On the 16th November, it was announced that Brawn GP would become Mercedes Grand Prix for the 2010 season. This leaves a nice little piece of history for the record books, as Brawn GP - despite competing in only 17 races in their history - will be the most successful F1 team ever. Winning 100% of every championship they fought for, and winning 47.04% of all races entered too.
However, there is a major downside to this move to Mercedes Grand Prix - and that is it now seems likely Jenson Button will be leaving the team to join McLaren. Don't get me wrong, McLaren is a fantastic team with brilliant employees who can build great cars, but Button doesn't need to go to Woking, especially when the current line-up consists of Lewis Hamilton.
The problem is that Hamilton and McLaren is the equivalent of Alonso and Renault - except in this case, done a bit more fairly. In the case of the Macca boys, at least they acknowledge they have a 2nd driver. The problem is in comparison to Lewis, Jenson is still unlikely to get the same treatment as Hamilton. Lewis, being the protoge of Ron Dennis and growing up within McLaren, knows everyone, gets on with everyone and is a vital part of the team. Button's only links to McLaren are through running the Mercedes engine this year.
Secondly, the team are still not perfect - yes, they were much stronger in the second half of 2009, and Hamilton did score the most points - but the car is still not perfect given even through those good times, it could only win two races. In that same period, Red Bull won 4 races, Brawn GP won two and even Ferrari managed to take a win. Yes, they were on the backfoot because of the 2008 title fight and the massive changes in regulations, but starting the season 2.5 seconds off the pace of the fastest car is plain awful. Whilst the regulation changes for now and 2010 are nowhere near as big, it must be taken into account they - along with Ferrari - now need to learn how to set up the car without KERS. There have been times when both teams ran a race without it, but those were both when the car was performing awfully. Again, this change could initially hinder the likes of McLaren.
Let's not also forget the way both men drive their cars. Lewis loves a car on the edge - one that tries to fight him but that he can fight back - a car that puts plenty of demand on the tyres as he'll drive rough, as most drivers do. Then there's Jenson, who could not be any more different in his way of driving. He loves a car that has a tiny bit of understeer, one that works for his way of being easy on the throttle and brakes - his way requires next to no demand on the tyres at all. There is no way McLaren can produce a car that suits both of their needs, and so they can only go one way - and given this is Hamilton's team, it's a pretty safe bet Jenson's gonna get the raw end of the deal. Therefore, it's gonna be safe to say that with a car that doesn't work for Jenson but works fantastically for Lewis, McLaren will end up making Jenson another Kovalainen, another Coulthard, another Prost.
Still, you're probably asking "it can't be thatbad though? He's with a top team, he'll still be in a competitive car!"
That may be so, but compare it to what he could have:
Brawn GP is now Mercedes Grand Prix. Ross Brawn is still at the helm, and is probably the God of Formula One right now. He turned a team which was stuck in the backmarkers into a team that won both championships in 2009. Even with no capabilities to fend off McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull near the end of the year, they were STILL beating them, and took 11 points in the final race of the season where Macca and the Scuderia both took nothing. Now, it's a manufacturer again, and has major funding from Mercedes. They already have a strong car, it never ran KERS in 2009, so needs only minor changes in comparison to McLaren. That instantly puts them in a strong position for 2010 - all it needs is a brilliant driver line-up. In Nico Rosberg and Jenson Button, that's a guarantee and a pretty good shot for keeping the titles where they currently reside. In Nico Rosberg and Nick Heidfeld, it's a guaranteed loss. Nico could take the Drivers Title if given the right car, but that's not for certain, and Heidfeld still hasn't even won a race, let alone been a contender for a title. Then again, Button never had been a title contender until 2009.
Mercedes say they don't need two German drivers, then I have to ask why they're contemplating it. Heidfeld - as much as I rate his talent - would be a real boost to one of the new teams in getting them off the ground and helping them become more competitive. If Mercedes really wants a shot at both titles, they need Button and Rosberg as a team. That too also allows Raikkonen to team with Hamilton - and when you think of it that way, look at what the top 4 teams would be:
Mercedes Grand Prix: Jenson Button & Nico Rosberg
Red Bull Racing: Sebastian Vettel & Mark Webber
Vodafone McLaren-Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton & Kimi Raikkonen
Scuderia Ferrari: Felipe Massa & Fernando Alonso
That alone would make eight genuine contenders for the Formula One World Drivers Championship. If Button joins Hamilton and Heidfeld goes to Mercedes, that really only makes six - because Jens wouldn't have the support Lewis does, and Heidfeld just hasn't been fully able to get the break he needs in a good car. If we had the line-up as shown above, it truly would show the eventual World Champion as a deserving one given how close these four teams will (hopefully) be in 2010.
So Ross... you've got the funds to do it now - up Jens' salary and keep him with the right team!