The sheep cannot hope to retain the top spot for long due to the fact that the Wii suffers from two major drawbacks.

1. Lack of third party support.

This is crucial element needed by Nintendo. History has proven via the GC that third party support can make or break a system. Sheep will claim that it is coming citing Capcom making several RE games. But compare this to Wii's competition that is getting RE5, GTAIV, Orange Box, and UT3 while it is left out in the cold. Also, take in to consideration that more development time is put into third party games for the 360 and PS3 (ie. Madden). With the Wii's competitors getting more and better games than it, there is no way it can win system wars. And there are no high cailbur third party titles in the works on the Wii that can compete with the ones listed in sales. GTAIV will sale thousands of 360s and PS3s by itself.

2. No Direct appeal to target market

Who spends the most money on video games? Men from ages 18 to 30. Sheep can talk about how it is more benefitical to expand beyond this demographic, but this is the main market where sales come from. Also, this market is more tech savy than others because of its demands for HD and internet connectivity, two things that the Wii does not provide completely. If you want to sale a video game you make something for this market. Consequently, this market is driven by sex and violence which is something that Nintendo does not do well. No one buys the Wii for a violent game. It sales because of its franchices like Mario and Zelda which are morally water down adventures. I hate to say it but the market finds more mature game elsewhere.

The Wii is only in its current position due to its cheaper cost and the relative newness of its gaming style. When the 360 and PS3 drop enough in price we will see a negative effect on Wii sells. Sheep this is not an avalance your riding. It is only a steep climb to a plateau where there is no where else to go. The best the Wii can do is to become a companion system to the 360 or PS3.

In less than 12 days, all three console makers will have fired their big guns for the Christmas season by releasing exclusive games that will distinguish them from one another. My question is which one will have a biggest impact on the market?

Nintendo - Super Mario Galaxy

This game is already a big hit in Japan, selling over 250,000. It also has received stellar reviews with a 9.5 from GS. This being a classic Mario game and the use of the Wii remote will make this a must buy for all Wii owners. But will this effect non-owners?

This game will appeal to underage gamers and those that are nostalgic for Mario. So I believe SMG will be a big seller this Christmas.

PS3 - Uncharted

This is probably going to be the best game the PS3 will have to offer the year. Any die hard Sony fan will pick it up. Its mixture of Tomb Raider like setting with gameplay similar to GeoW might even cause consumers who favor that style to pick up the new $399 system. But will it do as well as its competition?

Uncharted does have great graphics and gameplay, but it lacks originality and a 10 hour length might hamper it. With SMG reportedly being twice as long and ME 4 times as long, consumers looking for more bang for their buck could skip it.

Xbox 360 - Mass Effect

This is being hyped as a sure fire hit and being made by Bioware almost guarantees it. The developer is known for its excellent RPGs and has not failed to disappoint. Its graphics, story, and depth should cause many Oblivion owners on the 360 to pick it up. But will it be the GeoW of 2007?

I doubt that ME can do as well as its counter part did last year, but there are many gamers out there that enjoy RPGs. And there are even more consumers that enjoy science fiction media. One of the voice actors use to be on Star Trek. Think what could happen if all the Star Wars, Star Trek, Battlestar Galactica, and Stargate fans bought this game. Microsoft would be smart to run their ads on the SciFi channel, which is already doing a 30 minute spot on this game.

TLDR Version

SMG and ME should be the big sellers this Christmas with Uncharted bring up the rear. SMG with its large user base on the Wii and fanbase. ME with its innovative features, setting, and depth. Uncharted not so much due to having been done before and shorter length. One could argue that these gamesaren't in the same genre, but they are the only big exclusives this Christmas to separate the consoles. Which one do you think will do the best this Christmas?