Campaign news: Bush drops out, Clinton barely wins Nevada, Trump wins South Carolina

Bush calls it quits.... Please laugh: LINK

Hilly Hildog wins Nevada: LINK

Trump trumping it out in South Carolina: LINK

Well, can't say I'm surprised. Considering Bush's bad poll numbers and Trumps popularity, it was bound to happen. Also, while Clinton did win, she barely did with 52%. So what's your thoughts OT? Surprised? Not surprised? Don't care? (even though you should). Personally, I don't care for Bush and Trump's poll surges and victories are disheartening.

Trump will likely win the GOP nomination but the independents are too scared of him to give him the general. The GOP knows this and that's why they hate Trump.

But Trump is the embodiment of the GOPs rhetoric the past 8 years so they did it to themselves.

@drunk_pi: My thoughts and feelings?

I think the Republicans are lost, and have backed themselves into a corner and have let a small but vocal conservative minority dominate their party and dictate their policy. My feelings are that I am terrified.

But I am happy Bush is out; he looked so sad and unsure of himself, I think he was only doing it to keep the family legacy going, much like George W. was. I feel if he actually ran and was his own man, he would have been a good Republican candidate, much like Bush. Sr.

With a Clinton win in Nevada and a sizable lead in early polling in South Carolina, she'll have some very good momentum going into Super Tues. With Bush out I'd imagine Marco Rubio will receive the largest chunk of Bush support slowly pushing Cruz out of the race making it a two way race between himself and Trump. I still think it'll likely be a Clinton/Trump race in the general election, with Clinton becoming the next president of the United States.

Not surprising. I think struggle will be mostly between Cruz and Trump, and maybe Rubio clinging as long as he can. I expect Carson might drop out next but more likely is Kasich (shame considering he was best GOP candidate). And it will always be a struggle between Hilary & Sanders unless Sanders gets a bit center to attract pragmatic democratic voters

I think Cruz is done. If he can't even win in a state like SC that is tailor made for him with evangelical voters he has no shot anywhere else. He'll stick around for awhile of course but he won't win.

Rubio is hoping that Trump will eventually hit a ceiling and that once the other candidates start dropping out that their support will go to him so he can start gaining ground. I'm not convinced it will be enough though.

Barring some unseen turn of events its going to be Trump vs Hillary.

@NathanDrakeSwag: Speaking of evangelical voters, after pope said Trump's policies weren't Christian, I expected some effect to the extent. I guess time will show once actual election starts

@NathanDrakeSwag: at least in a Trump vs Hillary general election, there are clear choices. There are no similar policies or ideological crossovers or anything like that; there would be clearly drawn lines, where voters know exactly who and what they are getting.

Evangelical voters aren't likely to care about what the pope has to say so Trump's fight with the pope might actually help him with Evangelicals.

Democrats have a potential “golden ticket” this year, what with the possibility of not only taking back the White House, but also the 10-12 Senate seats up for grabs, and Scalia’s vacant seat on the Court is likely going to go to a liberal as well (or a moderate at worst). Assuming that Hillary or Sanders is elected President, there has been talk that Justices Ginsberg (83) and Kennedy (80) will be stepping down, allowing Dems to nominate and control the Court for the next thirty years, potentially.

On the flip side, if you’re a Republican, you need a win badly. This means that the conservative base, who may not like Trump, would most likely vote for him anyway simply because of his ability to put a W on the board. Let’s assume you don’t buy into Trump’s, “Mexicans love me!” rhetoric and you don’t want to support him. That’s fine, but who else have you got, really? Ted Cruz is a smart cookie, but he’s so conservative that it’s really difficult for anyone that doesn’t lean to the extreme right to take him seriously. Marco Rubio, who may be a moderate, has little to no experience and is about as charismatic as a stone table. Kasich seems the most likable of the GOP candidates, though apparently likability is only worth about 6% to voters in South Carolina.

Possibilities: Hillary Clinton selecting Elizabeth Warren as a running mate, versus Trump (and almost assuredly a male running mate) leading to a veritable “Battle of the Sexes,” this November?

What do you think, OT?

I could totally see Clinton picking Warren for VP for the following reasons: a) Clinton needs to build some excitement among young voters and progressive and b) A two woman ticket might energize female voters in a way that Clinton's identity politics has so far failed to do, considering that Warren is an actual progressive.

Cruz is almost certainly going to stay in the race a long time. He has nothing to lose since he is not subject to establishment pressure and he should do better than Rubio during Super Tuesday. Kasich staying in is also a problem for Rubio. Not to mention that Cruz exiting the race might very benefit Trump (though I'm not certain about that).

The biggest problem for Rubio is that he's not going to be able to rack up wins for awhile. And it's hard to see how a candidate wins the nomination after losing so much.

The media love to fawn over Rubio and his momentum and his establishment appeal and his potential, but in actuality he's not actually performing that well. I mean, 3rd in Iowa, 5th in New Hampshire, 2nd (but basically a tie) in South Carolina, probably 2nd in Nevada. That is not a winning campaign right there. Why in the world do people think Rubio is such a good candidate, especially after he got exposed as a talking point machine by Chris Christie?

@br0kenrabbit said:

Trump will likely win the GOP nomination but the independents are too scared of him to give him the general. The GOP knows this and that's why they hate Trump.

But Trump is the embodiment of the GOPs rhetoric the past 8 years so they did it to themselves.

Yep. They opened this Pandora's Box and now they have to deal with the consequences. Even if Trump doesn't outright win the nomination, this debacle has done considerable damage.

The worst thing is if Trump doesn't get enough delegates to get the nomination but prevents Rubio or Cruz from getting a majority, there will be a brokered convention, which will be an absolute disaster any way you slice it.

Trump may very likely win the nomination. This isn't a SNL skit. He will represent the conservative voice in this country. He will guarante a victory for democratic candidate.

Well, outside of the fluke that was Iowa: You can't stump the trump.

Congrats on Hillary on the slight victory. But a victory is a victory, so congrats.

If this turns out to be a Trump vs Hillary election. I can see Trump riding Hillary Clinton's weaknesses so far. He will exploit and expose them so bad, only a few will want to vote for Clinton.

Anyone who thinks hillary or even Sanders stands a chance against Trump in the general election are in for a rude awakening.. Americans are vehemently against TPP , retarded foreign policy, open borders and other free trade deals which have decimated the american workforce.

Plus Trump will absolutely destroy the clinton brand.

That's not exactly what the pope said.

He would absolutely destroy the clinton brand. Possibly even capable of swaying some democrats, particulary upset Sanders supporters. One thing I have noticed with several sanders supporters is that Trump of all people is their second pick... Trump will also be able to call her out on supporting all BS wars and whatnot.

Sanders is a much bigger problem, as Sanders sides against the establishment as well, which means he opposes the vast majority of the things you listed. He also sides with the american populace on so much more,

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/3/10904988/bernie-sanders-political-revolution-poll

Democrats will need Ohio or Florida, unless they clean sweep Virginia and the southwest(Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Arizona). Sanders will lose every crucial swing state, and gun control cost Hillary the election 4 months ago. She'll never be able to back peddle from her stance and will have to try and sway gun loving indies and moderates to give in, or stay home.

Sanders slowly being eaten away by that parasite Hillary. So sad.

There is some really amateurish political analysis going on ITT. If you're going to make these big claims, at least support them with some evidence.

Sanders is showing that he can't win.

Trump is showing that he will be a great president.

My thoughts exactly. If Trump manage to stay for this very long, that tells you that Americans don't want to change, just want to have another fool in the White House but hey, if Americans want to destroyed U.S, be my guest.

He basically said that someone who behaves the way Trump does is not Christian and he's absolutely right. I'm glad the Pope called him out on his behavior.

Trump doesn't pass the character test (among many other tess). How anybody thinks it acceptable to mock a disabled man, call Carly Fiorina ugly, or ban Muslims from entering the country (and that's just the tip of the iceberg) is beyond me. That Trump has come so far shows a certain erosion of morals and decency IMO.

The data doesn't really support this whole "Trump will destroy the Democrats" narrative that you guys are pushing.

I would have to see some data to believe that this is a real thing and not just a case of you encountering aberrations. A Sanders supporter who has Trump as a second choice is hopelessly confused.

The only Democrats he'd probably sway are conservative Dems with a bit of a racist streak.

As a catholic I was ashamed that the pope I said that. For a religious leader to question someones faith is disgusting. Conisdering that the Vatican is surrounded by walls and that the Vatican has not accepted any refugees to live there I find it hypocritical regardless of what you think about Trump.

Thank you

Criticizes the idea of Trump wanting a wall, meanwhile at the Vatican....

If someone is not acting Christian, I think it's perfectly fine to question their faith. I wish more people had the balls to call people out when their behavior is not matching their alleged faith.

Also, you're totally missing the Pope's point about walls. He is not saying that all physical walls must be torn down. He was talking about divisiveness. This is his exact quote:

“A person who thinks only about building walls, wherever they may be, and not building bridges, is not Christian."

It's clear that he's not saying that a person can't build walls at all, but not in the spirit of division. He didn't say that nobody's allowed to have walls or gates.

I disagree. The fact that he has come this far shows a lot of people are fed up with political correctness. PC went too far when the San Bernardino terrorist attack could have been prevented but people were too afraid to report the obvious terrorists because they didn't want to be called racist.

In my experience, most of the people that rant continually about political correctness are usually pretty callous and mean-spirited, so I don't think the anti-PC raging is incompatible with an erosion of decency.

I mean, sometimes political correctness is over the top and can get in the way of sense and progress, but if a person is so anti-PC that they think Trump's behavior is acceptable, I think they have some soul searching to do.

I agree that he has no charisma (the people comparing him to Obama are trippin'), but he doesn't need charisma to beat Clinton. He just needs to cast her as untrustworthy and the old face of politics. Being inexperienced might actually help in that he has less baggage.

That being said, I could easily see Clinton destroying Rubio in a debate. Dude has no substance. But Clinton has some severe weaknesses that Democrats need to acknowledge.

Some people here and well as a few other places. Yes, it is very anecdotal. Hence my usage of vague terms. And it merely concerns with personal experiences.

The sanders supporters who also support donald trump are most likely just very anti establishment.

Trump has the most non Republican supporters since Reagan.

And then they fall back to their own form of political correctness: Conservative correctness.

• Rick Scott and his censorship of the term Climate Change
• Getting Third Wave feminist esque reactions over... the existance of a homosexual couple, in several video games.
• Rebranding food. Freedom Fries instead of French Fries, Meditteranian food instead of Middle Eastern Food.
• True Americans/True American Values
• Opposition to Flag Burnings
• Low tolerence for criticism of the police and military.
• "Libertarians". Not to say actual libertarians exist. But I have seen so many self proclaimed libertarians be anything BUT libertarians. Closer to authoritarian even.
• Confederate Denialism "It was about states rights not slavery"
• Intelligent design
• Teach the Controversy
• Abstinance Programs
• War on Christmas
• Lets not forget the people who seem to believe that freedom of speech is freedom from criticism because of said speech

Several weeks ago Jeb Bush was the frontrunner and pundits from both sides were dismissing Trump as a fool.

Or not American... I am quite sure I have said exactly the same thing. First pick is Sanders, second pick is Trump. I don't know a lot about any potential candidate, mostly just what I read here and what reaches the news. So it isn't exactly an informed decision.

Good news on Clinton, Sanders scares me way too far left for me.

I wish Carson would drop out of the race and endorse Rubio or Cruz

Not really a fluke considering the dirty trick Cruz played to get Carson's votes. I mean even if people realized the truth who the **** abandons voters on such day and go to Florida to change clothes.

Clinton didn't barely win. She won by a decent margin. Over 5%. And that with Sanders coming on strong after New Hampshire.

It's weird, but true. I can further vouch for his personal experiences with my own, but beyond that there are polls that bear this out and their own campaigns recognize this reality. The crossover numbers I've seen isn't a majority, but IIRC correctly it was in the teens of each camp - statistically significant.

Whoa, wait. Let's be honest. The politicians who wear their faiths on their sleeves tend to, in no way, be sincere about it. You cannot take a current presidential candidate who does so, look at their platforms, and tell me those platforms are dictated (or even compatible in most cases) with their religion.

It's pretty hard to call any of the remaining GOP candidates moderates at this point, including Rubio. The closest would probably be Kasich, but he's a dead man walking now.

That margin is even more embarrassing for Sanders knowing that he outspent Clinton 2 to 1 in the state and still lost by 5 percentage points.

Rubio is the only chance that the GOP has at winning. They need to get Kasich out and backing him. Trump has no chance of winning, he's the definition of a low information voter candidate.

Funny, last election was a game of musical chairs for Republicans, see what would happen is all the Republicans are batshit crazy so the moment one steps into the spotlight and opens their mouth that makes room for someone else to take the spotlight... just so happens Trump is still in the lead and doesn't seem to be going anywhere, instead of the lead getting swapped out every couple weeks it's the 2nd place establishment candidate.

Anyhow, props to Bernie for narrowing that Hillary lead down by just sticking with the issues and not resorting to petty personal attacks, she's not the shoe in candidate she arrogantly thought she'd be. She's has to resort to making baseless attacks against Bernie Sanders, and trying not so subtly abusing the female card. Anyhow, saw this Tweet the other day, I'd agree, she has the Frank Underwood vibe about her...

I love the OT political desk.

@mattbbpl: Well Cruz is so far right that everyone else seems moderate in comparison.

Saddest moments in Jeb Bush's campaign: LINK

Sadder than Schindler's List. I want to hug you too Jeb Bush.