What are we using as the definition of "aliens"? That term could mean:
1. Any life elsewhere in the universe (i.e. bacteria)
2. Complex intelligent life that have formed or will go on to form civilizations elsewhere in the universe
3. Extraterrestrials that have visited Earth and have come in contact with humans (i.e. UFO's, abductions, working with governments, coverups)
Depending on which of those definitions you use the odds vary immensely.
1 almost certainly exisits (> 95% chance)
3 almost certainly doesn't exisit ( << 1% chance)
2 is the wildcard. Its the one everyone wants to know. I'm of the opinion that there are probably other civilizations out there, BUT they are far less frequent than what might be expected given the size of the universe. They are far from an absolute certainty anyways, and due to the of the size of the Universe they will be impossible to contact.
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