I'm bored as all hell right now so I made "1/3 Year Predictions" even though all of this is 100% speculation and ummmm that's about it. Not gonna go into other possible nominees because that would take years.
Best Picture:
Hereafter
Inception
Love and Other Drugs
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Somewhere
Toy Story 3
The Tree of Life
True Grit
The Way Back
Why would these be nominated for Best Picture?: Hereafter is scripted by Peter Morgan (The Queen, Frost/Nixon) and directed by Clint Eastwood. 'Nuff said. In fact, a lot of these are "'nuff said" movies. Inception I feel will be the D9/Avatar of the year in that it will be hugely popular and make lots of $$$ but it won't get anything but technical awards. Maybe an original screenplay nod if the dialogue is top notch, but it seems pretty action/thriller so I dunno if it will excel on dialogue. *shrug* Anyway, Love and Other Drugs is made by notorious Oscar baiter Ed Zwick. This one has a nice cast attached to it and is getting good buzz. It is being billed as the dramatic rom-com of the yar (kinda like Up in the Air). The King's Speech is being directed by Tom Hooper (John Adams, The Damned United), is a period piece, and has a huge cast. The Social Network is being made by critic favorites David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin. It isn't really the most thrilling premise though and I could see it easily not being nominated. Somewhere is by Sofia Coppola and is supposedly a retun to the greatness of Lost in Translation. But as far as I know there isn't any romance, just a father and daughter reconnecting. MOVING ON. Toy Story 3 is Pixar and most Pixar movies would have been nominated for BP if there were ten nominees over the past few years. Don't see why TS3 will be any different. The Tree of Life, True Grit, and The Way Back are all directed by directors who have gotten Oscars and have nice casts to carry the movies. All three of these should be guaranteed nominees.
Director:
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Joel & Ethan Coen - True Grit
Terrence malick - The Tree of Life
Peter Weir - The Way Back
I think TKS is going to be a huge acting movie which will get Hooper a lot of credit. Nolan is last year's Cameron. The Coen Bros are there for obvious reasons, as are Malick and Weir.
Lead Actor:
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Robert Duvall - Get Low
Jake Gyllenhaal - Love and Other Drugs
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
Acting is hard to predict since most Oscar movies haven't revealed much info and we aren't sure if someone is doing lead or supporting. Now that that is out of the way, why do these guys get nominated? Well, Jeff Bridges is playing a character that gave John Wayne an Oscar. The Coen Bros. do a good job of getting nice performances and Bridges is hot off his first Oscar win. I wouldn't be surprised if he got two in a row. Duvall I think will be nominated because he is already getting a lot of buzz and because he's OLD and the Academy will honor him. Gyllenhaal will be the lone comedic role that gets a nomination like last year's Clooney. Firth is the lead in a big acting movie so it seems sort of obvious that he will get nominated. Pitt is a good actor and I'm sure Malick will get a lot out of him.
Lead Actress:
Annette Benning - The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Helen Mirren - The Tempest
Natale Portman - Black Swan
Julia Roberts - Eat, Pray, Love
Benning is a former Oscar winner and buzz for TKAAR says the actors are great. So that's that. Rabbit Hole is about a couple dealing with the death of their son so I am sure Kidman will get plenty of time to BAWW and stuff which the Acaemy will like. Mirren has been on fire the past few years and I'm sure she will do a lot wth her role in The Tempest. Aronofsky is a great director for actors. The movie is also supposed to be all psychological thriller-y and that will give Portman some scenes to look all FREAKED OUT in. EPL is an Oprah movie and Roberts is the only lead I think so she should have lots of screentime to make the case for an Oscar.
Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Josh Brolin - True Grit
Ed Harris - The Way Back
Sean Penn - The Tree of Life
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Bale gets to play a coked out boxing trainer. The Fighter is also supposedly getting good buzz so that helps. Brolin put on a great show in NCFOM and now he gets to work with the Coens again but he'll probably be talking more. Will that help? I have no idea! Matt Damon could also get in there (for True Grit or Hereafter). Harris got an Oscar nom under the direction of Weir and I don't see why he won't get another chance. Penn always gets nominated for Oscars... Rush plays a cooky guy in the biggest ensemble of the year, so...
Supporting Actress:
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Keira Knightley - Never Let Me Go
Julianne Moore - The Kids Are All Right
Imelda Staunton - Another Year
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
HBC gets in for being in that movie. Never Let Me Go has a big female cast and I think Knightley is the one who stands out. Moore is a big Oscar actress and as mentioned earlier, TKAAR is getting good acting buzz. Imelda Staunton was nominated thanks to Mike Leigh a few years ago. And that is right, I put her in there despite the fact that NO ONE knows what that movie is about or what sort of role Staunton plays. >_> Steinfeld is a no name but the Coen bros get no names to do well all the time. She might end up being a lead though.
Original Screenplay:
Hereafter
The King's Speech
Somewhere
Toy Story 3
The Tree of Life
Peter Morgan for Hereafter has two other nominations. I don't see why he can't get a third. Coppola can easily get a second nod. Malick is pretty obvious. Toy Story 3 could easily fall out if Inception does well in the dialogue department as I said earlier. The King's Speech is probably going to be pretty talky, so there it is.
Adapted Screenplay:
Love and Other Drugs
The Rum Diary
The Social Network
True Grit
The Way Back
LOAD gets in since it is a BP nom and the lone 'dromromcom' >_> Bruce Robinson probably made good use of Hunter Thompson's book. Aaron Sorkin's screenplay has been circulating around the web and is getting lots of praise. The last two are, once again, obvious.
Animated Feature:
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Don't think enough animated movies are being released this year to make it five nominees. HTTYD is a surprise to everyone and is a lock already. The Illusionist is by the same people that made The Triplets of Belleville and the script is by Jacques Tati, so that is probably a lock too. Then there is the other lock... Toy Story 3. I bet you all the money in the world that these three movies will be the nominees.
And that is all I care to do right now. Please leave a comment bashing my predictions and posting your own!