As it currently stands, Sony have the most market share by
far, at least in the home console business, with over 100 million PS2s shipped.
Of course, a number of these are replacements for broken PS2s, however that
does not change the fact that the number of PS2s sold is over double the number
of Xbox’s and GCs sold. Sony has been king of the console market for two
generations now, and like Nintendo before them, it has made them arrogant. They
believe their brand name alone will sell the PS3, and it’s status as a cheap
Blu-Ray player. Both of these are flawed; brand name, to casuals at least, will
not justify $500, and $600 is out of the question. They are also unlikely to
care about Blu-Ray; all they want is a games console. Casuals make up a great
deal of Sony’s market share, and until a major price drop, which probably won’t
happen until well into 2007, Sony will be rapidly losing customers. Less customer’s
means less sales for games, which means that developers, will begin to jump
ship.

As proven with the DS, innovation, and games that appeal to
non-gamers and casuals, works. Obviously, the Wii will get some criticism from
casuals because of the name, and Nintendo’s current image among casuals.
However, if the Wii-mote is as good as they say it is, and Nintendo set up
plenty of booths in stores so people can try it, more and more people will buy
the Wii. This, along with the Wii’s easy game creation, will encourage
developers to jump ship to the Wii, should the PS3 do badly.

And as for the Xbox 360, it has already seen moderate
success, and with many anticipated titles in production for in, coupled with a
major price drop, could turn the Xbox 360 into a huge success, at least in
North America and Europe.

Altogether, this next generation will be closer then the last
one. Sony, I believe, may still win, but will lose a huge amount of market
share. Microsoft’s second games console should see more success then their
first. Nintendo, if their gamble pays off, will be vastly more successful then
the GC, and the N64, and take them back to the forefront of the market.