I am a prophet.


Best Picture (with new rules!!!)
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
War Horse
A Dangerous Method
The Tree of Life
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Artist

This seems like a weak year so I wouldn't be surprised if we are stuck at 5 in the first year of the new rule. Ides, War Horse, and J. Edgar seem like locks. The trailer for Dangerous Method makes it look like it'll be a big movie. The Tree of Life will probably get enough votes by the more high brow members of the Academy. The Artist was a Cannes hit and I think it'll be a surprise contender. Dragon Tattoo could definitely continue Fincher's recent Oscar success. Would scratch out the last two though if I had to go with five though.

Director
George Clooney - The Ides of March
Steven Spielberg - War Horse
Terrance Malick - The Tree of Life
Clint Eastwood - J. Edgar
David Cronenberg - A Dangerous Method

These movies are more Oscar-y than The Artist and Dragon Tattoo so they snag the nods.

Lead Actor
Leo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender - A Dangerous Method
George Clooney - The Descendants
Ryan Gosling - The Ides of March
Jean Dujardin - The Artist

I really wanted to put Gary Oldman for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. Oh well. He could beat out Dujardin if my hunch of The Artist being a surprise hit fails. Everything else seems pretty obvious. Leo may finally get his Oscar that he so desperately wants.

Lead Actress
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Keira Knightley - A Dangerous Method
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Elizabeth Olsen - Martha Macy May Marlene

Meryl Streep playing Margaret Thatcher is a lock for a nomination. Mara and Knightley look like they're really transforming into their roles in trailers. Close is playing a man or whatever in Albert Nobbs which usually means a nod if the movie doesn't completely suck. Olsen (yes, the younger sister to the Olsen twins) made waves at Sundance. MMMM could be this year's Winter's Bone.

Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Viggo Mortensen - A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Armie Hammer - J. Edgar
John Hawkes - Martha Macy May Marlene

John Hawkes continues the MMMM = Winter's Bone thing. Hammer plays Leo's lover in J. Edgar and supposedly gets lots of good scenes. Plummer's new film is getting him lots of praise. Viggo looks good in the trailer and playing Laurence Olivier seems like a great way of getting an Oscar nomination.

Supporting Actress
Vanessa Redgrave - Coriolanus
Kate Winslet - Carnage
Naomi Watts - J. Edgar
Marisa Tomei - The Ides of March
Viola Davis - The Help

I don't really know anything about this. Redgrave has been getting praise since Coriolanus premiered though.

Original Screenplay
J. Edgar
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
Martha Macy May Marlene
The Artist

Woody Allen gets his 15th Oscar nomination for writing I think. The Artist and The Tree of Life might be thin in the writing area since one is a silent movie and the other supposedly features lots of dialogue-less scenes. MMMM and Edgar seem like kinda obvious choices.

Adapted Screenplay
The Ides of March
War Horse
A Dangerous Method
The Descendants
Moneyball

Aaron Sorkin and Alexander Payne usually get Oscar nods so they're in. Then the heavy hitters for BP get the other nods.

Animated Feature (was there a rule change here? Can't remember)
Tintin
Rango
Winnie the Pooh
Cars 2
Kung Fu Panda 2

If this is three then I would guess the top three.

And that's all, folks.