Clinton's bounce is bigger than Trump's so far

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mattbbpl

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#51 mattbbpl
Member since 2006 • 23354 Posts

@SOedipus said:

Can we have stickied thread about Clinton and Trump already? I can't imagine what the clutter will look like in 1-2 months.

A single thread to house every discussion about the presidential election would be a disaster.

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super600

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#52  Edited By super600  Moderator
Member since 2007 • 33160 Posts

@mattbbpl said:
@super600 said:
@mattbbpl said:
@sonicare said:

Trump is not going to win. Dude is crazy.

That's what they said about Brexit.

Polling trends do not look like brexit. If you followed the federal election last year in Canada polling trends look more like that one, but instead of two political parties having a higher ceiling in the polls than the conservative party which was what was noticed in the federal election in Canada mostly Hilary is the one with the higher ceiling in the polls while trump is the one with the low ceiling.

My point is not that Trump will win (or that it's even likely). It's that he could win, especially if people become complacent or do something dumb like the Brexit voters who didn't actually want a Brexit but who voted for one because they wanted to send a message and were sure the margin would cover them.

Yes. There are aspects of the US election similar to brexit, but like i said you can't look at the polls and compare it to breexit.i don't think leave ever had a low ceiling in polls.

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mattbbpl

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#53 mattbbpl
Member since 2006 • 23354 Posts

@super600: Well, here's hoping for the best. Hope you're right and the election ends up not even being close.

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super600

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#54  Edited By super600  Moderator
Member since 2007 • 33160 Posts

@mattbbpl said:
@SOedipus said:

Can we have stickied thread about Clinton and Trump already? I can't imagine what the clutter will look like in 1-2 months.

A single thread to house every discussion about the presidential election would be a disaster.

A sticky to talk about important events like the debates when they happen and election day would probably be better than a thread dedicated to the discussion of the US election daily.

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Doozie78

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#55 Doozie78
Member since 2014 • 1123 Posts

As if anything on mainstream TV is honest. Hillary has only made it as far as she has by cheating like a complete scoundrel. This shits going to catch up to her soon.

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Jag85

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#56 Jag85
Member since 2005 • 20672 Posts
@Jakejack said:

@Jag85: It's also bizarre to exploit the death of your son for an election. People are way more offended by Trump's words than muslims decapitating priests in France.

"Decapitating a priest is ok, just don't defend yourself when someone exploits the death of their son during an election. That's going to make me have to hide in my safe space!"

Not surprised by this response either. Comments like this is exactly the same kind of shit that Trump says all the time. And that's the reason why he's losing in the polls. Go figure.

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Shmiity

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#57 Shmiity
Member since 2006 • 6625 Posts

I don't know how anyone could vote Trump after watching the DNC and/or reading the democratic platform. Trump/Pence is such a joke- anti-LGBT, racist infused, "BRING JORBS BACK" nonsense. I found the DNC to be pretty inspiring, TBH. Michelle Obama's quote of being a black first lady in a house built by slaves.. pretty powerful stuff.

All grandstanding aside- the DNC put forward a positive, concise vision for the USA, while the GOP put forward hate and negativity. No brainer, dudes. Hate Hillary as much as you want- she's going to be a successful POTUS with this team around her.

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SarahF

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#58 SarahF
Member since 2015 • 182 Posts

Polls don't count is what Romney voters were saying when polling showed Obama winning weeks ahead of the election. Debates didn't count either when Obama woke up from his nap and brutalized Mitt two in a row.

Polls accurately predicted Trump winning the nomination, people who were anti trump said they didn't count. Talk about how this isn't a typical election all you want, polls are still working as intended. Romney lost because he polled so bad with women and minorities. Trump is polling EVEN WORSE with those two groups.

Trump will lose, RNC will do a post mortem, will ignore the post mortem, nominate Cruz, and lose a fourth white house bid in a row.

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deactivated-5f9e3c6a83e51

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#59 deactivated-5f9e3c6a83e51
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@sarahf said:

Polls don't count is what Romney voters were saying when polling showed Obama winning weeks ahead of the election. Debates didn't count either when Obama woke up from his nap and brutalized Mitt two in a row.

Polls accurately predicted Trump winning the nomination, people who were anti trump said they didn't count. Talk about how this isn't a typical election all you want, polls are still working as intended. Romney lost because he polled so bad with women and minorities. Trump is polling EVEN WORSE with those two groups.

Trump will lose, RNC will do a post mortem, will ignore the post mortem, nominate Cruz, and lose a fourth white house bid in a row.

He's not even fully supported by his own party. He's not going to win. If he does, I'll go swimming in the water in Rio.

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#60 deactivated-5f9e3c6a83e51
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@Shmiity said:

I don't know how anyone could vote Trump after watching the DNC and/or reading the democratic platform. Trump/Pence is such a joke- anti-LGBT, racist infused, "BRING JORBS BACK" nonsense. I found the DNC to be pretty inspiring, TBH. Michelle Obama's quote of being a black first lady in a house built by slaves.. pretty powerful stuff.

All grandstanding aside- the DNC put forward a positive, concise vision for the USA, while the GOP put forward hate and negativity. No brainer, dudes. Hate Hillary as much as you want- she's going to be a successful POTUS with this team around her.

I thought that was a great moment too, until Hillary ruined it by saying, "Go fetch my slippers, Michelle"

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KittenNose

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#61 KittenNose
Member since 2014 • 2470 Posts

All the top political minds looked at the "facts" and concluded that Trump could never be a serious contender. They then look at all the "facts" and concluded that Trump could never win enough primaries to become the GOP's nominee. They looked at all the "facts" and concluded that Trump could never poll better then Hillary.

I am pretty sure looking at these facts it is pretty easy to conclude that the people that claim to know what is going on in politics these days are full of crap. Vote, and get your friends to vote.

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mattbbpl

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#62  Edited By mattbbpl
Member since 2006 • 23354 Posts

@sarahf said:

Trump will lose, RNC will do a post mortem, will ignore the post mortem, nominate Cruz, and lose a fourth white house bid in a row.

LOL. Shortly after Cruz dropped out, there were a series of articles lamenting the occurrence because a number of party leaders were hoping this would be the cycle when the hardcore conservatives lost with one of their own candidates. The fear was that Trump will be brushed off as an aberration and then they'll have to endure a Cruz nomination/loss next cycle before the base regains its sanity.

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GreySeal9

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#63  Edited By GreySeal9
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@kittennose said:

All the top political minds looked at the "facts" and concluded that Trump could never be a serious contender. They then look at all the "facts" and concluded that Trump could never win enough primaries to become the GOP's nominee.

This is not true. The people who continued to deny that Trump was on track to win the nomination were ignoring the polls, which are not necessarily facts, but are the closest one can get to an objective measure of a candidate's support.

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Jag85

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#64 Jag85
Member since 2005 • 20672 Posts

Clinton's lead over Trump grows in new national polls

August 4, 2016

Hillary Clinton has widened her lead over Donald Trump in a pair of new national polls published on Thursday, as the Republican nominee ends one of the worst weeks of his campaign.

Clinton opened up a 15-point margin in the McClatchy-Marist survey, 48% to 33%, which was conducted as Trump feuded publicly first with the Muslim parents of a slain American war hero and then House Speaker Paul Ryan, one of the GOP's most popular and powerful figures.

Last month, Clinton held a narrow 3-point advantage, 42%-39% in a McClatchy-Marist poll.

In an NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll, Clinton's edge is 9 points (47% to 38%), cushioning what was a 5-point advantage in early July. A CNN/ORC poll this week showed Clinton with a similar 9-point edge over Trump nationally.

The added option of third-party candidates Jill Stein and Gary Johnson had little effect on the head-to-head spreads. In the McClatchy-Marist poll, Clinton's lead shrunk by only 1 point, while she retained an identical 9-point lead in the NBC-WSJ survey.

The results mark the latest in a string of national and battleground state polls showing Clinton with a growing base of support and, on Thursday, hints that she could be making inroads with male voters.

Clinton nearly tied Trump among men in the NBC-WSJ poll and enjoys a 22-point swing -- she now leads by 8 points -- in the McClatchy-Marist survey. With women, she continues to enjoy an overwhelming advantage -- 50% to 30% according to McClatchy-Marist and 51% to 35% in the NBC-WSJ results.

Arizona Sen. Jeff Sessions, a longtime Trump ally, told CNN Thursday night he didn't believe the flagging numbers were permanent, attributing them to a post-Democratic National Convention bounce and "some events" that have occurred in the past week. Trump has recently feuded with the Muslim family of a slain US soldier and infuriated the Republican establishment by not endorsing House Speaker Paul Ryan.

"Donald Trump is a campaigner and a warrior," Sessions told CNN's Erin Burnett on "OutFront." "The numbers had him up not long ago. He's down some now and I think you'll see a rebound, no doubt about it, heading into November."

The NBC-WSJ poll of 800 registered voters had a margin of error of 3.5%. It was conducted from July 31 to August 3.

The McClatchy-Marist survey reached 983 registered voters between August 1-3 and was statistically significant within 3.1%.

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deactivated-5e9044657a310

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#65  Edited By deactivated-5e9044657a310
Member since 2005 • 8136 Posts

He's 10 points down at Fox News.

Fox News polls had Romney winning, and Trump is 10 points down.

Trumps a loser.

Bu...Bu...Bu... Ben Ghazi said a lot of people come to his rallies!!!