Hello again friendly Gamespotians. A few days ago, I posted the first in my two part series of my Fearless Predictions. As promised, I’m now here to bring you the second set of my predictions for the next five months. Give me a moment to pull out my Magic Eight Ball and we’ll be ready to get underway. First, let me say a quick word of thanks to everyone who took the time to leave comments and feedback on part 1. I have tried to make sure that I replied to everyone who took a few moments out of their busy day to read and respond. Thanks again. And now, once again, I have one final order of business. Spineless Disclaimer: As the more astute reader may have noticed, the word I used before the word “predictions” above was “fearless”. It wasn’t “popular” or even “accurate”. The word was fearless. This means that if you disagree with these predictions, well, I’d love to hear your reasoning but do try and keep it civil. I have a job and a girlfriend already, which means I’ve already heard all the many, many ways that I can be called an idiot that mankind has invented over the years. Okay then; we’re now good to go! There will be a resurgence in PC gaming in the next 12 months. PC Gamers have had it rough lately. They’ve been treated in a lot of ways like second cla.ss citizens when it comes to the discussion of which gaming platform is the best to have. With the release of the PS3, Xbox360 and the Wii, PC gaming has flown largely under the radar. And if that wasn’t enough, they’ve had to put up with innumerable badly researched articles predicting the demise of PC gaming in various magazine publications. This is odd, because as numerous friends and regular blog readers of mine will no doubt be quick to point out, a high-end, up to date PC will almost always be more powerful than the latest console on the market, because you can constantly update a PC whereas consoles only get updated every few years or so. But the PC’s greatest strength has also been its Achilles Heel, with many gamers leaving the platform for ones that don’t need constant updating attention. Ironically, PC’s fortunes will improve largely because of Microsoft’s Xbox 360. As many news articles on Gamespot have noted, game development for the 360 and for the PC is remarkably similar, making porting between the two platforms quite easy. Part of the reason why the PC gaming fell on hard times in the recent past (in addition to cost) was because in a world where cash is king, the mass market usually gets games developed for it first. Due to the simplicity of use (put the game in and start playing) consoles have been the mass market for years. Now, however, with the ease with which games can be ported between the 360 and the PC, the latter will reap huge benefits as game after game is developed simultaneously for both systems. With this being the case, the PC version has a couple of quick and obvious advantages. First, A high-end completely updated PC will allow for better graphics, framerate, etc. than the 360 version. And second, certain PC games will be rich with user created mods allowing for additional value that consoles will not have access to. So put these two things together, more games plus some advantages to playing the same game on a PC versus a console, and you have a revitalized value proposition to push the PC back into the conversation for gamers who have cash to spend who are looking to optimize their experiences. The race for gaming supremacy between the three major consoles, Wii, 360 and PS3, will tighten considerably in the next 12 months. People who think that the current trends between these three consoles will continue unchanged over the next twelve months are deluding themselves. Both the Wii and the 360 have challenges on the horizon that will slow them down, whereas the PS3 has some long awaited good news coming that will speed it up a bit. I will now choose my words carefully and put on my special asbestos fiber, flame retardant, forum warrior action suit. The Wii’s biggest hurdle will be exactly what a Sega Exec mentioned recently. The system’s graphics, which look good enough right now, are going to start looking more and more dated as time passes. While it will still have value to offer that differentiates it from the other systems, sales for it will likely peak within the next couple of months and then start leveling off as some of the games specially prepared for the more cutting edge hardware start rolling out and gamers start comparing how the Wii games look in comparison. The gap graphics wise between this plucky little machine and its main competitors will only increase with time. Note that I am not saying that the Wii won’t remain a viable industry player, but I highly expect that its current sales lead over the other systems will decrease significantly or possibly vanish entirely. As I said, it has peaked early because now is the time when the difference in hardware capabilities looks the smallest that it will ever look. The 360 will similarly start to experience some hurdles. The biggest challenge on its immediate horizon is that it won’t be able to use the “PS3 has no games” argument for much longer. The first few AAA titles for the PS3 will finally start trickling out in the next few months as games like Heavenly Sword and Lair hit the shelves. On the other flank, it will also feel pressures from the PC as so many of its games will be available for simultaneous release from that end. Fortunately for 360 owners, the system seems well positioned to meet these challenges as its fall lineup of games is one of the best I’ve seen in years. But it certainly won’t have the easy ride it had in its first year, where it was the only choice for gamers who wanted to get a jump start on the Next Generation of gaming. From here forward, it will have to work much harder to keep momentum and fight off challengers that just didn’t exist for its first twelve months of product life. And lastly we get to the PS3. The PS3 will finally start hearing some good news. First and foremost of course is that its going to be finally getting some of its exclusives and top shelf games coming. Anyone who is interested in seeing a lineup of them can go browse through the System Wars forums. I’m sure that you’ll find a dozen threads listing (with screen shots) the upcoming major titles for this system. I’m not here to market any individual system, so I’ll simply state that the two main things that are going to get the ball rolling for the PS3 are the aforementioned games that are coming and my next prediction. Bluray will eventually win the format war. Please note the word “eventually”. I don’t expect the situation between Bluray and HD-DVD to be resolved overnight, but I do expect that when the dust finally settles, Bluray will emerge as the dominant player in the industry. Whether or not we’ll end up with a situation similar to Cable/DSL where HD-DVD remains a viable presence in the marketplace or vanishes entirely ala Beta-Max remains to be seen. Many people when arguing for HD-DVD’s eventual victory inevitably point to the last time we had a format war over this sort of media, wherein the technologically inferior VHS ended up ousting the Sony preferred format Beta-Max. While it is tempting to jump to this comparison, because it is the most natural one to point at, I believe that the circumstances are vastly different this time around. For starters, the marketplace is different. Back when VHS was stomping all over Beta-Max, the concept of people being able to actually buy movies and watch them in the privacy of their own home whenever they chose was a relatively new one. The market was brand new, and frankly, consumers were not as educated as they are now. We are decades past that point, and pretty much everyone has at the very least a third rate DVD player in their home now. Then of course there are the movie studios, the ultimate driving force in this little fracas. When last I looked (and I have not followed this that closely so my information may be dated) of all the major movie studios only one, Universal, is exclusive to HD-DVD. Two others support both formats, and the rest of them support Bluray exclusively. Consider for a moment that the studios have to invest in all new equipment to support Bluray and do not have do make such an investment for HD-DVD, and we get a pretty clear indication of which format the studios are pushing for. I have a theory as to why this is as well. How many people out there have ever bought the “special edition” of something before? I must reluctantly call anyone who doesn’t have their hand raised right now a liar. We’ve all bought a special edition of something at some time or another. When we have a movie or a game that we really, really love or expect to love, we want all the extra bells and whistles to go along with it. I still have my ridiculous little Guy Fauwkes mask that came with my special edition of “V for Vendetta” just like I have my little volleyball from the special edition of “Bully”. I have no idea what I am going to do with either one, and I’ve never used either, but I own both. And guess what? Movie studios, just like game companies, make more money when they sell the special edition of anything. And that is why I think most of the movie studios are pushing Blu-ray disks. They have a ton more space on those disks (something like 50 gigs for a double sided Bluray vs 30 for a double-sided HD-DVD) to put all the extra junk that makes the extra money. Both the PS3 and the Xbox360 will continue to lose exclusives to each other. This one is a bit of a no-brainer. It costs a lot of money to make games. It doesn’t take that much extra to create ports of them to other systems. Ports to other systems add millions of potential purchasers of a particular game. Millions of extra purchasers equal a lot more money in game developers’ pockets. More money in game developer pockets equates to happier corporate overlords. One of the major stories over the last year was when game after game started going non-exclusive. At first, it was mainly the PS3 losing its titles one by one to the 360. Then the 360 started losing some of its titles in the other direction. Now, it is big news when 3rd party developers actually keep any games exclusive. Anyone who has seen the movie “Pirates of Silicon Valley” can see the direction that the gaming industry is going. At one point in the movie a young Bill Gates is visiting this computer manufacturer and the hardware guy tries strong-arming Bill, who then coldly replies something to the effect of “your computer is nothing more than just a box with blinking lights without my software.” Power in the industry is swinging back to the game developers. In the last generation of gaming, Sony was the 800 lb gorilla. It was such a dominant industry force that it could afford to push around the game developers because they needed Sony more than Sony needed them. Until the Xbox’s extremely late arrival on the scene, Sony had no real competition. (Sorry Nintendo fans, but the Gamecube just wasn’t a big enough presence to frighten Sony in the last generation.) This time around, with multiple strong systems for gamers to choose from, the game developers are the ones in the driving seat. They know it, and Sony is paying for its cavalier treatment of the developers last time around. I have little doubt in my mind that at least a couple of the early exclusive losses were the game developers firing a shot across Sony’s proverbial bow. It was a message they were sending. “Things are going to be a bit different this time around.” The Wii is in a bit of a unique presence here. Many of the games for the PS3 and the 360, particular as time continues to pass, will not be portable to the Wii. The Wii’s success will hinge entirely upon its ability to capitalize and expand on its unique gameplay/control scheme. Kobe Bryant will be in the NBA Finals next year. Those of you who aren’t interested in basketball can skip the rest of this blog. I just thought I’d throw a curve ball at you folks and toss out a non-gaming prediction. And I thought this was an interesting one because in my lifetime I’ve rarely seen anyone be as simultaneously loved and hated as this man. The very fact that he generates so much controversy makes him interesting to write about. What makes him so fascinating is his astonishing combination of unequaled talent, drive and determination and his completely single-minded selfishness and desire to win. I could do an entire blog on what makes this very complex personality tick, and half of the basketball fans who replied to me would be ripping me and half would be loving me, depending on what approach to writing about this man I chose to take. This is, by far, the longest shot of my 10 predictions. This is the Hail Mary pass of predictions. Pick an analogy and it will likely fit. Kobe hasn’t been out of the first round of the playoffs since the Lakers organization traded Shaq for about forty cents on the dollar and then proceeded to trade half of those forty cents (Caron Butler) for a nickel when they swapped him for Kwame freaking Brown. Here’s the thing though, I never said that Kobe would be in the NBA Finals next year with the Lakers. Yes, the Lakers have said that they aren’t trading Kobe. That is naïve. It ignores the power that NBA superstars have to force trades when they want them. It also ignores Kobe’s singular stubbornness. Not since Michael Jordan has the NBA had a player with the combination of talent, ego, and willpower as Kobe Bryant brings to the table.
One way or another, Kobe will force a trade. And the Lakers will trade him to an Eastern Conference team because they don’t want him in the same conference. If Lebron James and the poo poo platter of supporting parts and bad coaching he has around him on the Cavs can make it to the NBA finals in the Eastern Conference, expect Kobe and the Bulls to make it there next year.
And that’s it for my ten fearless predictions. I hope that you all enjoyed reading them as much as I enjoyed making them. If you disagree with what you’ve read here, remember that I can’t really tell the future any better than anyone else. I can only observe, and make predictions based on how I interpret what I observe. As always, I welcome comments and/or criticisms.