What Numbers Does Xenoblade Chronicles X Need To Launch With To Be Successful?

Considering that all the titles this year have failed to reach expectations on the Wii U they have all been followed by "well Xenoblade is the real game worth having this year" sometimes paired with "Xenoblade is the first game made for gamers, something the Wii U is missing". Time to put the money where the mouth is.

While other games didn't make the grade this year it's fair to say that Xenoblade should have some great launch numbers. It doesn't have any competition on the Wii U so nothing will take from it's numbers.

I would say for Xenoblade not to fail it needs in the neighborhood of 850k-1 million it's first week. That would bring it to an 8-10% adoption rate with room to grow to about 20%.

With new hardware launching next year this will be the last holiday for the Wii U. Will it go out with everyone buying Xenoblade in droves showing everyone that this is the sort of game that should have been on it from the start or will we see that it's not the software's fault and this is just a piece of hardware people don't want to get behind?

EDIT: Trugs was nice enough to point out that Splatoon overperfomred for the Wii U this year.

If we're talking sales and measuring success, then we'd need to know how much money Nintendo invested in it in the first place. So yeah, I have no idea. Have Nintendo stated at previous investors meetings their sales targets, etc. for other games?

Oh by the way, not sure if your first statement is true. Splatoon is a counter example that comes to mind.

1 million total. I think Reggie stated Wii U games need to meet 1 million to make their money back. This is for a max type budget though, of course smaller games can do well with less.

3DS i think is $250k for max budgets.

And no, this wont be the last holiday for the Wii U. Zelda is coming to Wii U for the holidays next year.

1 million by the end of the holiday season.

It won't even do half a million in the first week.

Forgot about that one, Splatoon is a game that overperfromed this year for the Wii U.

Decent numbers for a middle of the road title.

@Jaysonguy: Yoshi Woolly World and Super Mario Maker sold like crazy also. And we havnt even reached the holidays sales numbers yet. Its rumored Splatoon might break the 3 million mark in just 1 year, its amazing.

Yoshi and Mario both failed Nintendo's expectations this year.

Splatoon is the only title that did as or better than anticipated.

What where their expectations Senpai?

Realistically, I don't think Xenoblade X will be commercially successful. I'm expecting good scores from review sites, 8 and 9's mostly, with the occasional 10 from Nintendo focused sites. But due to poor Wii U sales and the fact it's a JRPG, which have lost some appeal in the western market in the last decade outside of key franchises, it simply won't sell well over here.

I do personally think it'll be one of, if not the best game released this year.

@spike6958: Im guessing it will actually sell better then the original. All the collectors are sold out, so its already a good sign. Will it sell over 3 million, probably not.

55 million in NA alone Jay

I don't know, I kinda think it will do pretty well due to how barren Wii U's lineup was this year.

One. Mine.

I think it's going to flop hard in terms of sales. Fans will love it, but the majority will ignore it. Expecting this game to sell 850k-1 million in its first week is way too optimistic (and delusional), it'll sell somewhere around 150-200k.

Whatever the case I'm going to enjoy Xenoblade Chronicles X when it's released. :)

250K, first one sold like crap. Although, there are TV ads coming to NA and UK.

I wouldnt be suprised if splatoon broke 3 million cause new wii u bundle. Xenoblade will follow in the ink of splatoon bundle sales!

Quality aside (whatever that may be has yet to be determined) this game is more niche than many and as such, I doubt it will sell overly well here in the states. I'll be shocked if it does though.

My first guess is that a niche game on an unpopular console will sell badly.

I think it's fair to say that about the first one, it was pretty mediocre and only sold at one place.

Now it's been three years since the Wii U launched and it's rolled over to 10 million units in people's homes. While it's been a bad year for software the same mantra has been said "as long as Xenoblade comes out this year it's worth it".

This is "THE" title for Wii U owners. It's not a watered down first person shooter, it's not a less successful Kirby clone, it's not a do it yourself game missing most of the pieces. This is a real game with characters and story and locales.

I mean think of it. If you were a Wii U only owner you had to wait until December for a game that featured a story.

If 1 out of every 10 people don't pick this up when it's available it's a failure, there's no way around it.

@Jaysonguy: Although this game is the most hardcore niche JRPG youll ever see, yes, this badboy will sell. I predict it beats Bayonetta 2 and becomes the most successful niche Nintendo game ever. Im predicting over 2 million lifetime sales.

Also Yoshi is not a flop, the game is selling like hotcakes mate. It will outsell Kirbys Epic Yarn. And its not a Kirby clone, it implements totally different mechanics.

Xenoblade Chronicles X Special Edition is sold out at all major online retailers. This might not mean much, but its something.

The skepticism in me comes from the fact that "as long as (insert title) comes out this year" has been repeated like a damned parakeet from so many owners in regards to all sorts of releases since 2012. The only difference I find is how that phrase was uttered for well known rather than cult classic titles. I think it needs well in excess of 2 million plus to be the nut breaker people think it will be. As comparisons, what did Mario Maker put up in the first month and what has XC done in Japan?

RPGs represent 9.5% of all of the sales in all of the video game genres. http://www.statista.com/statistics/189592/breakdown-of-us-video-game-sales-2009-by-genre/ Assuming Nintendo gamers are an average sample of the video game gamer population, we can guess that the Xenoblade Chronicles X (XCX) should be considered to sell average at around 950,000 in the long term if it sells well (around 9.5% of Nintendo's Wii U owners). IMO XCX should be considered to be doing well at launch if it sells 250,000+ copies in NA. If it sells exceptionally well it will sell above these numbers IMO.

The thing is that Nintendo gamers may represent a greater portion of the Action Platformer genre than gamers of other systems.

Disclaimer: This is all my take on the situation, and there may be problems my analysis since I am not a professional.

@Jaysonguy: How many did the first Xenoblade Chronicles sold on Wii? ...guess it depends if they made profit on it as whole & whether it sold better than Xenoblade Chronicles (Wii). :P

Half a million for Mario Maker

80k for Xenoblade

This is a brilliant, well thought out post.

Here's my counter. The Wii U has zero RPG's and like I said above, this is the first Wii U game with a story this year. I think your numbers apply best to a situation where there is..

• Multiple titles of the same genre
• A healthy library with many options in multiple genres

I think the Wii U's library skews those results.

It was a limited release with only one retailer. There were only a million copies offered.

@Jaysonguy: Thanks. You make some very good points too.

There is no way the game will sell enough to make any kind of profit. The fact it got a localized release at all is Nintendo sending a thank you note to their fans.

I'm thinking that it will sell around 250k lifetime in the US. This will be considered a miracle and with Japan and EU I could see the total unit sale creep up to the 400-500k area. This should be a crowning achievement. Seriously.

@bunchanumbers: I think your way off mate, its already sold bout that in Japan.

Well here's the thing. The first game got about a million printed but the results were skewed for two reasons

1. Gamestop lost some shipments that showed up later, we're not sure they're all found.
2. Resellers pounced on the game to make a quick buck

That leaves us with about a million units sold last time but how many were legit? No idea.

The new game is closing in 100k in Japan right now so while it's selling worse than the Wii version it's not a complete disaster.

@Jaysonguy: It sold better then the original in Japan. With a very, very small install base. It sold bout 100k in the fist week in Japan. And thats not including Bundles sold, which Nintendo said the game helped sell bundles.

XC came close to a million sales so we shall see.

Probably not a lot, but I hope it sells well enough so that they'll still port future Xenoblade games to the west.

I'm not sure, but I hope it does well. Of course I haven't played the game, but Xenoblade was an incredible experience in every way (and I rarely use the term experience to describe games).

Just picked up a Wii U myself, (not specifically for Xenoblade, moreso for MK8). I kind of want to pick up the original on Wii first, however. By the way, anyone need more Wii friends? My Ninty ID is Allicrombie, feel free to add me. (shameless plug)

It would be great if it would have a lifetime sales of over 2million. So far the best selling XENO game is Xenosaga Episode 1 at 1.7 million.

Congrats on getting Wii U, the original Xenoblade Chronicles is pretty awesome and worth looking for a good deal on.

Ya looks like the wii u has another awesome exclusive on its hands, been a great year for the wii u!

Unless another surprise happens similar to Splatoon, Xenoblade CX is going to be a slow performer.

It is a niche title on a system that is catatonic in hardware and software sales near the end of its life cycle.