Not a whole lot has changed since I did the 1/3 Year Predictions... but here goes anyway. Nothing is in any particular order. I hope you enjoy reading really half-assed explanations that are written at 2am.

Best Picture:
The Fighter
Hereafter
Inception
The King's Speech
Miral
Somewhere
Toy Story 3
The Tree of Life
True Grit
The Way Back

Not a whole lot of change here. I dropped The Social Network because the movie could very easily be uninteresting, and Fincher has never done comedy (the script is supposedly hilarious). It is very close to being up there though. I also dropped Love and Other Drugs since Ed Zwick movies are always frontrunners for Oscars to start the year but then end up just being lame Oscar bait. It will probably be a top 15-20 contender though, like last year's Invictus, Star Trek, The Messenger, etc. I decided to add Miral, which is a big story in the middle east. It is directed by Julian Schnabel whose previous movies have been recognized by the Academy (Before Night Falls and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly). I think this is the time for a movie of his to get a BP nomination. I also added The Fighter. It has a great cast with Mark Wahlberg, Christian Bale, Amy Adams, and Melissa Leo. The Oscars love boxing and early screenings say the movie is great.

Movies that just missed the cut:
The Social Network
Love and Other Drugs
Winter's Bone (I think this is too under-the-radar for the Academy)
Black Swan (Academy enjoys robbing Aronofsky movies)
Never Let Me Go (I'm hesitant because Romanek only has one other movie under his belt)
The American (see above, but replace Romanek with Corbjin)
The Kids Are All Right (this will probably be too low-profile)

Best Director:
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Ethan and Joel Coen - True Grit
Peter Weir - The Way Back
Sofia Coppola - Somewhere

No changes here. If you want to know some people that missed the cut, look at the directors of the other BP contenders >_>

Lead Actor:
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Stephen Dorff - Somewhere
Robert Duvall - Get Low
Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
Colin Firth - The King's Speech

Dropped Gylenhaal for Dorff. After seeing the trailer for Somewhere, i think it'll be a big hit with the Academy. Sofia Coppola previously directed a Lead Actor nominee and I see it happening again.

People who just missed the cut:
Jake Gylenhaal - Love and Other Drugs (everyone else seems like a sure-fire nominee, so he loses out)
George Clooney - The American (I can't see the Academy putting 3/5 of last year's nominees back in)
Johnny Depp - The Rum Diary (not goofy, unlike Depp's other nods)
Mark Wahlberg - The Fighter (probably the weakest link out of his fellow cast)
Leo DiCaprio - Inception (probably gonna be too much action in Inception for him to show off)
Matt Damon - Hereafter (Eastwood does well for his actors but the competition is too stiff)

Lead Actress:
Anne Hathaway - Love and Other Drugs
Annette Benning - The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Carey Mulligan - Never Let Me Go

Dropped Julia Roberts since Eat Pray Love seems like such a... Lifetime movie. Helen Mirren dropped out for now because The Tempest looks strange. >_> Hathaway is getting rave reviews for her performance in LaOD. Mulligan is getting big after her nomination last year and it looks like she'll shine in NLMG.

People who just missed the cut:
Julia Roberts - Eat, Pray, Love
Helen Mirren - The Tempest
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone (could easily sneak in, like Melissa Leo in 2008 )
Freida Pinto - Miral (Schnabel gets great performances out of his actors but again, this is a tough year)
Hilary Swanke - Conviction (Swanke is big with the Academy and this movie is Oscar bait, but I think she'll miss out for a second straight year)
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine (seems too low profile of a movie)

Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Josh Brolin - True Grit
Sean Penn - The Tree of Life
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Ed Harris - The Way Back

Absolutely zero change here. >_> People who just missed the cut...

Chris Cooper - The Company Men (he's a great actor and this seems great for him, just lots of tough competition)
Matt Damon - True Grit (Brolin gets the better role so he'll sap votes)
Willem Dafoe - Miral (again, Schnabel does well with actors, just others will do better)

Supporting Actress:
Bryce Dallas Howard - Hereafter
Julianne Moore - The Kids Are All Right
Jessica Chastain - The Tree of Life
Imelda Staunton - Another Year
Elle Fanning - Somewhere

Supporting actress is weak this year. Dropped Helena Bonham Carter for Fanning. Fanning could easily be lead, but for now, I am assuming she doesn't show up right as the movie starts and will be billed as a supporter. Along with Bonham Carter, Melissa Leo and Amy Adams from The Fighter who I mentioned earlier could pick up nominations. Marion Cotillard in Inception, too, since she looks like she'll get lots of dramatic parts to show off her chops.

Original Screenplay:
Toy Story 3
Hereafter
The Tree of Life
Somewhere
The Fighter

Dropped The King's Speech since I foundout it's based on a play, and thus, not original >_> The Fighter gets in because it is a BP nomination.

Some that missed the cut:
Black Swan (since the Academy has never rewarded Aronofsky with a nomination)
The Beaver (this was at the top of the blacklist a year or two ago but being a dark comedy lowers it's chances a bit)
The Kids Are All Right (is a BP contender so it should be close)
Inception (too action-y of a script)

Adapted Screenplay:
The King's Speech
True Grit
The Way Back
The Social Network
The Rum Diary

Love and Other Drugs is dropped for The King's Speech, as it is more dialogue heavy. Other ones who missed the cut:

Miral (just doesn't seem like the script would be as talky and it is one of the "lesser" BP nominations)
Never Let Me Go (Alex Garland isn't exactly a prestiguous writer but his material could help him)
Winter's Bone (again, low profile)

Animated Feature:
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist

These are all pretty obviously going to be the nominees. I'm not sure if there are going to be five this year though. If there are, I would guess that Despicable Me and Legend of the Guardians would be the other two, with Shrek being right behind.

Documentary:
12th & Delaware
Restrepo
EXit Through the Gift Shop
Casino Jack and the United States of Money
Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work

I don't know jack **** about the documentaries this year. I know Restrepo, Joan Rivers and Exit are all getting rave reviews. 12th and Delaware is being done by the Jesus Camp people and I'm sure the liberal Academy will eat up the fact that it is about abortion clinics. Casino Jack is by Alex Gibney who has gotten two nominations before, and there is always a political documentary that gets in. 45365 is another acclaimed doc that I can think of. And uh... that's all I have to say about documentaries.


Well, there you have it. Those are my terrible predictions for the Oscars a half-year before nominees are announced! Please leave comments where you make fun of me for wasting my time on this and/or questioning my god-awful explanations as to why certain people wouldn't get nominated!!!