Here's my theory: have you ever heard people say "I have a 360 (or a PS3), and the Wii is my 2nd console"? I hear this a lot, actually. But what I don't hear much is "I have a 360, and the PS3 is my 2nd console".
Why is this?
Well, if you look at what the Wii has to offer, be it the unique control scheme, the exclusive titles, or the lower price, you can understand that many avid gamers have a Wii.
Last gen, the Gamecube had little to offer gamers in terms of unique gameplay. Sure, they had the regular Nintendo exclusives, but that was pretty much it (not to mention that people just didn't accept Mario Sunshine or Wind Waker like they have accepted Galaxy and Twilight Princess).
I mean, why would people buy a Gamecube when the PS2 has more exclusives and a similar package to that of the Gamecube? Both had good graphics, both had a similar price point, and both had a similar controller. That hurt the sales numbers for Nintendo last gen, and the lack of a unique experience was ultimately the reason why it didn't succeed as well as the PS2.
I think that if the Xbox 360 didn't exist (or the PS3), and there were just Nintendo and one other company, sales would be roughly equal for the two companies.
I mean, Nintendo has just under 50% of the market right now (it will be 50% in a few months, if everything goes the way it has so far), so if people weren't split between the PS3 and the Xbox 360, I'd venture to say that most "hardcore" gamers would have one of each console, making the sales roughly the same.
Also, the fact that multiplatform releases (meaning you can buy the game on the Xbox, PS3, or Wii) often see the best sales figures from the "version" that gets the best rating when compared to other consoles is also a sign that people only buy one version of the game. That could explain why a lot of 3rd party multiplatform games have sold better on the 360 than they have on the Wii (please note that I'm not hating on the Wii, it's just that they often have "achievements", downloadable content, and better graphics on the 360 version).
I think, by that logic, it shows that "hardcores" make up a good majority of the Wii's sales figures. Of course, this is just my speculation, so don't take it too literally. But I think this makes a lot of sense, when you really think about it.
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