Zurahn-Rybka: Pre-Game 4
by yodariquo on Comments
I thought I'd post one blog in here before the final game of the match. I've been evaluating numerous Sicilian lines resulting from 1. Nc3 c5 and have arrived at some interesting results. One is expecting, as it played in the English, the early development of a bishop to a cental position (in this case, Bc4). If this happens, I see about 4-5 likely lines through about 15-20 moves, one (perhaps the best by both players and even most likely to occur) results in a draw, which I'll post here: 1. Nc3 c5 2. Nf3 d6 3. e4 Nf6 (or alternatively playing e4 first, then Nf6) 4. Bc4 Nc6 5. O-O g6 6. d4 cxd4 7. Nxd4 Nxd4 8. Qxd4 Bg7 9. Be3 O-O 10. Qd1 Ng4 11. Bd4 e5 12. Be3 Qh4 13. h3 Nxe3 14. fxe3 Bxh3 15. gxh3 Qg3+ 16. Kh1 Qxh3+ 17. Kg1 Qg3+ 18. Kh1 Qh3+ 19. Kg1 Qg3+ 20. Kh1 Qh3+ 1/2-1/2 Everything is forced after 11...e5. Actually, even e5 is forced, so if Rybka is so inclined and chooses 11. Bd4 (Unforced. There are reasonable alternatives) then that's it, the game is drawn in 11 moves. Better are probably 11. Bf4 or Bg5, however, if Rybka plays Bd3 earlier, it would seem it is ill inclined to do so. In fact, if I am correct--which I believe I am--in expecting the line 1. Nc3 c5 2. Nf3 d6 3. e4 Nf6 4. Bc4 Nc6 5. O-O, d4 is the clear best continuation, which makes moves 6 to 8 forced. Basically, if this sequence occurs: 9. Be3 O-O 10. Qd1, I have a draw, which I will take despite it meaning losing overall. However, the Queen has a couple fine alternatives to d1 on move 10 and the Bishop could just as well end up on g5 on move 9 (a line I also frustratingly analyzed). I initially evaluated 7...Bg7 instead of 7...Nxd4 because it is the more common and best play in the pattern of this d4 exchange in the Sicilian; however the unique position of the game proved to have several complications that would make everything much harder for me, and really worse overall, which little wiggle room. The both fortunate and unfortunate thing is that the exchanges lead to greater drawing chances. Despite being tempted to switch to the Caro-Kann given my struggle to find a line in which I feel I have legitimate winning chances, I will stick to my instincts and go with the opening (hopefully, Rybka does need to comply with the first few moves) in which I am most experienced. Call it cautious optimism that I can pull out a draw. Just for the sake of it, I give 40% drawing chances, 10% winning, 50% losing. That's better than I would have given myself coming in.