Everyone loves controversial points of view. I don't know if any of my points are really controversial, but I guess that's because I'm looking at them from my point of view. So here are my thoughts about what may happen in the video game world next year.
1. Microsoft will do something with Achievement points.
I've never been one for achievement points. I don't even know what my gamerscore is. Maybe 3000 after owning an Xbox 360 for 18 months? But if I could redeem them for something, that would be a lot more interesting. They would need to maintain your total score for those that love the bragging rights, and add a 'left to spend' value to your gamercard. The intriguing part is, what do you spend it on? The answer (or predictions) to that question could take up a blog all on its own.
I think this is the least likely of my predictions. It would be a fine balance finding something that Microsoft is willing to offer, that is also something that gamers find enticing. However, I have little doubt that this is something that someone at Microsoft is (and probably has been since launch) looking at long and hard to try and find an answer.
2. The Playstation 2 will cease production.
I think this Christmas might the last hurrah of the Playstation 2, and production will cease in the third quarter of 2008. At that stage, the PS2 and PS3 will have co-existed for over 18 months in all major territories, and Sony will want to shift the focus solely to the Playstation 3, which will already have gained momentum in the first half of the year. Notice will be given, and because of the lack of back compatibility in newer models of the PS3, PS2 consoles will fly out the door. Sony will stockpile them beforehand to meet the demand, but they'll still go fast.
3. Nintendo will release a hard drive for the Wii.
I think this is a no-brainer. With folks already complaining about the space their virtual console games take up and the upcoming WiiWare games, Nintendo will want to release a hard drive. We can only hope they do not charge an exhorbitant fee for an official hard drive, like Microsoft.
4. LittleBigPlanet will be the biggest system seller the Playstation 3 will have since launch.
Resistance : Fall of Man and Motorstorm were excellent launch titles for the Playstation 3. As has been documented, many of the exclusive PS3 games released this year have failed to live up to sales expectations. LittleBigPlanet will live up to all hype and expectations, and people will buy a system (including me) just to get lost in this game.
5. Microsoft will release a blu-ray drive for the Xbox 360.
I'm no analyst, but it seems blu-ray is going to win out in the high definition movie war. As such, I expect Microsoft will release a blu-ray drive add-on for the Xbox 360, which they have previously said was possible if HD-DVD didn't pan out. Expect a price drop on the Xbox 360 console, then an announcement on the drive shortly thereafter, so that the two combined will bear a price comparable to the Playstation 3. There is also potential for the Xbox to be completely rejigged with a blu-ray drive, replacing the Elite model.
6. Microsoft will make full Xbox 360 games available via download.
To clarify, games that have made their way to budget prices will be made available via download, to join the Xbox Originals at 1200 points, or possibly 1600. The Xbox and Xbox 360 games both fit on a DVD, so I don't think this is much of a stretch. I expect this will be for budget releases, and Kameo and Project Gotham Racing 3 to be among the first releases. This may be the best way to continue selling old product; once sales of physical product drop below a certain threshold, it may be more economical to switch it over to digital only distribution. Such an announcement could also be accompanied by a much-welcomed price drop for the 120GB hard drive, or a new hard drive offering altogether.
7. Sony will release back compatibility software as a download for Playstation 3 models without that functionality at the end of the year.
Whether as part of a general update or choice of download, this functionality will be re-introduced. However, I expect this will be announced after the Playstation 2 has been discontinued, in a sneaky (but smart) effort to sell more PS2's.
8. The gap in install bases between all 3 major systems will close.
Despite the Xbox 360 having a one-year lead, the Wii managed to sell more total units than the Xbox 360 in half the time. The Playstation 3 is generally selling less units than the Wii or Xbox 360 on a monthly basis. I predict that towards the latter half of 2008, the systems will be selling similar units each month. Many of those reasons are topic for debate, but here are my three major points.
1) More consumers will buy HDTV's and want to take full advantage of them, thus the Wii may look less attractive. The fact that the Wii can't play hi-def movies (and I assume this will no be feasible with an add-on) may also factor with these people.
2) Due to it currently being in 3rd place, Sony will keep good on its promise to keep the PSN network and Home free of charge, despite how much it may cost them. Due to it being commonly accepted for current users, Microsoft will not remove its charges for Xbox Live Gold memberships to compete. These things combined with the continual improvements to broadband services (and more focus on playing online) may lead to some new adopters of this generation of consoles to opt for a Playstation 3 instead of the Xbox 360.
3) People will buy PS3's as a glorified blu-ray player. My father hasn't played games for years, but wants a PS3 so he can watch blu-ray discs. While he might not use them very often, he knows it will have extra functionality over a stand-alone player should he ever want to.
So there you have it, some off-the-cuff predictions by the average gamer. Some of those predictions would not be entirely unexpected or surprising if they came to pass, while others might be a bit of a stretch. Do you agree with any of them? Are there some you think I've got completely wrong, and would like to debunk? I'm interested to hear your thoughts.