@GazaAli said:
@pook99 said:
@GazaAli said:
@pook99 said:
@GazaAli said:
I don't mean to interpose without knowledge of what's being discussed-and I'm certainly late to the party-but I've heard this cavil so many times that it made me cringe to see it surfacing again. Unless one can prove that a statistical research has been "rigged", I don't understand the point of conjuring this conjecture. We might as well abolish the discipline of statistics altogether since its not impossible to manipulate.
I would understand if someone who studied the research methodology or reviewed the statistical procedure made that point. But to make it right off the bat is just moronic. I'm not necessarily pointing fingers at you pook as this isn't the first time I've seen this point being made here in OT.
not all statistics are irrelevant, but in the issue of welfare fraud, the facts are extremely hard to find and often very fuzzy. I have read statistics that welfare fraud is as low as half a percent and others that say it is as high as 11.5 percent, thats a pretty big gap wouldnt't you agree? The poster on this discussion posted a rather low figure (1.9%) which backed up his point. A bit of searching can give you much higher numbers, if that is the point that you want to make.
So while not all statistics are irrelevant, an issue like this, that is as politically charged as it is, tends to have wildly varying numbers depending on who you ask. I am an advocate of welfare programs, but there needs to be reforms to protect those who really need it and deny those who are abusing it. In the future try and get the context of what is being discussed before just jumping in to a discussion. Part of the reason I was dismissing those statistics are outlined above, the othe reason is they were not relevant to the points being discussed.
Unless you objectively discredited the statistics he cited, my point stands and the context remains irrelevant as you'd still be discrediting research based on the visceral and the anecdotal instead of the objective and the critical. You can't contend the reliability of something based on its possibility of being wrong-until you prove otherwise, or at least intelligently argue against it, the point is moot.
But since you insist on viewing my post in light of the topic, let us analyze. In statistics it is generally accepted that the top and lower 25% of a [potentially] biased distribution are outliers when calculating an accurate range. Going by the range you provided, and assuming a 0.5% step, we can eliminate findings below and above the 3% and 9% respectively. For an issue that is as politically charged as this, this isn't a wide range or a fuzzy spectrum. Note that this is a worst-case scenario as a biased distribution can be biased only at either tails instead of both.
Your still missing the entire point of the discussion. Your focusing on the statistics which was not the point of the discussion in the first place. Having said that the idea that I would need to try and discredit a random statistic posted by a random person from a website is ludicrous. I can post random statistics as well that contradict what the prior poster but it is a waste of time because that is not what the point of the the original discussion was. Of course if you were following the discussion in the first place you may have realized that.
You know, obstinacy isn't a valid discussion strategy. It's true that I interposed, but what I touched on had nothing to do with the subject matter of the discussion. I clarified that from the start yet you chose to make it about the research literature of welfare fraud. Now that I played ball, you're moving away from the research literature. Not that any of this matters as I discussed both and you replied to neither.
and randonmnly changing topics is not a valid discussion strategy either, nor is completely ignoring what the other person is saying, nor is only looking at one set of data and ignoring the loads of contradictory data that exists because it is inconvenient.
Want to really have a discussion? Fine, my original statement that started this whole mess was that the welfare system is in serious need of reform for a number of reasons.
1) The main reason is that it does nothing to improve peoples situations, Often times people on welfare remain on welfare and never change their social status. That is not good, a good welfare system would help people who are struggling financially but also put systems in place to help those people improve their lot in life(ie: mandatory job training programs, job placement, education etc all of which are lacking in our current system)
2) there are many people who need welfare who don't get it, that is a problem and something that needs to be seriously looked at if anyone is serious about creating a welfare system that helps people who are really in need.
3) There is fraud, and people committing this fraud know how to milk the system, as a result needy people and taxpayers suffer. the funny thing about you is you are obsessing over the one statistic that someone posted. Why not do your own research and find some other statistics which completely contradict the one the original poster posted. The fact is there are no accurate statistics which show the amount of fraud that takes place, partly because many who post abut welfare are trying to prove a point(doing some more research I have found studies that say welfare fraud is as high as 25%, doesn't matter if its accurate point is the numbers vary wildly) and partly because there are people who are scamming the system that are not caught so they are not counted among the population of people committing fraud.
If you want to have a discussion about the topic why not answer the question: Do you think the welfare system is in need of reform? Why or why not? Of course you can choose to ignore this and focus on one random statistic, thus completely ignoring the hundreds of other contradictory statistics and the actual topic being discussed.
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