Personally, I'm pulling for Bioshock as a dark horse, but in reality, I see Game of the Year going to Crysis or Super Mario Galaxy.

I think your prediction of Halo 3 as "Who Will Win" is incredibly off; while the reviewers did rate it highly, they recognize exactly the problems you had with it. Its status as a sequel, as well as its lack of 'novel' changes, definitely hurt it in a quest for Game of the Year.

This is speaking from a Gamespot perspective. Other establishments, such as Time Magazine, are not geared so heavily into the gaming community and, thus, would fail to recognize such things, instead falling into the hype surrounding the game, as well as and most importantly: its ridiculous sales. In such a mind, sales so high as Halo 3's represent universal gamer approval, which would indicate Game of the Year. Gamespot, however, doesn't fall for such things, or so I believe. Halo 3 is a good game, even a great game, but it's not a Game of the Year.

So my picks are as follows:

Should Win: Crysis or SMG

Will Win: Crysis or SMG

I Wish Would Win: Bioshock

Dark Horse That Could Win: COD4

Won't Win: Halo 3