So, recent news has there being an "Auction House" in Diablo III – actually, the news says there are 2 auction houses. One will focus specifically in-game (in game items, in game currency [aka gold]) and one will focus on internalizing the growing industry of money-for-pixels – spending dough through sites like eBay to purchase in-game objects of value. [Full disclosure: my friend bought an Enigma for his Paladin in Diablo II for something like 12 bucks - we mocked him ceaselessly for it] Three points I wanted to bring up: First Point: If I can list items on either exchange, I'm going to list it on the money exchange. Why? Because I can redistribute that wealth any way I want. If I only trade in the gold exchange, I can only get value in-game. It's not entirely clear if there is cross-over between the two exchanges – aka can you buy gold on the currency exchange and use it in the gold exchange? I think you can. I hope you can. Because if you can't, supply will shift heavily to the currency exchange, creating a weird, crippled auction in game and a hyperpowered, high cost currency auction. If there is a gold to currency exchange rate, then we've created a whole new economy. Complete with inflation and deflation. And that leads to point two… Second Point: in Diablo II, a group and I were doing Chaos Tristram runs singlehandedly – and we were able to shift the value of in-game unidentified Torches from 5hrs to 4hrs. We flooded the market and caused self-inflicted deflation. Whoops. It will be interesting to see what controls are put in place to prevent oversupply in the auction house, and thus super-deflating epic items. Of course, we as the Diablo III community should work together to make sure we don't over-supply good items. But we face a prisoners dilemma – If everyone pursues their own best interest, we all hurt.

Third Point: If gold to currency transactions exist, Diablo III just became a great value proposition. Think about it. Instead of spending $50 on a game that gives you hours of enjoyment – (valuable in itself), you spend $50 on a game that your in-game work can actually yield you monetary value in return.

For all of us who built up HUGE amounts of gold in our stores and just didn't pick it up anymore, you are who I'm talking about. Not only can you get a weekend of fun out of Diablo III – you might just make back your purchase price. Eventually, I predict the most hardcore of hardcore will start gauging their time spent in Diablo III not just in hours or Level…but in hourly wage.

What does history tell us about console strength and success based on launch titles? I gathered both Console and Handheld data through Wikipedia and sales data to try to find out what "makes" a game system. I explored a couple of thoughts: Is the number of games at release date an indicator of platform success? Do systems releasing the "best" games at launch become successful? and, if not, do those "best games" come out right after the launch to build buy in? You can find my results and mathemagic below, but here's the executive summary:

Nowadays, systems are presenting more games at launch, and those games typically do NOT go on to be the leading games on the systems. It often takes several years for the super-sellers to emerge. What does it mean for the 3DS and Vita? We need to give these systems time to emerge before we write them off. The games will come - history has shown us that we can't judge systems by launch stats, and that even the best systems need time to mature.

When can we write them off? If the volume of games severely degrades before the 2 year window when the system is eventually "figured out" from a development standpoint.
Launch Titles: On average, the first gen (Atari), second and third gen consoles released ~7.3 launch title games. These ranged from amazing launch titles: Ghouls 'n Ghosts and Golden Axe on the SNES, to TERRIBLE LAUNCH TITLES, like Connect 4 and "Defender of the Crown" on the CD-i Next Gen consoles - typically from 2000 on - released, on average, ~17.5 games. This trend is similar in handhelds - the "originals" (Gameboy, Gamegear, Virtual Boy, Gameboy Color) released about 5 games at launch, where "next gen" systems were releasing ~12.4. For reference, the 3DS had 18 games My results? There's [probably] no correlation between the number of games at launch and success - Look at the N64, which had only 2 titles at launch - that was pretty successful. The new trend is "more games at launch" - that's a function of the evolution of the industry. What is correlated, then? Amazing games at launch? The most successful consoles:

Sony PlayStation 2 2000 154.59 million Nintendo Nintendo DS 2004 147.86 million Nintendo Game Boy/Game Boy Color 1989 and 1998 118.69 million Sony PlayStation 1994 102.49 million Nintendo Wii 2006 87.57 million Best Selling Launch Title Games by System: Sony PlayStation 2 Crazy Taxi 1.383 million copies Nintendo Nintendo DS Super Mario 64 DS 9.65 million copies Nintendo Game Boy/Game Boy Color Tetris 35 million copies Sony PlayStation Rayman 4 million copies Nintendo Wii* Zelda: Twilight Princess 4.52 million copies *Discounting the bundled "Wii Sports" Best Selling Games by System Sony PlayStation 2 GTA San Andreas ~17.33 million copies Nintendo Nintendo DS New Super Mario Brothers 26.88 million copies Nintendo Game Boy/Game Boy Color Tetris 35 million copies Sony PlayStation Gran Turismo 10.85 million copies Nintendo Wii* Mario Kart Wii 28.23 million copies

So besides the Gameboy/GBColor's Tetris, no launch title has gone on be the top selling game for the best selling systems. But wait, that doesn't make a lick of sense! How long does it take for the best sellers to emerge on systems? It can't be that long, because great games make people accept the system as great. Right? What's the average time gap on system between the launch title and the release of its best selling game? Sony PlayStation 2 Release Date: Oct 26, 2000 GTA San Andreas RD: Oct 26, 2004 ...exactly 4 years Nintendo Nintendo DS RD: Nov 21, 2004 New Super Mario Brothers RD: May 15 2006 ~2.5 years Nintendo Game Boy/Game Boy Color RD: Aug 1989 Tetris RD: Launch Title N/A Sony PlayStation RD: Sept 9, 1995 Gran Turismo RD: Dec 23, 1997 ~2 years, 3 mos Nintendo Wii* RD: Nov 19, 2006 Mario Kart Wii RD: April 10, 2008 ~1 year 6 mos (Getting lazy, so excuse mathematics problems in date ranges) So, it takes several years for the best selling games on systems to emerge.* I would assume this is because developers take some time to figure out how to code and take advantage of the new system fully.

* If i had more time, i might do the top 5 games, or top 10 games, and witness my hypothesis crumble. Maybe Bonus Analysis: A Fun trend in launch title evolution for Nintendo Handheld games Gameboy launch titles include: Super Mario Land, Tetris GB Color launch titles include: Tetris DX, Pocket Bomberman GBA launch titles include: Super Mario Advance, Namco Museum DS launch titles include: Super Mario 64 DS, Spider Man 2 3DS launch titles include: Combat of Giants: Dinosaurs 3D, Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracle, Face Raiders. [Face Raiders? Really?] Where Art Thou, Mario? Where Art Thou, Tetris? If the 3DS has a weak launch portfolio, its surprising that Nintendo threw their two "go-to" launch titles out the window for this one.