Answer - a dead XBox. Specifically my XBox 360 Elite, bought in late 2007, that's started freezing when played for too long in a single session.
I have been worried for a while. It's never been quiet, but it's been getting louder recently, and investigation showed it was likely a Zephyr mainboard based system. These are barely upgraded from the original Xenon boards, and have somewhere around 35% failure rates. And if you don't know what that means, it means each year, 1 in 3 fails. The electronic industry usually aims for around 5%.
So, my options were:
1. Keep using it until it fails properly.
This is in the hopes that it'll red ring 'o death on me, and immediately validate a replacement free of charge from Microsoft. Problems with this? No telling how long I have to put up with freezes mid-game for, or if it will even happen at all. Also, note that any mobo they swap into the system for me is also going to have a 35% failure rate, and the next gen consoles aren't expected before 2015
2. Send it back to Microsoft now.
There are a couple of issues with this. First, Microsoft charge somewhere between £60 and £90. I can't actually find the exact amount, and the Support centre for XBoxes is currently experiencing technical difficulties, which is an ominous sign for the administrative hell I hear I have to go through to get MS to help with anything. Also, they're known to be slow, and I'll only get another high failure system back - anecdotal evidence suggests repaired systems fail far faster than new ones, so it'll last maybe through next year.
3. Pay someone else to repair
This was an option I looked at for some time. The basic cost for a decent resolder/reball & clean is around £25. Add £5 (optimistically) for delivery. Then, ask for the fans to be replaced with silent but more effective ones, for another £12. Total cost comes in at £42 at least. Looking at these repair places, they offer warranty of repair for a cost, around £15 for 6 months. If they expect their work to last 2 years, they'd make a good profit on this. Therefore I'd expect another failure within 3 years. Better than MS option, but still short term and pricey.
4. Repair myself
This is cheap, as I'd only pay for materials. I have my own solder kit, and can do a slow but competent job from some years of practice. I've even got solder that contains lead, which would hopefully make a significant improvement. Unfortunately, I'm likely to spend hours on it, may break the machine permanently, and will do a worse job than the £25 standard above. My time is worth more to me than this.
5. Buy a new 360 S
The latest model XBoxes are out, with the new Trinity mainboard. It comes with an integrated CPU/GPU on 45nm tech, is smaller, black, and would look good on the media centre shelf. Unfortunately, the HD from my Elite would not fit, so I'd need to pay £190 for the 250GB model, or wait to the 20th and live with a mere 4GB of storage. On the plus side, though, I could probably sell the extra controller on EBay, or two in the case of the 250GB model, to cut the price down by £15 or £30.
There is another problem with this solution, however. The new machines are a new process, and are unknown in the reliability stakes. Expectation is, with the lower power consumption, and a single joint for the combined CPU/GPU, these machines will run quiet, cool and will live a long time. However, nobody actually knows for sure. Further, the "3 year warranty on RROD" from MS doesn't apply to the new Trinity based systems, as MS say it's a whole new product.
6. Buy a new Arcade
This is the option I went with, and for the following reasons.
The price is £109 from Tesco, which is actually £106.82 when taking clubcard points into account. I also get to use my existing vouchers on the purchase. Again, I get a new controller, that I hope to make £15 on the sale of. My existing HD from the Elite will fit, so I can just move it across, and if it turns out that the HDD was the issue all along, I can send the console back to Tesco within a week & get my money back. The new Arcade machines use the Jasper mainboard, which qualifies for the 3 year RROD-warranty, but is recorded as having a below 5% failure rate - giving me a life expectancy of 20 years, more than enough to last to the next generation of gaming.
The main disadvantage is that it'll be white, but I suspect that, should I want to be a fanatic about it, I can replace the casing with the casing on my Elite. I could theoretically fix & sell the old console on, but as I'd need a replacement HDD, I'd likely spend as much a I'd save. Or, I could fix it & set it up for LAN gaming. Of course my girlfriend may find out and kill me...
I pick up the replacement on Saturday between 4 and 6pm. Then, back to L4D2.
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