First, given the outcome of prior format wars, Sony has usually lost.  Examples are Betamax and MiniDisc.  Secondly, the industry giants backing HD were initially lined up stronger behind them, vs. BR. 

That has now dramatically changed.  BR is gaining momentum with movie studios, PC manufacturers and many consumers backing its format.  MS may the the loser in the console battles of PS3 vs X360 if they include an HD drive instead of BR, if BR is the eventual successor.  However, the lifespan of the consoles will probably be about the same time it takes for the format war to declare a victor anyway, and by that time, the next consoles are rolling out with all new hardware anyway--so who knows. 

One of the proclaimed advantages of HD over BR was that manufacturing facilities were supposed to be able to use the existing infrastructure whereas BR would not.  This would have meant a substantial cost increase for the production of BR discs since it would require new equipment for manufacturing.  However, it turns out that the cost difference for making BR vs. current DVD is much less than thought. 

Obviously, the huge advantage BR has over HD is capacity.  And, let's face it, that's what this whole deal is about--DVD simply doesn't provide enough space anymore for cutting edge programs and HD image content.  So more is better if you ask me--despite Toshiba's claim that HD will provide various benefits over BR that will offset the capacity difference.  There are some compatibility issues and digital content dealios that are different between the formats, such as allowing purchased content to be copied to a HDD, a feature HD supports, but currently BR does not. 

Finally, with Sony incorporating BR in the PS3, as they did DVD with the PS2, that may be the final nail in HD's coffin.

So, although I initially supported HD, I'm now a convert to the BR camp, despite being an avid Xbox/MS supporter in the infamous MS vs. Sony console war.  All the aformentioned reasons, plus the fact that ultimately, I'm a gamer first and a fanboy second--that means if Sony makes a better product generation over generation vs. MS, then I'll buy their products.  Like I said--a gamer first--so what's best for gaming and the industry is what's best for me, and thus that's what I want.  I think the competition is healthy in consoles and software, BUT a format war benefits no one--everyone loses to some degree.

Having said all this, Bill Gates recently stated in a speech at Howard University in Washington, D.C., that this format war will eventually be a moot point because he sees the issue of storage capacity becoming strictly digital in the future.  That is to say, everything will be on accessible via the internet and the conglomerate and almost infinite composite storage space it represents.  Interesting, eh?  Bill didn't come up with this idea on his own--companies and networks have already long allowed access to their content if you agree to let the "network" essentially partition a portion of your HDD that is accessible to the network for storage.  Say, 10% of your HDD capacity you donate to the "network" so you can have access to it.  With an 80 gig drive, you've given 8 gigs of storage space for the network to use--and this multiplies exponentially for everyone who accesses the network in this way, donating a small portion of their local storage space for access to the full library.  Cool, huh?

 Well, if anyone ever actually reads this . . . frankly, I'll be amazed and just might poo myself.  I've been pondering much lately about the next generation "wars" that are rapidly approaching.  At first, I thought MS may have really screwed up with their timing, the whole MTV revelation stunt and so forth.  But now with industry analysts predicting a pretty decent showing for MS, and the blunders Sony seems to be making with the PS3--I have a little more faith. 

That said, I will not, unfortunately, be one of the launch day owners.  There are several reasons for that.  First, as mentioned above, the wars are on us.  And as a gamer, I want what's best for the whole industry.  Therefore, I'm going to watch the initial few months after the X360 launch, see how it fares, and let the games drop in price as well as peruse the reviews.  Furthermore, the widely known phenomenon of launch batch hardware usually has a glitch or two that is fixed in subsequent editions.  Take the first Xbox for example, with the Thomsen drives, the PSP with its screen issues, and more recently, the Ipod Nano with its screen issues.  After a couple million consumers "test play" their X360's, those more rare, but annoying bugs are likely to come out and be addressed with hardware updates.  Also, with the PS3 looming on the horizon, it will be interesting to learn fact from fiction on what Sony is going to do.  I'm a little partial to the Xbox camp, but if Sony's machine is all it's cracked up to be, heck, I'll get one of those too.  The main point here is, MS will most likely add some package bonuses as well as a price drop when the PS3 gears up for launch, and that is when I plan to jump in. 

Meanwhile, I'm still buying Xbox 1 games like crazy.  I still think the box has plenty of life in it.  If MS weren't losing so much money in manufacturing it, I'd bet it could keep going for a couple more years with excellent developer support.  Heck, look at the PS2 with much less powerful hardware, pissy online support, and about 18 months older than the X--it's still going strong and looks to continue too--and the PS3 will likely not be out in the states until Fall '06  at the earliest.  Yes, the word on the street is "Spring '06," but you can be pretty damn sure if that date is actually made (not looking likely right now) it would be for Japan, with the US naturally falling several months to a year later. 

So, I'm still supporting Xbox 1 like I have since launch.  I'm praying that developers don't drop support too quickly for it, cuz I still think it's a fantastic system and will still interface with Xbox Live Gold's interface. 

Lastly, the basic issue here is that I can't afford an X360 yet.  Not the premium version anyway with an extra controller and a few games (and BTW, who in their right mind would buy one without the HDD???)  That is a frickin' HUGE gimmick by MS and it's going to confuse the more casual consumers who don't read stuff here on the game sites.  They're going to go to Best Buy or WalMart and see the X360 box and just grab whatever's available for little Johnny's Christmas--they'll then be upset to find out that it can't even save games without a memory card ($40) and the HDD itself is $100. 

Yep, so I'm playing Xbox 1 like it's 2001 and I'm pretending I'm not any the wiser that a next generation system is just around the corner.  I mean, yeah, the thing looks sexy as hell, and I'm dying to have it for all the extra media stuff and full-time Live connection it boasts--but until the dust has settled--I'm just gonna wait.  I learned my lesson with Sony's damn MiniDisc.  I loved the thing--until the Ipod and all the other HDD players out there destroyed the MiniDisc as a viable option--I can't even find the Hi-MD discs for sale ANYWHERE except as imports on Ebay.  So, I'm going to wait and see.  Not to start another topic, but the whole Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD thing is going to be very interesting.  I think Sony might win out on this one with Blu-ray based on capacity and incredible industry support, not to mention it'll be in the PS3--just like DVD was in PS2 and took DVD a quantum leap forward in a very short time.  TTFN