Prediction Time

So Sony has officially announced now that they will NOT be having a showing of the PS4 in any way at E3 this year. I'm going to say I told you so right here because I've pretty much been saying this same thing for the last two years. Sony is holding that 10 year plan up and clinging to it at the moment. Does that mean they aren't already working on the PS4? I seriously doubt it. In fact, they'd be dumb not to already have the thing in at least the design phase.

Nintendo is following their usual historically established roughly 5 year cycle and likely releasing the Wii U late this year. Microsoft (even though they refuse to comment on speculation and rumors) is likely going to reveal the NextBox at this years E3 with a launch date sometime in Q4 2013. This will get Microsoft's next gen console on the market about a year behind Nintendo. With both of their competitors having next gen consoles to market Sony isNOT going to sit on their hands for two more years before releasing a new console (however much they would like to stick to a 10 year lifecycle for the PS3). It wouldhurt marketability and relevance for their brand too much.

So I'm predicting we will see a showing from Sony at E3 2013 of the PS4 with a launch sometime 6 to 12 months after the NextBox. Right now they are going to remain focused on showing off the PS Vita. Expect a lot of talk of Vita integration with the PS4 when it's revealed in 2013, just as I expect a lot of talk of Kinect 2.0 integration out of the box with the NextBox at this years E3.