Clinton's bounce is bigger than Trump's so far

Clinton's bounce has been an average of 7 points while Trump's was 3 to 4 points. The most recent polls have Clinton ahead.

Post-convention polls:

CNN/ORC: Clinton+9, 12 point swing

Raba Research: Clinton+15, 10 point swing

Public Policy Polling: Clinton+5, 1 point swing

Morning Consult: Clinton+3, 7 point swing

CBS: Clinton+7, 7 point swing

YouGov: Clinton+5, 3 point swing

Link

Also, Gallup has a poll showing that after the conventions, voters are more llikely to vote for Clinton and less likely to vote for Trump.

This is exactly why I didn't freak out when Trump was leading/tied after the RNC. But I won't rejoice either. Some of this bounce could dissipate as well. Still, the good news is that when the data settles, Clinton will likely still lead. Also, I could be wrong, but I think Trump's remarks about the Khan family are going to hurt him worse than some of his other controversies have. The backlash is still going strong.

Still, this bump, large by recent standards, is not surprising. The DNC was very well done: it was well produced, it had a few incredible speeches (Obama, Michelle, Biden, khan), it was optimistic, it was patriotic, and it did a good job of attacking Trump without venturing into the gutter.

Good to see. I didn't think Trumps lead could last, though there may be a pendulum swing back and forth before its all done.

Call me biased all you want, but the data is what it is. Clinton's bounce was bigger and she is now clearly in the lead again.

Can't wait for the Clinton-Trump debates.

It's still concerning to see Trump's rise in the polls and while it may not be an indicator that he'll win, we all probably said the same thing about his run for the GOP candidacy.

Also, while the U.S. does have a generation that is growing and becoming more liberal, it's also the generation that believes that "voting doesn't make a difference." That and dissatisfied voters and "Bernie bros."

I know, I'm a pessimist.

Polls don't mean shit.

Yet you were perfectly happy to make a thread about them when Trump was leading.

Trump (and fellow Alex Jones koolaid drinkers) upon viewing these poll results:

That is a very good point.

-Byshop

Yes, he has risen in the polls, but Clinton had a small but clear lead before the conventions (the FBI thing hurt her bad) and now she has an even clearer lead. Donald Trump is not going to win if he's behind in the polls. The only time to really freak out is if he's actually leading the polls in September. I have no reason to think that he will. Trump has actually only lead the race during two points: after he had clearly won his party's nomination and Clinton was still in the midst of her primary battle and after the RNC, in which he recieved a post-convention bounce.

I also pointed out that polls don't mean anything in my own thread.

You can't really call be biased for making a thread about polls when you did. Also, one could argue that saying "polls don't mean shit" is biased. It's not even an accurate statement. Polls have absolutely been predictive. If they didn't mean shit, poll firms wouldn't spend money conducting them.

The only potential game changers left are the debates. If the Clinton campaign somehow survived the FBI email investigation, there's very little left they can do to hurt themselves. They've weathered the worst storm they probably ever will.

The Trump campaign, in the mean time, seems to have a fetish for smashing its own face with bricks. Eventually the pain wears off and numbness sets in, and each strike doesn't hurt as much as before, but all indications seem to be that they're still going to keep doing it all the way until November.

Initially I was worried about how clinton could do in a general election debate, but now I'm think its going to be extremely easy to bait Trump into some pointless diatribe that, again, ends up with self-inflicted wounds.

This is what I'd be scared about if I was a Republican (well, actually if I was a Republican, I wouldn't support Trump since he's not actually a conservative, but still...). You never know what he's going to do do next to shoot himself in the foot. Trump lacks the ability to sit back and let Clinton be damaged by bad news. He always has to find a way to damage himself as well.

How many polls have been wrong? A LOT.

Plus this is not like every other race. Stop treating it like one.

Doenst surprise me at all. Especially considering that the DNC actually had some great speeches here and there. I hope that Khan controversy keeps going strong. If only to expose Donald Trump for the thin skinned bully that he is. He, a 70 year old man, is as mature as I was when I was 14-15... and I am not proud of those days.

And yes, I thought it was silly to assume that Trump is now the favorite because he had a small lead. I made the mistake before, learnt from it and did not repeat it.

Seriously, though, polls mean something. It's just important to remember that polls rely on statistics, and statistics is (as a stats teacher once said to us in class) the art of making things say what you want them to say.

It's also important to remember that polls are temporary, fleeting; when people wake up tomorrow morning, their answer to the same questions might be completely different than the ones they give today.

I don't put much stock into polls other than to see what is trending, not as any sort of predictor.

@mrbojangles25 said:

@GreySeal9 said:

@n64dd said:

@GreySeal9 said:

@n64dd said:

You're so biased it makes me want to shoot myself.

Call me biased all you want, but the data is what it is. Clinton's bounce was bigger and she is now clearly in the lead again.

Polls don't mean shit.

Yet you were perfectly happy to make a thread about them when Trump was leading.

Seriously, though, polls mean something. It's just important to remember that polls rely on statistics, and statistics is (as a stats teacher once said to us in class) the art of making things say what you want them to say.

It's also important to remember that polls are temporary, fleeting; when people wake up tomorrow morning, their answer to the same questions might be completely different than the ones they give today.

I don't put much stock into polls other than to see what is trending, not as any sort of predictor.

Exactly.

Polls have been right far more often than they have been wrong.

This is indeed an atypical race, but the polls accurately predicted the Republican primary, which was arguably more atypical and more difficult to poll. It's not reasonable to think that polls that were correct in the primary will be wrong in the general, especially when polling tends to perform worse in primary contests.

@n64dd: how dare you agree with me, Trump supporter! HOW DARE YOU!!!!! I'd shoot you myself, but guns are evil...

Nice to see that there is some semblance of sanity left.

@mrbojangles25 said:

@GreySeal9 said:

@n64dd said:

@GreySeal9 said:

@n64dd said:

You're so biased it makes me want to shoot myself.

Call me biased all you want, but the data is what it is. Clinton's bounce was bigger and she is now clearly in the lead again.

Polls don't mean shit.

Yet you were perfectly happy to make a thread about them when Trump was leading.

Seriously, though, polls mean something. It's just important to remember that polls rely on statistics, and statistics is (as a stats teacher once said to us in class) the art of making things say what you want them to say.

It's also important to remember that polls are temporary, fleeting; when people wake up tomorrow morning, their answer to the same questions might be completely different than the ones they give today.

I don't put much stock into polls other than to see what is trending, not as any sort of predictor.

This is not entirely true. Presidential polls are actually fairly stable. Clinton has lead for the entire race with the exception of two periods, one in which Clinton was still in the midst of her primary battle and Trump was done with his, and the other after the RNC in which Trump got a historically predictable bounce.

Link to an article that makes the case that Trump's polling trajectory most resembles McCain's.

Not surprised, after Trump fucked-up with his bizarre outburst against the Khans.

@Jag85: It's also bizarre to exploit the death of your son for an election. People are way more offended by Trump's words than muslims decapitating priests in France.

"Decapitating a priest is ok, just don't defend yourself when someone exploits the death of their son during an election. That's going to make me have to hide in my safe space!"

lmao bullshit. Trump is beating Hillary in every major poll i've seen so far. he's leading in 4/5 swing states. And the bulk of the wikileaks stuff against crooked Hillary hasnt even came out yet.

New CNN/ORC poll out. Pre-DNC, it had Trump up by 3 points. Now it has Hillary up by 9, which is a 12 point swing.

I can't wait for the debates to start. He will have Hillary in tears when he starts bringing up her husband getting BJ's in the white house from other women and now she wants to go back lol.

All the recent polls are listed here. Trump is leading none of them. His lead is gone.

That might appeal to crass internet trolls like you but it won't appeal to the American public. The Democrats putting on a classier convention is part of the reason Clinton's bump is so much larger. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump skips the debates. He was too much of a little bitch to debate Cruz when there was just three people left in the race.

Yep, nothing more sane than giving one of the most corrupt people on the planet even more power.

If Trump is proposing a Muslim ban, it's perfectly acceptable for a man to use his son's sacrifice to refute such rhetoric. Most people understand that.

Also, one can be offended at Trump's comments and radical Muslims decapitating Trump at the same time. Maybe Trump supporters can only handle emotion at a time (anger), but that's not the case for everyone.

He had no reason to debate Cruz because the race was already over. He was mathematically eliminated and he still refused to drop out until he got destroyed in Indiana.

Also the GE is still like 98 days away and we all know the media favors Clinton and will always do anything they can to make things seem better for her than they really are. Dems wouldn't be clinging so tightly to polls over 3 months out if they weren't worried deep inside. People don't like her, don't trust her and Trump has not even started to go in on her yet plus the rest of her emails will eventually get leaked and hurt her.

Better to give corrupt people more power than to elect a tempermental manchild who doesn't even understand basic economic and foreign policy.

The DNC already hurt themselves with the new Leaks that favored Hillary during the primary. Polls are polls. Hillary is the most corrupted person in DC

From what I seen from polls, poling aggregates and etc OP in the last few months I don't think trump was ever in the lead besides maybe in may. He just made the race closer especially in the last few weeks. If I recall only 538 and RCP showed trump leading in the last week or so. Clinton has always held a decent electoral college lead even when he was doing well. Anyway this race will most likely not be close in the end and she may be able to win by a bit more than obama won by in 2008.

@Wickerman777: Certainly more sane then voting in that orange skinned clown.

He also weaseled out of facing Megyn Kelly after she tore him a new one. Don't try to act like Trump is not scared of debates. He knows he's ignorant and he's knows he's stupid, so that's why he distracts everybody with insults.

You Trump supporters were perfectly happy to cling to polls when Trump were leading them. The fact is that polls show where the race is at. Dismissing them is the ultimate saltiness. I mean, what are you going by? Your gut? lol.

How long are you guys going to keep saying "Trump hasn't even started"? What is he waiting for? it seems that he's more busy getting started on himself by foolishly shooting himself in the foot than going after Hillary. He has shown himself to be utterly incapable of capitalizing on Hillary's bad news cycles. When the FBI rebuke of Hillary came out, he decided to draw attention back to himself by praising Sadam Hussien and whining about the Star of David controversy. What makes you think this idiot is going to do a good job of going after her? But if you're clueless enough to think bringing up Bill's BJ is somehow a good attack, maybe you can't be expected to show good judgment on this issue.

It's possible that leaked emails could hurt her, but if you're counting on that, that just shows that you're not in a position of strength.

Is Trump already damage controlling the general election?

According to that article trump said that clinton had a hard time putting bernie away when in reality she was already guaranteed to get the democratic nomination in early march and beat him by over 10% and a few hundred delegates in the end. Bernie just stayed in the race until early june so people could decide who would be the nominee for the democratic party in all 50 states, dc and some of the US territories like Guam, Puetro Rico and etc. I heard similar things from trump supporters on other sites about hilary rigging the election recently. People's reaction to trump losing probably won't be great in the first few days after the election.

Trump is not going to win. Dude is crazy.

I seriously doubt that Trump will ever get Hillary rattled in fact I imagine that it will be quite the opposite. The thin skinned egomaniac can't let any criticism of him go unchallenged and he feels he needs to lash out at anything including the parents of a deceased soldier which is just pathetic. He clearly does not have the temperament to be President.

That's what they said about Brexit.

The OP listed those major polls, they have now shifted in Hillary's favor - objectively. If you disagree, provide citation.

You far right guys sure do put your feelings over data.

Also, this thread's title is one word away from a, "That's what she said," joke. I demand it be changed.

Polling trends do not look like brexit. If you followed the federal election last year in Canada polling trends look more like that one, but instead of two political parties having a higher ceiling in the polls than the conservative party which was what was noticed in the federal election in Canada mostly Hilary is the one with the higher ceiling in the polls while trump is the one with the low ceiling.

Can we have stickied thread about Clinton and Trump already? I can't imagine what the clutter will look like in 1-2 months.

Brexit was a razor thing margin though and that's British polling anyway. They're notoriously shit and got the last election completely wrong too.

My point is not that Trump will win (or that it's even likely). It's that he could win, especially if people become complacent or do something dumb like the Brexit voters who didn't actually want a Brexit but who voted for one because they wanted to send a message and were sure the margin would cover them.