OK, ok, the battle lines are drawn and firmed up already. The Crabs have started to come back from the stunning blow that was E3'06. Obviously, as a Lemming/Hermit/Sheep (in that order) I disagree with most of what they say. In fact, I find much of it seriously lacking in logic or rationality.

All the same, I can't help but wonder and how we got here and what it means for gamers overall.

SONY painted themselves into a corner with 2 risky gambles: the Cell and Blu-Ray. These technologies are risky because, quite frankly, no one has tried to go down these routes before. The Cell, although controlled by a PowerPC CPU, is an innovative idea which is more revolutionary than evolutionary. Blu-Ray relies on a new type of laser with a significantly shorter wavelength; although not revolutionary, it is certainly a large evolutionary step. The risk is that the early performance will not be worth the cost, and these might be 'dead-end' technologies.

By choosing to out-tech Microsoft (in reflection a distinction of dubious merit), SONY has made it impossible to compete on price. SONY hardcore fans and rich whiny brats notwithstanding, this is a fundamental error, because gaming consoles are an elastic, not inelastic good. In other words, a small change in price has a relatively large effect on the quantity sold.

In a world where rising housing costs are eclipsed only by the stratospheric price of gasoline, I'm willing to bet that many families who would be in the market for a PS3 will make other arrangments. I see the XB360 in the top slot with the Wii following in 2nd place, with respect to sales.

Why is this bad news for an admitted SONY anti-fan? In a word, CHOICE. If SONY flops as I expect, it is conceivable that they might pull out of the marketspace altogether. I hope they try a retrenching redesign with optional Blu-Ray, or something similar first, but the costs would be outrageous at this point. If Microsoft is left as the sole player in the high-end console market, I expect that innovation will suffer its usual fate in a monopoly.

If SONY is out of it, when can we expect the XBox 720 (or whatever), and why is Microsoft worried about giving us our money's worth? A lean and hungry company trying to prove itself will give we, the gaming population, what we want and deserve for our hard-earned cash. I think the lesson of the PS3 is that when a company gets old, fat, lazy and complacent, product will suffer.

I hope I am wrong about what might happen in the next year or so.

*knocks on wood & crosses fingers*