Theory About Big Game Releases New Wii?

[QUOTE="Madmangamer364"]

I still think you might be over-complicating the matter here. Just take a look at how Nintendo has released its Wii games this gen, and this is not surprising. Super Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3 were released almost neck-to-neck with each other, much like Galaxy 2 and Other M will be. Futhermore, Super Smash Bros. Brawl was also slated to come out around the end of 2007, but got pushed back to the first quarter of 2008. Even with that delay, it wasn't alone, though, as Mario Kart Wii and Wii Fit shortly followed.

I think the most logical explanation for this would be that we're seeing the lineup of games like this because this is the cycle Nintendo has set itself up for this gen, not because it's trying to move on to the next system at the moment. One can make the argument that Nintendo should have done a better job at spreading out its high profile titles this gen, but hey, it has worked for the most part. :P

Sepewrath

I'm not saying I should be the one to make such an argument, lol. If there is one thing that anyone can say about how Nintendo has managed its key titles this gen, it would probably have something to do with the first half of last year and the Wii not having that new, attention-grabbing title until Wii Sports Resort launched. To counter that, though, was the fact that Wii Fit was the best selling game during that time on ALL consoles, which goes in line to the point you've made.

I feel as though part of the reason Nintendo did what it has done was because they didn't know how successful the Wii would be. Had Nintendo been convinced that the Wii would have seen the record-breaking sales it has gotten beforehand, I think it would have stretched out its key games, like Galaxy, Corruption, and Brawl, a bit further apart from each other. Furthermore, given the success of the Wii, I also think that Nintendo thought there would be some key third party titles that would take the spotlight long enough for Nintendo to have the necessary downtime it needed to produce big games. Sadly, that hasn't really happened at this point, but fortunately, Nintendo has struck gold with creating games with an evergreen-like effect at retail this gen, so the lack of that third party "killer app," as the kids these days like to call it, hasn't really impacted the Wii as much as it would have any other system.

I think you're right in saying that Nintendo will be able to ride out the upcoming games until something else comes along. Furthermore, we haven't even seen what Nintendo has in store for the latter half of the year, and I suspect what it releases then will have an evergreen-ish sales effect on the level, if not better than, of the upcoming high-profile games. Nintendo has seemingly found out how to play its cards this gen, and I don't think it would release the likes of Mario and Metroid so close this early if it didn't have something major on the back end of things to keep the momentum going. Maybe this is where Zelda comes in, but I'm also thinking that it might not be the only game coming to town.

Yes it is

Wii Fit sold 22 million copies, Mario Kart sold 21

Heck Wii Fit Plus is almost at 12 million and it's a little over half a year old

8.5 million is not a big game on the Wii. When they think of a game they want to sell to everyone Mario Galaxy doesn't come up on that list.

The Wii's userbase is the casual and by Nintendo focusing on the casual more then ever they've been rewarded with amazing sales. Games like Mario Galaxy even with it's easy accessibility for novice gamers are niche games this gen that don't produce the kind of revenue they can get elsewhere.

I mean is it any wonder we now see the most stripped down 3D platformer from Nintendo this year that will literally walk users through the game? That's because Nintendo is trying to tap into that casual/novice market with Mario Galaxy 2 because they didn't the first time around.

Jaysonguy

OK, for the benefit of the viewers at home, please define "big" and "small", because right now you are calling basically almost every game ever created a small game, as though a game is either OMG THE BEST-SELLING GAME EVAR!!!1 or a small game.

Arc I would expect better from you, using supposition to prove a point is weak. I could easily counter that by saying the bulk of NSMB sales came from people who already owned a Wii or the fact that NSMB just happened to coincide with a price drop leading into the holiday shopping season. Supposition at its finest right there, but you cant really debate it, all you can say is the opposite. Also I noticed my argument about other AAA titles has been conveniently ignored by all parties, if a titles success is measured by the consoles it moves, Halo 3, Mega Fail, MW2, Ultra Fail, ACII, Super Fail, NSMB Wii, Fail-tastic etc etc There is always a hardware spike when AAA titles come out, there will be one when Galaxy 2 comes out, but after 4 years on the market a mass spike will not happen again until it hits the $150 price point.

Even as a console maker, software is the bread winner, it is a constant for the entire generation, hardware sales will rise and fall, and outside of price drop times, software continually brings home the bacon. What do you think they will sale more off, consoles or games? If consoles were the true money maker, why wouldn't everyone make one. Certainly companies like Activsion, EA and Ubisoft could, but they don't because you make more money from software.

When it comes sales. its very simple, crystal clear, there are more people in the world who would rather do some exercise game(especially in image obsessed America) than there are those who want to jump around the mushroom kingdom, but there are more of those people than the ones who want to frag aliens with sticky grenades. No one game will appeal to every single person, but some games have a wider ranger than others. But that doesn't make the latter a commercial failure because you don't go in thinking Zelda is going to do Wii Fit numbers. Its a failure if and only if it underperforms expectations. That simple. If success and failure was dicated by how many consoles it moved, there would have been only like 10 success stories in the HISTORY of gaming.

lol your right Bruno, some people needed a stern talking to :P

@sepewrath - i didn't "conveniently ignore" your argument, i just didn't have what to add to it :P believe it or not, repeating the same thing over and over won't make it a better argument *cough* and thanks for saving me some time and pointing the fact that actually, the ONLY thing that brings money home is software. not hardware (as an example, back when the PS3 was launched, sony would lose $250 per PS3 sold). but of course, the more hardware, the more software you can sell.BrunoBRS

Actually, that's not true; Nintendo makes money off of their hardware.

[QUOTE="BrunoBRS"]@sepewrath - i didn't "conveniently ignore" your argument, i just didn't have what to add to it :P believe it or not, repeating the same thing over and over won't make it a better argument *cough* and thanks for saving me some time and pointing the fact that actually, the ONLY thing that brings money home is software. not hardware (as an example, back when the PS3 was launched, sony would lose $250 per PS3 sold). but of course, the more hardware, the more software you can sell.GabuEx

Actually, that's not true; Nintendo makes money off of their hardware.

either way, the strategy remains: get money from software, not hardware.

1. Arc I would expect better from you, using supposition to prove a point is weak. I could easily counter that by saying the bulk of NSMB sales came from people who already owned a Wii or the fact that NSMB just happened to coincide with a price drop leading into the holiday shopping season. Supposition at its finest right there, but you cant really debate it, all you can say is the opposite.

2. Also I noticed my argument about other AAA titles has been conveniently ignored by all parties, if a titles success is measured by the consoles it moves, Halo 3, Mega Fail, MW2, Ultra Fail, ACII, Super Fail, NSMB Wii, Fail-tastic etc etc There is always a hardware spike when AAA titles come out, there will be one when Galaxy 2 comes out, but after 4 years on the market a mass spike will not happen again until it hits the $150 price point.

3. Even as a console maker, software is the bread winner, it is a constant for the entire generation, hardware sales will rise and fall, and outside of price drop times, software continually brings home the bacon. What do you think they will sale more off, consoles or games? If consoles were the true money maker, why wouldn't everyone make one. Certainly companies like Activsion, EA and Ubisoft could, but they don't because you make more money from software.

4....But that doesn't make the latter a commercial failure because you don't go in thinking Zelda is going to do Wii Fit numbers. Its a failure if and only if it underperforms expectations. That simple. If success and failure was dicated by how many consoles it moved, there would have been only like 10 success stories in the HISTORY of gaming.

lol your right Bruno, some people needed a stern talking to :P

Sepewrath

1.Nintendo themselves said that Wii sales were down because of a lack of software. After the release of NSMBWii they claimed that all their problems had been cured. Also, obviously, Nintendo knew that the Holiday season was going to be big for them. It always is. But the fact that they are having supply shortages says to me that they didn't know exactly how big it was going to be. So what was the X factor here? The holiday season that they knew was coming? The price drop that they had in September? Or the release of NSMBWii, their big holiday title, which was often sold out in stores right along with the Wiis? I have to think it's the last of those.

2. To this I simply say that I don't beleive there will be a significant hardware spike for Nintendo with the release of SMG2, Other M, or S&P2. I guess we'll find out in a few months, though. But I never said they will be commercial failures either. They'll make money, more than likely, but not anywhere near as much as they would if they were massive hardware sellers, which is what Nintendo is after.

3. Again, Nintendo has said that hardware sales are a focus and the software they design is out there to move hardware. hardware sales + software sales are better than software sales alone especially when Nintendo is making so much off of each Wii sold. Last I heard, about a year ago, it cost around $80 USD to produce a Wii.

I have to wonder why companies produce hardware at all if they make all their money on software. Now I'm not saying one or the other is the only way to go, I'm saying that doing both is far more profitable and that is what Nintendo is after.

4. It isn't a commericial faliure at all, you're right. But I'm talking about the direction that the company will go is based off of what will sell more.

Gabu it's impossible to make more money from hardware, even though they were profited from day 1, the more the price drops, the less they will profit from it. Games will always be 50 bucks, if you buy 10 Nintendo games, you basically gave them the price of a console right there. Then there is the money they make from DLC cuts, VC and 3rd party software. You can (hopefully) only buy the console once, you can spend a ton of money on software that far exceeds the money you spent on the hardware. Granted I know things get a little skewed with pirating and the used market, but still the sales they do bring in, especially since Nintendo games generally do well, even *sigh* Wii Music. That's a ton of money coming in from non hardware. Sepewrath

Well, there's price drops, but there's also the fact that the manufacturing becomes cheaper with time, as well.

At any rate, I'm not arguing that hardware is more profitable than software or anything; I'm just pointing out that it is technically inaccurate to say that "the ONLY thing that brings money home is software."

[QUOTE="Jaysonguy"]

Yes it is

Wii Fit sold 22 million copies, Mario Kart sold 21

Heck Wii Fit Plus is almost at 12 million and it's a little over half a year old

8.5 million is not a big game on the Wii. When they think of a game they want to sell to everyone Mario Galaxy doesn't come up on that list.

The Wii's userbase is the casual and by Nintendo focusing on the casual more then ever they've been rewarded with amazing sales. Games like Mario Galaxy even with it's easy accessibility for novice gamers are niche games this gen that don't produce the kind of revenue they can get elsewhere.

I mean is it any wonder we now see the most stripped down 3D platformer from Nintendo this year that will literally walk users through the game? That's because Nintendo is trying to tap into that casual/novice market with Mario Galaxy 2 because they didn't the first time around.

GabuEx

OK, for the benefit of the viewers at home, please define "big" and "small", because right now you are calling basically almost every game ever created a small game, as though a game is either OMG THE BEST-SELLING GAME EVAR!!!1 or a small game.

1. Just the Wii

2. That's it lol

Mario Galaxy fit a niche audience on the Wii. A user group much smaller then the core audience but still large enough to make games for.

As far as if it's still worth making games for such small numbers we really have to see how Mario Galaxy 2 performs. If everything taken out of the last Mario Galaxy helps get the Wii's core userbase then we'll see bigger and better. If the new Mario doesn't catch the casual then I'm not sure how Nintendo responds

I mean look at the cost that goes into Wii Fit and a Mario Kart then look at Mario Galaxy, even the streamlined and simplified sequel (awesome chain of words there lol) has higher cost to make then either of those games.

Arc actually it was a combination of all 3. If they had released NSMB in July the sales wouldn't have been as dramatic, if the game had released on the same date, with a $250 price tag, the sales wouldn't have been as successful. Yeah the price dropped in September, but how much would you be willing to bet that many of those Wii's in November and December were gifts. People simply waited for the deals of black friday and such to go get it. No one is denying the impact that the Mario name has on sales, but that goes for any Mario title. The difference between NSMB and Galaxy, is how many people it appeals to. That doesn't make it any different in stature from any other AAA game. Because I guess that would make Wii Play the biggest game in history, because it sold to the largest percentage of the audience and it moved wiimotes.

Second there will be a hardware spike, the same way the PS3 is outselling the Wii in Japan because Yakuza amd something else came out. A huge spike? No, but a spike nonetheless. The Wii will see the same for Galaxy 2 through Other M, yes it wont be a dramatic thing, but not even NSMB would have done that, it was just in the right place at the right time.

Third yes hardware sales are important, its hard to play Mario Galaxy 2 if you don't own a Wii and is an even tougher sale. However, the bread and butter of revenue is still software. Lets say it cost $80 bucks to make a Wii, that is $110 difference, nice. Now I go buy Galaxy 2, S&P2 and Other M at Nintendo World Store and that's $150 dollars, then I can go get 3 more, then 2 more, then 1 more, I have by far surpassed the one time purchase of the console. Software is where the big bucks are, but you have to sell the hardware first, that's what they mean when they say its a focus. You made the point yourself, when you produce software for your own console, you make more money. Do you think Sega see's the kind of scratch they use to? Why do you think OnLive is coming in soley on the software front?

And did yourself not say games would be failures because they wouldn't produce big numbers commercially? Well if not a commercial failure when your directly talking about its impact commercially. What other kind of failure is there?

[QUOTE="Darth-Samus"]

[QUOTE="GabuEx"]

Super Mario Galaxy sold 8.5 million copies, making it the #8 best-selling game on the entire console.

There comes a point when exaggeration traverses the gap between hyperbole for effect and outright factual inaccuracy.

BrunoBRS

Whoa :shock:

Did you write the monologue for The Architect at the end of Matrix Reloaded?? I don't understand what you just said, but I think it's prbably right so I'm just keep this glazed look in my eye and applaud.

*applause*

Lol I know buddy. It was a joke referring to how pointlessly overstated the simple concept was. Kind of silly vocabulary but whatevs. Thanks for trying though duder!

Mario Galaxy fit a niche audience on the Wii. A user group much smaller then the core audience but still large enough to make games for.

As far as if it's still worth making games for such small numbers we really have to see how Mario Galaxy 2 performs. If everything taken out of the last Mario Galaxy helps get the Wii's core userbase then we'll see bigger and better. If the new Mario doesn't catch the casual then I'm not sure how Nintendo responds

I mean look at the cost that goes into Wii Fit and a Mario Kart then look at Mario Galaxy, even the streamlined and simplified sequel (awesome chain of words there lol) has higher cost to make then either of those games.

Jaysonguy

I still have to disagree but I see where your coming from. I honestly don't think Galaxy 2 will push as much software or hardware as Wii Fit, Mario Kart, NSMB or SSBB. But that doesn't mean it isn't a major game for the Wii platform. I still think that Galaxy 2, Other M, and even MH3 will give hardware a bump and help keep people interested in Wii. Another thing to keep in mind is games like Wii Fit and Mario Kart are bought by both new and traditional gamers. Also Wii Fit is bundled with a unique piece of hardware too. Just because games like Galaxy and Zelda don't sell as well as well as games that have broader reach like Wii Fit or Mario Kart doesn't mean they aren't "big". Neglecting one audience at the expense of another is not a good idea and Nintendo knows this.

Again do you have an explanation for Galaxy being statistically (game to console ratio) more successful than every game on PS2 except one. The way I'm looking at your reasoning is every GTA game except San Andreas on PS2 was a failure along with all the Final Fantasy, Guitar Hero, and countless other games on PS2 as well.

Mario Galaxy fit a niche audience on the Wii. A user group much smaller then the core audience but still large enough to make games for.

As far as if it's still worth making games for such small numbers we really have to see how Mario Galaxy 2 performs. If everything taken out of the last Mario Galaxy helps get the Wii's core userbase then we'll see bigger and better. If the new Mario doesn't catch the casual then I'm not sure how Nintendo responds

I mean look at the cost that goes into Wii Fit and a Mario Kart then look at Mario Galaxy, even the streamlined and simplified sequel (awesome chain of words there lol) has higher cost to make then either of those games.

Jaysonguy

The cost of developing Wii Fit was HIGHER than that of SMG because they developed a new peripheral along with it. Now that the balance board is out, development of just the software for it will be less, but they can only make so many fitness games before interest disappears.

Your analysis of casual buyers doesn't include that faction of owners who bought Wii Fit and are more hardcore. How many people are like myself who play Metroid, Zelda, Res Evil, NMH, etc. but bought Wii Fit for my daughter who plays it everyday. Wii fit may well be in many households that have a combination of casual and more hardcore oriented gamers.

Nintendo made a system that fits a more family friendly model. Households may have games ranging from HOD Overkill to Wii Fit, to TP. Games are not just designed to fit the standard gaming demographic of 12 - 25 year old males. If that makes each game a "Niche" game to you, well, you are welcome to your opinion, but I wouldn't call a GOY with high critical praise and 8.5 mil sales a niche title.

[QUOTE="Sepewrath"]Gabu it's impossible to make more money from hardware, even though they were profited from day 1, the more the price drops, the less they will profit from it. Games will always be 50 bucks, if you buy 10 Nintendo games, you basically gave them the price of a console right there. Then there is the money they make from DLC cuts, VC and 3rd party software. You can (hopefully) only buy the console once, you can spend a ton of money on software that far exceeds the money you spent on the hardware. Granted I know things get a little skewed with pirating and the used market, but still the sales they do bring in, especially since Nintendo games generally do well, even *sigh* Wii Music. That's a ton of money coming in from non hardware. GabuEx

Well, there's price drops, but there's also the fact that the manufacturing becomes cheaper with time, as well.

At any rate, I'm not arguing that hardware is more profitable than software or anything; I'm just pointing out that it is technically inaccurate to say that "the ONLY thing that brings money home is software."

so your saying smb isnt for people who bought n64s etc for , your wrong

i still play mariokart gotta problem

i think nintendo will still be able to release a new console next year regardless of the titles that are coming to wii ,

they are big , have many teams so if a new console was coming theyd probably make fzero marioparty 9 etc the games they havent pumped out for wii theyll pump them out for next gen , ,

and go from there

and looking at my wii collection i play a variety of games,

i still play big hitters such as cod resident evil nmh mario zelda metroid ariokart etc but ialso found osme games like petz dogs 2 and puppy luv that i enjoy just as much

so ya alot of posters here have a point

Why would they completely blow their load this year and then have no games for the launch of the new system next year? It seems to me that the much smarter thing to do would be to push back all those games onto the new console and then tell people "You want to play these games? Then buy our new console, lol"

GabuEx

I think they will chill with consoles this year. 3DS + Zelda Wii showcasing + Pikmin 3? is huge.

Instead we might see some new Motion+ stuff and in the Wii ___ (Fit 3?) department we will probably see the Vitality sensor in action.

2011 E3: Wii 2 announced, 720p, Wiimote+Nunchuk 2.0 ftw

kontejner44

This is probably what we're going to see.