Roulette at a casino... guaranteed money with this game?

dunno if they let u do this at a casino

say u start with 500$. black or red 50-50 chance at doubling your money.

u put 100$ down on red, say u win, u get back 200$ for a total of 700$. u made a profit of 200$

u put down 100$ on red, say u lose, youre back to 600$

on your 3rd spin, since you lost the last spin, you put down 200$, leaving u at 500$. 100$ for the $ u lost and 100$ as a bet

so... u put 200$ on red, say u win...you get back 400$ =  800$ in total, profit of 300$

so... every time u lose you put 100$ for everytime the other color won, plus 100$ as your own bet...sooner or later your color has to come in, youll gain 100$ when ever it does...

i bet this is like the oldest trick in the book, i dunno  

ya i put 700 insead of 600 i messed up on it, anyways 

its a 50-50 chance.. how many times can 1 color come in? RED isnt going to come in 10 times in a row.

why is it that im playing roulette right now online and i made 500$ into 3000$ in 30min? by doing this 

why is it that im playing roulette right now online and i made 500$ into 3000$ in 30min? by doing this

LawLo_O

ya i put 700 insead of 600 i messed up on it, anyways

its a 50-50 chance.. how many times can 1 color come in? RED isnt going to come in 10 times in a row.

why is it that im playing roulette right now online and i made 500$ into 3000$ in 30min? by doing this

LawLo_O

No, there are no guaranteed wins at any casino, unless maybe that casino has other things that you will spend your money on such as food, hotel...

Say it does just go 50/50, if you put down $100 on every spin, you'd end up with exactly what you started with... You either lose $100 or profit $100...

Now, that's if it goes 50/50.  There's no guarantee that it'll do that.  You could very easily lose 20 times in a row.  Every spin has the same 50/50 chance no matter what the last times were (i.e., even if there's been 20 reds in a row, the next one is just as likely to be red as any other).  There's no magic law of randomness that guarantees that the odds will play out the way they're supposed to (in fact, scientists have proven that things tend to happen in streaks), so you're probably gonna walk out of there having lost money.

[QUOTE="LawLo_O"]

ya i put 700 insead of 600 i messed up on it, anyways

its a 50-50 chance.. how many times can 1 color come in? RED isnt going to come in 10 times in a row.

why is it that im playing roulette right now online and i made 500$ into 3000$ in 30min? by doing this

Mumbles527

im just saying if this is OK to do...

i dont care if other people do it, im just doing it for fun on yahoo games or MSN. i got by 100$ and it works EVERYTIME.. and the more i loose the better of a chance i have of winning...

dont pay attention to this stupid little trick im doing...im just putting it out there, but i bet it would work the same at Vegas 

dunno if they let u do this at a casino

say u start with 500$. black or red 50-50 chance at doubling your money.

u put 100$ down on red, say u win, u get back 200$ for a total of 700$. u made a profit of 200$

u put down 100$ on red, say u lose, youre back to 600$

on your 3rd spin, since you lost the last spin, you put down 200$, leaving u at 500$. 100$ for the $ u lost and 100$ as a bet

so... u put 200$ on red, say u win...you get back 400$ = 800$ in total, profit of 300$

so... every time u lose you put 100$ for everytime the other color won, plus 100$ as your own bet...sooner or later your color has to come in, youll gain 100$ when ever it does...

i bet this is like the oldest trick in the book, i dunno

LawLo_O

Your theory is correct, except for one minor problem: spending limits or max bets.

For simplicities sake, let's use 100 dollar bets like you say.   While you may win in 100 chucks, the chunks that you lose in are exponentially larger.  Let's take a 5 loss streak, for example.

If you win 5 bets in a row, the math is easy, you're +500.

However, if you lose 5 in a row, it's much more --

Bet 1 = 100
Bet 2 = 200
Bet 3 =  500
Bet 4 = 1100
Bet 5 = 2300
For a combined loss of 4200.

And one more loss would get you almost to 10 grand....then 20, then 40.

It wouldn't take that much of a statistical anomoly until you were betting 100 thousand bucks, just to win your 100 back.  ..and casinos have table limits, and I'm sure that your life has limits to how much money you can acquire.

--Dave 

i think its immpossible for a coin to come up heads 20times in a row...

try it

or even 10times in a row, try it... the more one side comes up the better a chance the other side is coming next.

try it 

OP, there is actually a name for your belief (if I understand you correctly) that many people seem to have:  It's called The Gambler's Fallacy.

Landing on red does not increase the chance of it landing on black the next time, just like flipping a coin heads does not make the next flip any more or less likely to be tails.

i think its immpossible for a coin to come up heads 20times in a row...

try it

or even 10times in a row, try it... the more one side comes up the better a chance the other side is coming next.

try it

LawLo_O

That isn't true at all.  Each time theres a 50/50 chance.  You think that because you got 4 tails in a row, theres a better chance that heads will come up next?  Thats just ridiculous and completely illogical.  Its still a 50/50 chance.  The odds don't magically change, the coin doesn't grow more sides with heads on them. 

..and my explanation doesn't even cover the fact that playing the red/black game is not 50/50.  There are two greens that throw off the odds.

--Dave

i think its immpossible for a coin to come up heads 20times in a row...

try it

or even 10times in a row, try it... the more one side comes up the better a chance the other side is coming next.

try it 

LawLo_O

Well, it is highly unlikely for a coin to come up heads 20 times in a row. Actually, to be precise, the odds, assuming a fair coin and toss, are 1 in 2^20 (2 to the 20th power), which is 1 in 1,048,576.  Actually, that is the probablity of flipping any particular 20 length sequence on a coin, including tails every other flip, HHTHHT, or any arbitary sequence.

But you are not betting on 20 spins of the wheel. You are betting on one.  If a coin came up heads 19 times in a row, the odds of the next flip being heads would be 1/2.  It's just that it would be unlikely for the 19 heads in a row to come up in the first place.

Think of it this way:  The probability of events that have already occurred is exactly one, since you already know the outcome.

Anyway, check this out  (sorry, new Gamespot accounts can't post hyperlinks apparently): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

[QUOTE="LawLo_O"]

i think its immpossible for a coin to come up heads 20times in a row...

try it

or even 10times in a row, try it... the more one side comes up the better a chance the other side is coming next.

try it

Mumbles527

That isn't true at all. Each time theres a 50/50 chance. You think that because you got 4 tails in a row, theres a better chance that heads will come up next? Thats just ridiculous and completely illogical. Its still a 50/50 chance. The odds don't magically change, the coin doesn't grow more sides with heads on them.

Not entirely.  Yes there is a 50/50 chance that the next coin flip taken by itself will be heads.  But the odds of getting 5 heads total in a row is 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = or 1/32.  That means that the odds of you getting 5 heads in a row is 1 out of 32.  But yes, the odds of getting heads on one individual flip is 1/2.

My statistics professor taught me last semester exactly how to calculate when to walk away from a bet.  There's a certain amount of money that the casino expects to win on average with every turn of every game.  All they have to do is calculate the odds of you winning, and make sure that the odds of you winning are lower than the odds that you will win before you give them what they're expecting to earn.  

I'll have to brush up my statistics skills before taking them to the casino, but yea, that's the basic idea.  Given enough time, the casino is planning to win a certain amount of cents on every dollar. 

[QUOTE="Mumbles527"][QUOTE="LawLo_O"]

i think its immpossible for a coin to come up heads 20times in a row...

try it

or even 10times in a row, try it... the more one side comes up the better a chance the other side is coming next.

try it

guynamedbilly

That isn't true at all. Each time theres a 50/50 chance. You think that because you got 4 tails in a row, theres a better chance that heads will come up next? Thats just ridiculous and completely illogical. Its still a 50/50 chance. The odds don't magically change, the coin doesn't grow more sides with heads on them.

Not entirely. Yes there is a 50/50 chance that the next coin flip taken by itself will be heads. But the odds of getting 5 heads total in a row is 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = or 1/32. That means that the odds of you getting 5 heads in a row is 1 out of 32. But yes, the odds of getting heads on one individual flip is 1/2.

My statistics professor taught me last semester exactly how to calculate when to walk away from a bet. There's a certain amount of money that the casino expects to win on average with every turn of every game. All they have to do is calculate the odds of you winning, and make sure that the odds of you winning are lower than the odds that you will win before you give them what they're expecting to earn.

I'll have to brush up my statistics skills before taking them to the casino, but yea, that's the basic idea. Given enough time, the casino is planning to win a certain amount of cents on every dollar.

Yeah, but on my 5th bet, I'm not betting on the 4 spins that already happened.  I'm betting on one spin at a time, and each spin would be a 50/50 chance (Actually slightly less because of the green spaces). 

Its all well and good that its improbable for heads to come up 100 times in a row, but on the 101st flip of the coin, the odds are still 50/50 no matter what. 

Past outcomes have absolutely no affect on future attempts. 

Why are we using the arbitrary number of 20?  You'd be in the millions of dollars per bet LONG before that.  ....and the tables would've turned you away long, long before.

If you had an unlimited amount of money and no table limits, the theory would work.  ...but the risk of losing such a substantial amount of money pales in comparison to what you'd make if you kept winning.  It's just not worth it.

Besides, if a skill-less technique like this really worked, the casinos would be full of rich people right now, and I wouldn't have to work. ...but unfortunately, I do.

The best odds in the casino are craps and blackjack, especially if you can count cards.
And even then, counting cards doesn't really increase your odds of winning hands, it just clues you in on when the deck is rich with double-down and blackjack hands, in which case you want to bet larger amounts.

--Dave 

[QUOTE="guynamedbilly"][QUOTE="Mumbles527"][QUOTE="LawLo_O"]

i think its immpossible for a coin to come up heads 20times in a row...

try it

or even 10times in a row, try it... the more one side comes up the better a chance the other side is coming next.

try it

Mumbles527

That isn't true at all. Each time theres a 50/50 chance. You think that because you got 4 tails in a row, theres a better chance that heads will come up next? Thats just ridiculous and completely illogical. Its still a 50/50 chance. The odds don't magically change, the coin doesn't grow more sides with heads on them.

Not entirely. Yes there is a 50/50 chance that the next coin flip taken by itself will be heads. But the odds of getting 5 heads total in a row is 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = or 1/32. That means that the odds of you getting 5 heads in a row is 1 out of 32. But yes, the odds of getting heads on one individual flip is 1/2.

My statistics professor taught me last semester exactly how to calculate when to walk away from a bet. There's a certain amount of money that the casino expects to win on average with every turn of every game. All they have to do is calculate the odds of you winning, and make sure that the odds of you winning are lower than the odds that you will win before you give them what they're expecting to earn.

I'll have to brush up my statistics skills before taking them to the casino, but yea, that's the basic idea. Given enough time, the casino is planning to win a certain amount of cents on every dollar.

Yeah, but on my 5th bet, I'm not betting on the 4 spins that already happened. I'm betting on one spin at a time, and each spin would be a 50/50 chance (Actually slightly less because of the green spaces).

Its all well and good that its improbable for heads to come up 100 times in a row, but on the 101st flip of the coin, the odds are still 50/50 no matter what.

Past outcomes have absolutely no affect on future attempts.

But the original post clearly says 20 times in a row.  I mean, I know what you mean, but that's what he posted. 

My statistics professor taught me last semester exactly how to calculate when to walk away from a bet.  There's a certain amount of money that the casino expects to win on average with every turn of every game.  All they have to do is calculate the odds of you winning, and make sure that the odds of you winning are lower than the odds that you will win before you give them what they're expecting to earn.  

I'll have to brush up my statistics skills before taking them to the casino, but yea, that's the basic idea.  Given enough time, the casino is planning to win a certain amount of cents on every dollar. 

guynamedbilly

Is your statistics professor rich from playing roulette?

Of course not...

[QUOTE="guynamedbilly"]

My statistics professor taught me last semester exactly how to calculate when to walk away from a bet. There's a certain amount of money that the casino expects to win on average with every turn of every game. All they have to do is calculate the odds of you winning, and make sure that the odds of you winning are lower than the odds that you will win before you give them what they're expecting to earn.

I'll have to brush up my statistics skills before taking them to the casino, but yea, that's the basic idea. Given enough time, the casino is planning to win a certain amount of cents on every dollar.

Atman_Do

Is your statistics professor rich from playing roulette?

Of course not...

Huh? I don't understand what you're trying to say. You mean that if he knew gambling tricks of the trade he would not need to teach? Well, maybe you missed that part where I said he taught me when to walk away from a bet.

There is a decent chance that you will come out ahead for a small frame of time when you first start betting. When you start losing money, there is a bubble if you will where that if you lose that much money, you will never walk away with a profit(considering the averages.) If however you make a bet and win, you can keep playing for a short time and still not lose your money.

But the original post clearly says 20 times in a row. I mean, I know what you mean, but that's what he posted.

guynamedbilly

Whether its already happened 20 times, 5 times, or 10 million times, the odds of a single coin flip will always be 50/50. 

The only thing you can do decently at is card games... and most of them are bad.foxhound_fox

I turned 1000 dollars into 40,000 in my cell phone black jack with 500 max bet.

course the odds could be in my favor, but THAT much?

[QUOTE="foxhound_fox"]The only thing you can do decently at is card games... and most of them are bad.Shrapnelled

I turned 1000 dollars into 40,000 in my cell phone black jack with 500 max bet.

course the odds could be in my favor, but THAT much?

I turned $55 into about $5,200 in about 4 or 5 hours playing poker.  That was an awesome night.  And it was real money!

ive been fliping a coin for the last 10min....not once did it land on one side 5 times in a row... it doesnt make sense there has to be some odds of the other side of the coin coming up, if its really 50-50 with every flip, why is it that the sides always go back and forth? i guess it is 50-50 of it landing heads 10x in a row...do u think youll ever see that happen? it never happends
LawLo_O

So then it makes more sense that the coin has some sort of memory that records which side it lands on when you flip it, that way it can use its magic engine to turn itself midair to make sure it doesn't land on the same side too often? 

I never said its a 50 50 chance of it landing on heads 10 times in a row, I said that if it does, the 11th flip will still be a 50/50 chance.  Each individual flip is a 50/50 chance, and thinking otherwise is just silly.

You want to make money in a casino?  Get a job serving drinks.

--Dave 

There is a decent chance that you will come out ahead for a small frame of time when you first start betting. When you start losing money, there is a bubble if you will where that if you lose that much money, you will never walk away with a profit(considering the averages.) If however you make a bet and win, you can keep playing for a short time and still not lose your money. guynamedbilly

It doesn't matter though.  It is still a statistical loss to play at all.  You could just as easily - no, actually slightly more easily - start out losing and never be ahead of where you started. Some people get rich playing the lottery, but that doesn't mean it was a sensible thing to play it in the first place.

In other words, the time to walk away from roulette, assuming you want to come out ahead, is before you make even a single bet.

If you REALLY know what you are doing, it is possible to make money long run being a sports better, although your edge will be very small, and of course we all know that skilled players come out ahead in the long run at poker versus players who are sufficiently less skilled, even with the casino taking a portion of the winnnings, but poker, like sports, isn't entirely a game of chance either.

But winning at a game like roulette?  Well, maybe if you could figure out that the operator is spinning the wheel in a certain way such that the marble is more likely to end up in a particular place on the wheel relative to the last position of the wheel, but that would require a lot of observations and some crazy statistical analysis.  Try getting away with that with the eye in the sky watching you.

ive been fliping a coin for the last 10min....not once did it land on one side 5 times in a row... it doesnt make sense there has to be some odds of the other side of the coin coming up, if its really 50-50 with every flip, why is it that the sides always go back and forth? i guess it is 50-50 of it landing heads 10x in a row...do u think youll ever see that happen? it never happends
LawLo_O

We have said several times that the odds of it happnening 10 times in a row are NOT 50/50.  Here, try the experiment this way:

Keep flipping the coin.  Now every time the coin comes up heads twice in a row or tails twice in a row (You can use three times in a row if you are really patient. Frankly, it doesn't matter), consider the NEXT and only the NEXT flip:  Now, of those flips, count how many of THOSE end up the same.  Over the long run, it will approach 1 of 2 (assuming a fair coin flip of course.)

If you put $100 down and win, you get $200, putting you at $600, not $700. You get your $100 back, plus $100Crimson_Sin

OWNED.  maybe if you didnt tell him he would evetually come to realize that after spending his lifesaving/retirement funds

[QUOTE="LawLo_O"]ive been fliping a coin for the last 10min....not once did it land on one side 5 times in a row... it doesnt make sense there has to be some odds of the other side of the coin coming up, if its really 50-50 with every flip, why is it that the sides always go back and forth? i guess it is 50-50 of it landing heads 10x in a row...do u think youll ever see that happen? it never happends
Mumbles527

So then it makes more sense that the coin has some sort of memory that records which side it lands on when you flip it, that way it can use its magic engine to turn itself midair to make sure it doesn't land on the same side too often?

I lawled :D

When I was tutoring math, this was honestly the most difficult concept to get people to understand.

But if you don't understand it, honestly think about this:  If you flip a coin and get heads, what force is reaching out and making sure that the coin lands on tails the next time?  WHY would the last flip matter? 

ya i put 700 insead of 600 i messed up on it, anyways 

its a 50-50 chance.. how many times can 1 color come in? RED isnt going to come in 10 times in a row.

why is it that im playing roulette right now online and i made 500$ into 3000$ in 30min? by doing this 

LawLo_O

ok, here's why this doesn't actually work.

Ok first off I understand that you're not better a 50/50 shot on a single roll, but your better much better odds that the same result won't come up again and again.

One thing you missed is that you have to double your bet each time to make up for the money you lost.

Initial bet:100

first loss: 200

2nd loss: 400

3rd loss: 800

4th loss: 1600

5th loss: 3200

6th loss: 6400 

also you will only make $100 for each win which is fairly small considering you need to bring 6.4k with you.  Now I'm sure you've never visited a casino, but if you are actually being successful with this method the guy taking bets will actually slow the game down making you become more impatient, and less likely to make as much money.  Also you have to watch out for losing 6 times in a row which happens quite often after 32 games.

Also as somebody already mentioned that there are max bets at most tables and if you want to get rid of that expect your intial bet to be much higher than $100.  My guess is that a table with 100 min bet will have a max bet of anywhere from 1k-5k depending on the place.  You could try running from table to table but I really doubt you'd make any money at the end of the day.