To get an understanding of where I am going with this, you might want to watch the following video.

Here:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9214419766443021135&q=dreamcast

or here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGf2-fK1B_w&search=dreamcast

I will make reference to facts in the above video.  I hope to make a clear enough point of those facts that if you do not wish to sit through the video you don't have to.  (Although if you were a fan of the Sega Dreamcast, I think it has excellent nostalgia appeal.)

So what I am getting at here is that Sega released an excellent product in the Dreamcast.  The hardware was at the top of it's class for that time and would hold it's position for more than a year.  It had a glut of fantastic games that no other system at the time could match.  There were no less than two killer apps on launch day (Soul Calibur & NFL 2K) and the latest offering of a beloved franchise in Sonic Adventure.

Being released on 9/9/99 for $199 and already 300,000 pre-orders (A record at the time that surpassed the previous record holder Playstation by no less then 200,000.) in place.  It goes on to sale 372,000 systems in the first week.

Within the next couple of weeks the system is sold out on shelves and retailers are asking for more systems because customers are craving this brand new machine.  Sega at the time is unable to keep up with demand.

Sony comes out within short order and announces the PS2.  Even with the PS2 being more then a year out, they appear to be able to convince most current Playstation owners to hold off on a Dreamcast purchase and wait for the PS2.

The Dreamcast had been launched in Japan before it's US debut but had manufacturing problems and was unable to get enough systems into market which left games going home empty handed on day one and eventually with the word of the PS2's future launch was unable to get any type of real foothold in Japan. 

Then in late 2000 Sony released their new PS2.  It was an upgrade over the Dreamcast and at the time was released by a company who seemed to give the video game buying public more faith in the support of the system.

With the release of the PS2, sales of the Dreamcast came to an almost standstill and as most of us know it lead to the PS2 selling 10's of millions of systems.  With the Dreamcast unable to sale more than 5 million systems worldwide, production of the system was brought to an end and Sega as a hardware manufacture came to a close after roughly two decades.

Now I am not saying that Microsoft will be out of the gaming business because Sony will do so well with the PS3, but I think there are a few similarities between the two.

First of all  the 360 was released in November and appears to have come out a year ahead of the PS3.  As with the Dreamcast, Microsoft is in short supply of the 360.  In part because it is a hot item but mainly because they are having manufacturing issues.  There is also the fact that they appear at the moment to be unable to get any type of foothold in the Japanese market, similar to Sega's issues with the Dreamcast. 

The 360 is now going into it's 5th month of release and possibly still has not filled all of the pre-orders initially placed for it and without a doubt has not filled all pre-orders that were created for the system after launch day when those that wanted one realized they were going to have to get in line down the road just to get their excited little hands on one.

A lot of gamers have known for a year now that PS3 is coming.  Next month is E3 and unless Sony is again going to push the launch of the PS3 back you have to believe that they are going to have a significant number of games on the floor to play and if the time difference between the two systems is any indication.  You should be able to tell that the PS3 is able to perform (technologically) better than the 360.

So is it possible that like with the Dreamcast & PS2 situation, you will find a number of those that were planning on picking up the 360 now holding off for the PS3?  Could it be that even with a number of available systems on the shelf at Christmas and a limited supply of PS3's.  Consumers will wait an buy the PS3 later causing the 360 to never make the significant market share that Sony would at that point?

On a side note.  Is it possible I have absolutely no idea what I am talking about?  Naaahhhhh.  OK, maybe.  But I believe that it is a debatable topic and is worth some consideration.  Thanks.