I talked to a couple of friends in my lab today and it turns out I was wrong before when I stated that nobody in my research group would be interested in buying a PSP. Both of my friends had heard about the PSP and were looking into possibly buying one, even though neither of them are really into gaming right now (although one of them did own an Xbox at one point, and the other one used to play Nintendo games such as Mario). So that was a pleasant surprise--maybe the PSP has mainstream appeal after all.

Of course, much is being made of the PSP sales over the past week, although official numbers haven't been released yet. It appears as though the PSP's first-week sales will be slightly higher than the first-week sales for the DS. But all those people who are using this information to argue that the PSP is either a success or a flop really need to stop. Just because the PSP did better in its first week than the DS doesn't mean that Sony will now dominate the handheld market. For one thing, the DS only had about 500,000 units available at launch, while the PSP had closer to 1 million units available. Additionally, the pre-launch hype for the PSP was significantly bigger than the hype for the DS--Nintendo was pleasantly surprised by the impressive sales for the DS, while Sony expected to sell out. And the DS sold primarily on the basis of its uniqueness--the system had relatively few games to entice buyers compared to the PSP, so the DS might have sold even faster with a better launch lineup. And for all the Nintendo fanboys who think the PSP has flopped, think again. The DS was released during the holiday shopping season, while the PSP was released during a slow sales month. And the higher price point of the PSP probably played a factor in slower-than-expected sales. Finally, Sony hasn't even shifted its marketing campaign into high gear yet.

The bottom line is that both systems will probably do quite well in the foreseeable future, and there's nothing wrong with that.

I just called the Best Buy where I bought my PSP to find out whether they had any units left. The guy told me that they had sold out an hour earlier. So it doesn't seem that the PSP is really flying off of the shelves around here--and I live in a college area that's also quite tech-oriented. Anyway, it looks like I'll have my "stuck pixel" PSP a little longer. I decided to watch a little bit of Spider-Man 2 on my PSP last night, but because I knew where the problematic pixels were, my eyes kept searching for them instead of watching the movie (I was able to see them quite a few times). So I'm starting to lean towards exchanging my PSP...I'll see what happens.

After I bought my PSP, I did an initial check for problematic pixels and didn't find anything wrong. However, I wasn't looking closely enough. It turns out that I have several stuck pixels (always lit) that are only visible against a black background (I examined the screen using black, white, yellow, red, green, and blue backgrounds). There are a couple grouped closely together towards the top-center of my screen, another one above that, another one off to the top-right, and then a smattering of what appears to be either stuck pixels or dust off in the top-left of the screen. The misfiring pixels are almost never noticeable during gameplay, unless there happens to be some slow-moving image with a dark section that passes over the trouble spots. And after reading the various reports about the problems people have had in their attempts to get a perfect screen (not to mention the possibility of a perfect screen developing problems in the future), I'm wondering whether I should even bother trying to exchange my PSP. I'm not worried about the store policy--I bought my PSP from Best Buy and also picked up a 2-year Product Replacement Plan (PRP), so I should be set in that area. Actually, considering that the sales associate was so gung ho in trying to get me to buy the PRP, even using peer pressure tactics ("most of the other people are buying the plan"), maybe I should get my money's worth and start the exchange process. Of course, who knows whether the store even has any more PSPs in stock, and if so, whether they are in any better condition. I found it interesting that among the major gaming websites (GameSpot, IGN, 1UP), it seems as though many of the editors have pixel problems with their PSPs as well, but don't seem to be raising a ruckus. I'm currently leaning towards following in their footsteps, since my problems don't really affect my gaming experience--it's just that the nagging thought that my screen isn't perfect is kind of annoying.

Ironically, when I bought my Nintendo DS, I placed screen protectors on the two screens, and the top one developed several bubbles which I couldn't get out. Even though they were sometimes visible during gameplay, I didn't really mind that much and kept my protector on for months, until I bought my PSP and wanted my DS to have a bubble-free screen too so that I could feel a little better about its smaller LCDs. But the difference was that I knew that the bubbles on the DS were something I could fix, while I have no control over the stuck pixels on my PSP--unless I exchange it and hopefully get a problem-free unit.

I made a spontaneous decision this week to buy a PSP. This was particularly surprising in my case because for months now I have been arguing to a couple of my friends that purchasing a PSP wouldn't be a wise decision since I didn't think that the handheld would be viable in the long run. But as I was going through the PSP coverage this week on GameSpot and other web sites, I started to think about using the non-gaming features of the PSP on trips--watching movies and listening to music--and I started to get excited. Since I don't have an iPod (although I nearly bought one several months ago) or a portable DVD player (besides my bulky laptop), the idea of an all-in-one device became more and more appealing to me. Ironically, that appeal was more about having a cool gadget rather than any practical use I might get out of the PSP, because I only make a couple of trips a year where it's inconvenient for me to bring my laptop, and I don't do any commuting on public transportation. So I normally use handheld devices at home or at my girlfriend's house--and it's just as easy for me to use non-handheld systems in those places.

Actually, I think I'm just susceptible to buying portable game systems in general. In the months leading up to the release of the original Game Boy Advance, my level of excitement was the highest that I think it had ever been when it came to purchasing a game system. And as a result, for the first time I picked up a system almost immediately after it launched. Then when the DS was announced, I decided to preorder a system for the first time. Now with my purchase of the PSP, it marks the first time that I've ever stood in line before a store opened so I could get a system.

The actual purchase process went pretty smoothly. I made the decision on Wednesday that I might actually want a PSP after all, so I figured my best chance of getting one was to go to my local Best Buy, which opened early on Thursday at 8:01 a.m for a PSP-only sale. I didn't go to bed until after 4 in the morning (I was watching GameSpot Live's PSP launch coverage), and then I woke up at 6:45, repeatedly asking myself whether I really wanted to spend such a huge amount of money on a system that I might not even end up using that much. I decided I would just go check out the line for curiosity's sake, and I made it over to the store by 7:30. There were about 12 people already waiting. I figured I might as well join them, but as I stood in the semi-line that didn't really have a structure, with a cold snow/rain mix coming down at a good clip, I kept wondering why I was doing this, especially since I really need to save my money. When the doors finally opened, there were about 20 people waiting--the store had 210 PSPs in stock, so there were no worries about running out. I ended up buying Lumines, Darkstalkers Chronicle, and Twisted Metal (there was a special deal if you bought 3 games). I brought everything back to my place and took out the PSP. As I held it in my hand, I was amazed at how sleek and sexy it was. And I was kind of glad that I had such pitiful self-control when it came to impulse buying.

I still haven't even played any of my games. I've only turned on the PSP to do an initial setup and to make sure there were no dead pixels. Since then I've been busy with other things all day, including another trip to Best Buy to pick up an accessory kit--and I subsequently broke down and bought three more games. But now that I'm a PSP owner, I've been thinking about the state of the handheld gaming market from a slightly different perspective. Whereas I previously felt the need to justify my ownership of the DS by finding things wrong with the PSP, I now more fully embrace the notion that the handhelds can be used in a complementary fashion and can serve different needs. And of course, each system faces different challenges in terms of fully realizing its potential.

My purchase of the DS was motivated by its innovative features and the idea that it would provide me with unique gaming experiences. But I'm still waiting to see the games that will prove to me that the features of the DS are more than just a gimmick. Yoshi's Touch and Go is a great game for what it is, but I'd like to see a unique, compelling DS gaming experience that goes beyond the "get the high score" mentality. And I want to see Nintendo do more with its guaranteed sellers (like Mario Kart) besides using the second screen as a map. Even online functionality in a game isn't enough, because on its own it doesn't justify the existence of a DS feature such as having two screens.

Meanwhile, my PSP purchase was all about having an all-in-one multimedia device. The PSP works for me because I'm a gamer--I'm still not convinced that Sony will be successful in persuading non-gamers to buy it. (A segment on my local newscast about the PSP launch reconfirmed in my mind that many people have the perception that gaming is a kiddie pastime. The news anchor talked about how the PSP supposedly was going to take handheld gaming to the next level, and then she ad libbed that everybody had been eagerly waiting for that to occur--except she was only joking about that last part.) But regardless, I'm looking forward to making full use of the PSP's capabilities, including games, music, and video files. I'm not going to buy UMD movies--I rarely buy DVDs--but I'm sure I'll have plenty of video clips of TV shows and so on that I can place on my memory stick. But I am a little bit worried about the type of games that will appear on the PSP. Many gamers, including myself, are excited about being able to play portable games that are close to recreating PS2-type experiences. However, as was pointed out in the PSP Editor Roundtable on 1up.com, the PSP controller limits game design "to a PS1 level of interaction," as Che Chou put it (due to the lack of a second analog stick, or for that matter even a first "true" analog stick). Additionally, publishers need to avoid the danger of simply porting home console titles to the PSP. And one more challenge is going to be avoiding really long loading times. According to one report I read, developers are already complaining about how it takes way too long to get data from the UMD into memory.

So neither handheld is perfect, and each one has obstacles to overcome. But I'm still very excited about the future of both systems, albeit for different reasons. Now if I can just finally squeeze in some time to actually play my PSP...

I was pretty pleased with Nintendo's presence at the Game Developers Conference, from Iwata's keynote speech to the numerous interviews given by Reggie Fils-Aime. To recap the things that I liked, it's been confirmed that the DS is going online, and that the service will be free, which is a big plus (and might provide Microsoft's pay-to-play Xbox Live service with some competition in the future). Additionally, Animal Crossing will be an online killer app for the DS, which is exciting. And the Revolution will have built-in Wi-Fi connectivity, which means that Nintendo fans will no longer need to buy an alternative version of a multiplatform game just to play online. The Revolution will also be backwards-compatible with the GameCube, which is important for two reasons. First, gamers who don't own a GameCube might now have extra motivation to pick up the Revolution so they can play the current-generation games that they missed. Second, Nintendo will receive extra revenue from selling GameCube titles to those new Nintendo owners. Another thing that reassured me was Reggie's clarification that Nintendo is not dismissing the need for third parties, contrary to the apparent mistranslation of one of Satoru Iwata's comments. Finally, one last thing that I enjoyed from Nintendo's showing was the Zelda trailer, even if some people think it's too reminiscent of Lord of the Rings.

However, there were a couple of things that disappointed me. First, I had hoped that Nintendo would announce that the DS would go online within the next month in conjunction with some surprise game that would motivate people to buy the DS as opposed to the PSP, which will debut in less than two weeks. However, it looks as though the DS won't go online until the end of the year. Additionally, it's not clear how many of the big DS games will be online--Animal Crossing and Mario Kart appear to be gimmes, but based on one of Reggie's interviews, it doesn't look as though Metroid Prime: Hunters will have online support, only wireless LAN play. I would have liked to see more online announcements, such as an online Pokemon, as well as an announcement of some notable third-party game with online support, such as Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles. But I guess there's always E3.

Since Nintendo does seem to be getting its act together, I feel more confident in proclaiming that contrary to many people's beliefs, the PSP will not completely dominate the handheld market. Jeff Gerstmann already wrote a journal entry arguing that the portable market can actually support more than one handheld, and I agree with him. Additionally, I think some of the PSP buzz that many game editors have been talking about (particularly over on 1up.com and in EGM ) is a little overstated. For one thing, it's no big secret that Sony is targeting the PSP more to the mainstream consumer instead of just the core gamer. The company is trying to enter the handheld gaming market, the portable MP3 player market, and the portable movie market all in one fell swoop. If Sony's primary concern was to get existing gamers to buy the PSP, then it would have priced the PSP lower than $250 in order to more aggressively compete with Nintendo and to avoid alienating some existing Sony console owners who think the PSP is priced too high. Yes, many game editors tend to think that $250 is a fair deal for the PSP, but that's because gaming is so much of a passion for those people that they chose it as a profession. So although many gamers--including myself--are excited about the PSP, I'm sure that some of them will hold off on buying it until a future price drop or an improved value pack.

That raises the question of whether the mainstream consumer who is more interested in a portable MP3 or movie player will buy the PSP. Again, many game editors seem to think so, but I think that ignores the fact that there is still somewhat of a bias against gaming. Earlier this year, my local news station ran a story about NFL players competing in Madden, and the reporter referred to it as "a kid's game." I know, I know, Sony is targeting the hip young adults who can see past such statements. You might have seen the Internet ads stating that "even your mom has an iPod," trying to make the PSP seem like the cool gadget for 2005. The only problem is that I'm not sure how effective Sony will be in overcoming non-gamers' preconceived biases that gaming is for kids, and unless the company does that, there's no way the mainstream consumer will shell out $250 for a device that is an inferior MP3 player to the iPod, not to mention the extra money to get a larger-capacity memory stick or the cost of buying a movie on UMD (as opposed to being able to use one of their existing DVDs in a portable DVD player).

To illustrate my point, I'm a graduate student in a computer architecture research group. We try to come up with innovations that can be used in future hardware designs such as Cell. The students in my group are mainly in their mid-to-late twenties, and reasonably tech-oriented, so we fall into the demographic that Sony is targeting. However, I feel pretty confident in saying that I am the only person in my group who would even consider buying a PSP. There are a couple of people who might play a video game every now and then, but they wouldn't pay to buy a device that is first and foremost a gaming machine. And in fact, some of the people in my group, including one of my pretty good friends, kind of look down on the whole notion of adults playing games. My friend rolls his eyes every time he sees me pull out my GBA. There's actually an annual computer architecture conference that my group normally attends, which is held in a different location every year. It typically includes some recreational trip to see the sights, but I don't like to pull out my GBA on those trips, because I know I'll be the only one. And this is at a conference filled with people from academia and industry who are fully aware that the hardware they're designing will frequently be used for gaming purposes. So I'm not convinced that Sony will be able to attract many people who aren't already gamers with the marketing angle that the PSP is cooler than the iPod.

And even if Sony is successful, I get the feeling that non-gamers who buy the PSP probably won't buy very many games, especially at $40-$50 a pop. They'll more likely pick up a memory stick and use that to hold MP3s and video clips, and maybe buy a game or UMD once in a blue moon. If that turns out to be the case, then Sony won't be making very much profit from them.

Finally, I think that Sony is making a mistake by having so many of the big-name PSP games come out so early in the year. Maybe I just haven't done enough research on this subject, and it's also possible that Sony and other publishers have some surprises up their sleeves, but it seems that all of the hot titles--Metal Gear Acid, Gran Turismo 4...even Grand Theft Auto--are all coming out within the first couple of months after the PSP launch. This is problematic for two reasons. First, if too many games are released around the same time, then many of them will not sell particularly well. That could motivate publishers to start targeting other platforms, such as the DS. A second problem is that the PSP will have a scarcity of huge titles during the holiday season. Although I'm not a fan of the fact that the DS has so few titles months after its launch (it's so bad that I'm planning to buy Yoshi's Touch & Go next week, just to pick up a second DS game--even though I almost never buy a newly released game unless it's received fantastic reviews or appeals to me in some other way), Nintendo is spacing out its hits, and will have some big releases towards the end of the year. Combined with the fact that the DS is going online in that time frame, and the possibility of some details being released this year (E3, perhaps?) about the new Game Boy, all of the handheld buzz will probably be shifting to Nintendo during the crucial holiday season, which would be a serious deterrent to the PSP's success.

Hmm...this is the third straight journal entry in which I've criticized Sony. Perhaps my Nintendo fanboyism is getting the better of me.

I have newfound respect for all of the GameSpot members who update their journals on a regular basis. I've meant to update my journal many times over the last few months, but I just haven't gotten around to it.

However, the time between this entry and the last one has allowed some of my questions about Sony to be cleared up. For one thing, once Sony's fiscal year ends on March 31, the company will be able to increase its production of PSPs. I do wonder whether there was some unmentioned cost associated with this news--e.g. higher priced contracts with external vendors as opposed to producing most components internally--but regardless, the important thing is that PSPs will eventually be available after a supply shortage at launch time in the U.S.

I had originally intended to use this entry to talk about how I thought the Cell processor would be a bad idea for a video game console, and how it appeared that Sony was more interested in providing a complete entertainment system (with TiVo-like capabilities and so on) rather than a dedicated gaming machine. And it's still possible that Sony might go that route. But my criticism was going to be based on the information I had about Cell at the time--that it would be a tiled processor. Since then, more information about Cell has been unveiled, and I've come to realize that I am a big fan of many of the design choices for Cell. Of course, I'm probably a bit biased since it shares many similarities with my research group's main project, SCALE. In fact, a recent article about Cell (from an actual technical publication, instead of the mainstream press) drew the same comparison--although my adviser took issue with the classification of Cell as a "vector machine" (and he should know, as he has an extensive background in the subject). In any case, the PlayStation 3 should be an impressive gaming machine, and I'm looking forward to see what developers will be able to accomplish with it--although I will add the qualification that it's imperative for Sony and IBM to provide a clean programming model and tools that are easy to use.

But in the meantime, there is a handheld war that has already been started in Japan and is about to be waged on this continent. Many editors of multiplatform publications and websites seem to think that the PSP is eventually going to dominate the market. And given the pitiful software library of the DS, several months after launch, it's hard to blame them. I'm especially disappointed in the DS lineup thus far because this is the only system that I've ever preordered. However, there are several reasons why I think that the PSP will not be as overwhelmingly successful as many people believe. But because my opinions are predicated on Nintendo actually delivering on some of its rumored plans, I will wait until Satoru Iwata delivers his keynote speech at the Game Developers Conference tomorrow before I stick my foot in my mouth.

That question should probably be taken with a grain of salt coming from me, since I am somewhat of a Nintendo fanboy. Don't get me wrong, I think that competition in the gaming industry is a good thing for consumers. But I have a soft spot in my heart for Nintendo, and I would like to see them regain the #1 spot in the home console market. Wishful thinking, I know.

But in spite of my bias, I do think it is fair to question whether Sony is pursuing the right strategy by waging a war on multiple fronts. Note that I didn't write "two" fronts--this goes beyond simply trying to stay #1 in the home console market while also expanding into the portable gaming market. Sony ultimately wants to be the one-stop entertainment source for consumers, replacing iPods, portable DVD players, TiVos, DVD recorders, and so on. And while it's understandable that Sony wants to get a stranglehold on the home entertainment market, more and more over the last couple of months I find myself wondering whether the company is setting itself up for disaster.

Because the Japanese launch of the PSP is only a few days away, I'm going to focus on that device in this journal entry and save my thoughts on the PS3 for the future. I should probably start by saying that I think the PSP looks very cool. The DS has always gotten me more excited about its potential versus the PSP (and it still does now that I own one), but I would love to pick up a PSP at some point. But ultimately it doesn't matter which system is "better" or which handheld has a superior lineup of games--the simple fact is that unless Sony pulls a rabbit out of its hat, the PSP will be doomed to a dismal second in the portable wars.

When Sony first announced the PSP price in Japan, it looked like a bold move designed to take the fight directly to Nintendo. A couple of days later, Ken Kutaragi gave himself a pat on the back for investing in internal fabrication labs for the CPUs in Sony's systems. One thing that struck me at the time was that the article stated that the annual manufacturing rate of the PSP was 3 million units. As it turned out, Sony had essentially stated the same thing at E3, but at the time it sounded like a sales goal, not a manufacturing limit. As a basis for comparison, I believe Nintendo sold over 50 million Game Boy Advance and Advance SP systems in the span of 3 years (and the SP is still going strong).

That immediately set off warning bells in my head, especially as Internet reports began to surface that Sony would be taking a loss on each PSP. Losing money on each unit to stimulate demand and gain a foothold when you're entering a market is nothing new--Microsoft successfully did that with the Xbox. But Microsoft was also able to meet the demand. Unfortunately for Sony, it's looking at major supply shortages for the foreseeable future. And in the meantime, the Nintendo DS is selling like hotcakes.

The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Sony's credit rating was recently downgraded, making this a very bad time to be losing money trying to launch a system when you won't be able to come close to satisfying the demand or even make a significant dent in your competitor's installed base. Yes, I know, the PSP is theoretically not competing with the Game Boy Advance. But it is competing with the DS, no matter what the companies have said in the past, and it looks like the DS will be the clearcut winner over the next several months. Throw in the fact that Sony has a limited amount of time to get a foothold in the market--it's probably a safe bet that Nintendo will unveil a new portable at E3 in 2006, at which point Sony will have sold at most 6 million PSPs unless it steps up its manufacturing capacity in its second year--and this is looking like a recipe for disaster.

And I haven't even gotten started on Sony's attempt to make the PSP an all-in-one machine. While I think that there will be a coolness factor for consumers associated with being able to play games, listen to music, and watch movies all on one device, I wonder how well it will work in practice. Would you rather carry around a bunch of 32MB Memory Sticks, each with half an hour worth of music, or have a single 40GB iPod? And how many of the "tech geeks" that Sony is targeting actually buy a lot of movies? If they're like me, they subscribe to Netflix; even if that's not the case, who wants to buy the same movie on both DVD and UMD? My guess is that the average PSP owner will buy at most a few movies, so that sector of Sony's business won't be too profitable. And if I'm wrong, then Sony still has a problem: if you're a game publisher, and you're already competing with other game companies to try to get a few million PSP owners to buy your game, you definitely don't want to have to compete with Hollywood movies for the PSP as well. If that was the case, I'd rather just go make a game for the DS.

Well, that was a mouthful for my first journal entry. Who knows--maybe Sony will iron out all of its kinks and make the PSP wildly successful. While that's not my first preference, I definitely don't object to the existence of the PSP, because it keeps Nintendo from being complacent in the portable arena. But it would be ironic if the attempt to unseat Nintendo from the handheld throne causes Sony to overcommit its resources and leads to the company losing its top spot in the home console market when the next-generation systems come out. I'll have more to say later about the role I think the PS3 could play in that downward spiral.