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Analyst: Guitar Hero series to sell 7.5M in '07, two expansions coming

Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter estimates the runaway hit of a rhythm game will put $550 million in Activision's coffers this fiscal year.

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When Activision acquired RedOctane in 2006, many wondered if the Guitar Hero publisher's near-$100 million price tag was exorbitant. Those doubts were amplified when the game's developer, Harmonix, was itself purchased by Viacom subdivision MTV Games--a union that would lead to the birth of critical hit Rock Band.

However, as repeated NPD reports have shown, Activision has enjoyed a massive return on its investment in the Guitar Hero franchise. How big, exactly? Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter thinks he has an idea. Following Activision's upward revision of its earning estimates this morning, Pachter issued a note in which he put a figure on the Guitar Hero franchise's sales for the publisher's current fiscal year, which ends March 31, 2008.

"We believe that this year's Guitar Hero sales reflect around 6 million units of bundles and 1.5 million units of disc-only sales, comprising around $550 million in total sales," said Pachter in a note. The figure includes all games in the series, including the recently released Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (PC, Wii, Macintosh, Xbox 360, PlayStation 2, and PlayStation 3).

Pachter went on to predict that the Guitar Hero juggernaut will be only slightly slowed during Activision's 2009 fiscal year. By then, the company will likely have started selling wireless Guitar Hero controllers a la carte.

"Our forecast presumes that year-over-year total unit sales will decline from 7.5 million to 6.3 million," surmised the analyst. "In order to deliver $410 million in sales next year, the company must sell approximately 3 million units of disc-only (around $145 million), plus 3.3 million units of bundles. Given our expectations for significantly higher download revenue and two expansion discs, we think these figures are easily achievable." (Emphasis added.) Pachter did not venture a guess as to what said expansions would be.

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The_Rick_14

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I also hope these expansions are cheaper than Rock the 80s since that few of songs for that price was horrible.

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playa42018

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Guitar Hero is gonna become like DDR, where theres gonna be like 10+ versions with all confusingly similar names with little to zero gameplay differences.

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liam72

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Hum... real metal. Yeah, they should actually make a gh "metal" expansion. But i don't think they should actually concentrate on what you call real metal (no list belongs to the name "real metal" if it doesnt have Black Sabbath in it). Rock is a more vast music style with many different applications of the same structure and sound (I know, Yes and Simple Plan do NOT have the same structure and sound, but theyre both rock lol). Metal is much less vast because it's younger and a little less popular (I don't mean it's less interesting). Oh and expansion discs is a very good idea since i dont have internet on my console and Rock Band's expansion songs have to be downloaded.

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getbeats

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there was talk of an all aerosmith expansion a little while ago. could one of them be that?

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Watch_Me_Xplode

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Hope these expansions are better than Rock the 80s. Rock the 80s was decent, but they can definitely do a lot better.

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Brmarlin

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I'd like to see a punk themed expansion, to be honest. The genre is decidedly underrepresented in the games and plagued with the worst covers. Although a surf themed expansion would also pwn.

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Jedilink109

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Now I know that there's plenty of metal on the GH games already, give me some friggin METAL! REAL METAL!!!!!! Not this new crap. That new junk isn't metal, it's more like alterna-nu-metal or something. Metal Church, Megadeth, Metallica, Lion's Share, Iced Earth, Thy Majestie, ROB ROCK (PLEASE), Sonata Arctica, Testament, Deliverance. I could go on and on. I want to see a game with metal in it that is REAL METAL. Not this new crap. *barf* Although I DO highly enjoy the games, so I'm not saying they're bad, I just want a full metal version. :) That'd be brutal. :D

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killjoi

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Guitar Hero 3 seems fun if you enjoyed 2, but Rock Band has better songs.

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ctg867

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Anybody surprised on GH3 selling crap loads? It's on every major system, it's got the brand recognition, the advertising, and it came out before Rock Band. Plus it was hella fun. I think it'll outsell Rock Band for sure, and that's all great news for Activision. If they get their **** together on some of these games, they could very well take the number one spot for third party revenue. Wait, forgot about Madden. Okay, well for every month that's not August anyway.

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link631

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ok im getting GH3 at Christmas

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Agreb91

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Whoa, lots of money for the folks at Activision to roll around in.

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mattcake

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Everyone cover your nipples, Activision are coming and they are in a milking mood :o Having said that, I'd rather a proper expansion than DLC - no doubt work out as far better value :)

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xblane

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Curious as to why it takes so long for the wireless guitar controllers to be sold separately. I know that I would pick one up if they were available when I get the game.

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b11051973

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I would say they will do expansion discs for 2 reasons. Retailers don't want everything to go DLC. They will get pissed if they can't sell these expansion packs to to DLC. If the retailers get pissed, they will quit selling these HUGE bundles that take up so much space. Also, a lot of people do have broadband, but not all. Expansion discs will give people without broadband an opportunity to buy songs. I'm sure I'll buy every expansion disc for Guitar Hero and Rock Band games.

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Diablo2343

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I wounder how much these disc would be and what are on them? Considering the cost of DL content, for production/shipping of the disc they might charge another $60 for them!? Would rather have the option of paying .99 a song.

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Simba_Dude

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just don't turn into DDR where you release 2-4 different versions of the game every year

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SaintSadistic

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Well I guess there my goes my support for Guitar Hero, if they're issuing expansion discs instead of focusing on using the material for DLC.

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doomsoth

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"nice. Expansion for GH3. But why not downloads..." Many people have disliked the price for the downloads. "I hope the expansion packs have songs that are recent or no older than 10 years" IMO, the majority of the best songs ever made were before 1997.

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Armand1880

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For the Wii...give us a bundle of GH1 and 2...please!!!

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Zerosumgame

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Analysts will be scrambling madly to try to keep their job next year, the demise of the market can now have a taste of their own medicine.

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crunchb3rry

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One of the expansions might be that hinted "Aerosmith only" version the band leaked, when everybody thought they meant Guitar Hero IV would only be Aerosmith songs, given the band's Boston roots and the tendency for bonus tracks to be Boston area bands. If I had to guess, I'd speculate that the other expansion could be an "unplugged" setlist. For some acoustic action.

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gifteddie

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I hope the expansion packs have songs that are recent or no older than 10 years

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icarus212001

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I'd rather have a hard copy of the expansions rather than downloadable versions so that way its easier to keep track of and it relieves HD space.

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Dunnie91

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As long as the expansions aren't songs off Guitar Hero 1 and 2...such a waste of Microsoft Points. *shakes head*

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nyoroism

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Two? Hm. In an interview they said they'd try to get one main game and one spinoff a year. More is good, but you don't want to flood the market.

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KoRnbizkitpie

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EXPANSIONS?....NICE!!!

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jmartinez1983

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I dunno about these predictions. The Guitar Hero franchise has never had competition like it has now from Rock Band. At this point I know I am more inclined to get Rock Band than Guitar Hero, mostly because of the superior DLC selection and pricing model.

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InfinityTomorro

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2 expansions? nice. What's it gonna be Guitar Hero Rocks the 60's and 70's?

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potterpipi

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nice. Expansion for GH3. But why not downloads...

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