Screw the poor, start a war.

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horgen

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#51 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 127733 Posts

@pook99 said:
@mattbbpl said:
@pook99 said:

@aljosa23: The funny thing about statistics are that they are extremely easy to manipulate to make just about any point that you want. If you really believe everything you posted to be 100% true than you are as naive as I said you were. The fact is there is a ton of fraud going on that the government does not know about so of course the numbers you posted are as low as they are. People in the welfare offices often sit around and trade tips on ways to beat the system and the end result is that people who are in real need of assistance get screwed and a bunch of lowlifes driving around in beemers are milking the system for all its worth,

I think idealogically we agree that these programs are necessary and can potentially be vey helpful to those in need, the reason I call you naive (which is not meant to be an insult) is because you seem to believe that the programs are working exactly as intended, even going as far ro print government statistics to make your point. But the sad reality is those statistics do not reflect the reality of what is going on in the world, or at the very least what is going on where I am from (New York).

Just out of curiousity, where are you from? and do you have any experience with welfare programs outside of idealogy?

And deriding statistics in favor of personal analogies gives one free reign to make whatever unsubstantiated claims they want.

Statistics combined with a transparent methodology can be very revealing and reliable. An adequately transparent methodology (which most reputable statisticians provide as part of their study) removes most of the ambiguity you refer to.

Granted, people like Maddow or Limbaugh can ignore the methodology, but that's not an indictment of statistics - it's just dishonest.

and you are assuming the government is transparent? That is a terrible assumption to make, and it is not just the talking heads that ignore the methodology, the government does all the time. Just look at the "emplyoment" statistics that no longer count people who do not receive benefits, yet many of these people are still unemployed.

If you really believe that there is as little corruption in the welfare systems as those statistics point out and that the government is honest and transparent with their figures than I don't know what to tell you.

Show more than anecdotes... We all have stories of people abusing welfare systems. But how many are they really?

You mentioned some worked illegally on the side. Now if that was work bringing in a lot of money on a regular basis, surely it would be picked up somewhere that someone on welfare owns way more than what is logically fine for someone in that situation?

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mattbbpl

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#52  Edited By mattbbpl
Member since 2006 • 23350 Posts

@pook99 said:
@mattbbpl said:
@pook99 said:

@aljosa23: The funny thing about statistics are that they are extremely easy to manipulate to make just about any point that you want. If you really believe everything you posted to be 100% true than you are as naive as I said you were. The fact is there is a ton of fraud going on that the government does not know about so of course the numbers you posted are as low as they are. People in the welfare offices often sit around and trade tips on ways to beat the system and the end result is that people who are in real need of assistance get screwed and a bunch of lowlifes driving around in beemers are milking the system for all its worth,

I think idealogically we agree that these programs are necessary and can potentially be vey helpful to those in need, the reason I call you naive (which is not meant to be an insult) is because you seem to believe that the programs are working exactly as intended, even going as far ro print government statistics to make your point. But the sad reality is those statistics do not reflect the reality of what is going on in the world, or at the very least what is going on where I am from (New York).

Just out of curiousity, where are you from? and do you have any experience with welfare programs outside of idealogy?

And deriding statistics in favor of personal analogies gives one free reign to make whatever unsubstantiated claims they want.

Statistics combined with a transparent methodology can be very revealing and reliable. An adequately transparent methodology (which most reputable statisticians provide as part of their study) removes most of the ambiguity you refer to.

Granted, people like Maddow or Limbaugh can ignore the methodology, but that's not an indictment of statistics - it's just dishonest.

and you are assuming the government is transparent? That is a terrible assumption to make, and it is not just the talking heads that ignore the methodology, the government does all the time. Just look at the "emplyoment" statistics that no longer count people who do not receive benefits, yet many of these people are still unemployed.

If you really believe that there is as little corruption in the welfare systems as those statistics point out and that the government is honest and transparent with their figures than I don't know what to tell you.

I'm not sure where you got that I was assuming "the government" was transparent. I was referring to your statement about statistics generally, but I did take a look at one of the GAO links Aljosa provided and it does seem to be pretty well cited at first glance (and links to additional well-cited studies at that, so it seems to be pretty deep).

The employment statistics that you imply are fraudulent are a great example of statistics being thorough, transparent in methodology..... and completely misunderstood by the conspiracy theorists out there (and misrepresented by those who look to take advantage of them). The unemployment statistics are not a single number - they are a wide range of numbers whose methodologies of calculation are very transparent and well known.

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N64DD

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#53  Edited By N64DD
Member since 2015 • 13167 Posts

@Jankarcop said:

What republican doesn't love the prospect of potentially blowing up some brown kids!?

How are you not banned yet?

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Jankarcop

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#54  Edited By Jankarcop
Member since 2011 • 11058 Posts

@n64dd said:
@Jankarcop said:

What republican doesn't love the prospect of potentially blowing up some brown kids!?

How are you not banned yet?

For insulting republicans for their pro-war behavior which typically results in (non-white)casualties?

Maybe I shouldn't have put it in a form of a satirical rhetorical question, for all the PC clowns and SJWs.

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N64DD

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#55 N64DD
Member since 2015 • 13167 Posts

@Jankarcop said:
@n64dd said:
@Jankarcop said:

What republican doesn't love the prospect of potentially blowing up some brown kids!?

How are you not banned yet?

For insulting republicans for their pro-war behavior which typically results in (non-white)casualties?

Maybe I shouldn't have put it in a form of a satirical rhetorical question, for all the PC clowns and SJWs.

Non-white casualities?? You know we lost people? including some of my friends? Instead of being a little kid who doesn't know shit about the real world, grow a pair and stop being a racist stereotyping asshole?

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Jankarcop

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#56  Edited By Jankarcop
Member since 2011 • 11058 Posts

@n64dd said:
@Jankarcop said:
@n64dd said:
@Jankarcop said:

What republican doesn't love the prospect of potentially blowing up some brown kids!?

How are you not banned yet?

For insulting republicans for their pro-war behavior which typically results in (non-white)casualties?

Maybe I shouldn't have put it in a form of a satirical rhetorical question, for all the PC clowns and SJWs.

Non-white casualities?? You know we lost people? including some of my friends? Instead of being a little kid who doesn't know shit about the real world, grow a pair and stop being a racist stereotyping asshole?

What the hell are you going on about?

Republicans love starting wars in the middle-east, that was my point. How is that racist?

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deactivated-59d151f079814

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#57 deactivated-59d151f079814
Member since 2003 • 47239 Posts

@horgen said:
@pook99 said:
@mattbbpl said:
@pook99 said:

@aljosa23: The funny thing about statistics are that they are extremely easy to manipulate to make just about any point that you want. If you really believe everything you posted to be 100% true than you are as naive as I said you were. The fact is there is a ton of fraud going on that the government does not know about so of course the numbers you posted are as low as they are. People in the welfare offices often sit around and trade tips on ways to beat the system and the end result is that people who are in real need of assistance get screwed and a bunch of lowlifes driving around in beemers are milking the system for all its worth,

I think idealogically we agree that these programs are necessary and can potentially be vey helpful to those in need, the reason I call you naive (which is not meant to be an insult) is because you seem to believe that the programs are working exactly as intended, even going as far ro print government statistics to make your point. But the sad reality is those statistics do not reflect the reality of what is going on in the world, or at the very least what is going on where I am from (New York).

Just out of curiousity, where are you from? and do you have any experience with welfare programs outside of idealogy?

And deriding statistics in favor of personal analogies gives one free reign to make whatever unsubstantiated claims they want.

Statistics combined with a transparent methodology can be very revealing and reliable. An adequately transparent methodology (which most reputable statisticians provide as part of their study) removes most of the ambiguity you refer to.

Granted, people like Maddow or Limbaugh can ignore the methodology, but that's not an indictment of statistics - it's just dishonest.

and you are assuming the government is transparent? That is a terrible assumption to make, and it is not just the talking heads that ignore the methodology, the government does all the time. Just look at the "emplyoment" statistics that no longer count people who do not receive benefits, yet many of these people are still unemployed.

If you really believe that there is as little corruption in the welfare systems as those statistics point out and that the government is honest and transparent with their figures than I don't know what to tell you.

Show more than anecdotes... We all have stories of people abusing welfare systems. But how many are they really?

You mentioned some worked illegally on the side. Now if that was work bringing in a lot of money on a regular basis, surely it would be picked up somewhere that someone on welfare owns way more than what is logically fine for someone in that situation?

Obviously some people abuse it.. But the fact of the matter is they are a drop in the bucket compared to the massive abuse by corporations within the United States.. Look at the fucking Haiti relief effort recently btw.. Just recently evidence surfaced in that hardly anything has been done to aid the people there, and much of the money was either pocketed by contractors, or were used to build vacation areas in the country..

Take a look at the abuse by contracting corporations like Haliburton in Iraq War basically ripping off the US government with outrageous costs with in return substandard services..

See here is the thing the poor are not some how getting more powerful in this country, they are not sucking the country dry, or condensing the wealth.. They do not have a immense hold on our political system.. Corporate America does.. Let me repost my quote by Jason Read.. "People who dismiss the unemployed and dependent as "parasites" fail to understand economics and parasitism. A successful parasite is one that is not recognized by the its host, one that can make its host work for it without appear as a burden. Such is the ruling class in capitalist society."..

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TheWalkingGhost

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#58 TheWalkingGhost
Member since 2012 • 6092 Posts

@StrifeDelivery said:
@TheWalkingGhost said:
@StrifeDelivery said:

Oh ok, gotcha. But does the military really need that extra 90 billion? If anything, they should be cut back not increased. (I'm not saying whether or not you agree with the military needing that extra 90 billion, I'm just throwing my opinion into the ring).

It doesn't even need the 594 plus billion it has. Repukes are just war hawks who want to bomb this crap out of the middle east.

I agree that it should be cut back, I mentioned it even. It is one thing to have an active military force, it is another to have one that is becoming unsustainable.

Agreed, we are spending like its world war 3 and it's not. When defense spending gets to bloated it becomes a massive drain on the economy.

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TheWalkingGhost

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#60 TheWalkingGhost
Member since 2012 • 6092 Posts

@jdc6305 said:
@TheWalkingGhost said:
@jdc6305 said:
@jun_aka_pekto said:

Ah, food stamps. Reminds me of the time I was at a Lucky's Supermarket in Florida. A big fat mama nearly ran me over trying to get first to the cashier with two full carts of groceries. I let it go after seeing her pay for the groceries with food stamps. Then, I saw her outside piling in the groceries into the trunk of a brand, spanking new Lexus.

Yeah heard that one a million times. I'm disabled and collect food stamps. I use to love when people watched me drive off in brand new Jaguar XK8. I was living with my parents for about a year and my step dad use to let me borrow his car to go grocery shopping.

One day I was ringing my food up and I paid with a food stamp card. There was a guy behind me in line with a business suit on. He was mumbling under his breath and he brushed into me very rudely. I saw him in the parking lot getting into a piece of junk car and he watched me get into a brand new Jaguar. The look on his face was priceless.

Vets and disabled people get food stamps too. I get about $190 a month and no I don't buy lobster and steak with it. My food stamps have to last me an entire month. I have paranoid schizophrenia and multiple sclerosis.

*Puts on Republican hat* GET A DAMN JOB AND STOP LIVING OFF MAH TAX DOLLARS YOU INGRATE!

I get $900 month from disability. I worked for 10 years making $22 an hour trust me if I could I'd rather work. I now make in a month what I use to make in a week. There will come a day you might not be able to work. You're not going to enjoy living off the peanuts the government throws your way. Better hope you don't get injured or become ill. Living in the most expensive country on the planet as a second class citizen isn't fun. Going from $60k a year to $10k a year isn't a pleasant experience especially loosing everything you worked for.

I was joking dude. That was a sarcastic jab at Republicans not you. And my father lived off disability for the final 11 years of his life, most of his money came from his former business.

And I hope you don't live in the USA, as this is NOT the most expensive country on the planet. Try going to Yemen if you want some real high food prices.

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JimB

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#61  Edited By JimB
Member since 2002 • 3925 Posts

@Jankarcop: Better someone else's kids than ours.

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Jankarcop

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#62 Jankarcop
Member since 2011 • 11058 Posts

@JimB said:

@Jankarcop: Better someone else's kids than ours.

Yeah cuase those kids with a bunch of rocks are surely going to topple Murica'

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ReadingRainbow4

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#63  Edited By ReadingRainbow4
Member since 2012 • 18733 Posts

Remember when there was a middle class?

I'm sorry but if you were born into a nice upper class family with a box of fine silver tableware crammed up your ass, you shouldn't be speaking on social issues involving those with less. Not everyone on EBT is a lazy piece of shit, times have changed.

**** them.

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TheWalkingGhost

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#64  Edited By TheWalkingGhost
Member since 2012 • 6092 Posts

@Jankarcop said:
@JimB said:

@Jankarcop: Better someone else's kids than ours.

Yeah cuase those kids with a bunch of rocks are surely going to topple Murica'

Are you being serious with anything you say?

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JimB

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#65 JimB
Member since 2002 • 3925 Posts

@TheWalkingGhost: This whole thread is stupid. The mind set of the individuals who start a thread like this and support have know idea what they are talking about or know history or current events. If they had the sense God gave a tumble bug they would know better.

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pook99

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#66 pook99
Member since 2014 • 915 Posts

@sSubZerOo: I'm not disagreeing with the things you said, but I don't get how its relevant to the topic. If you read my posts I have said that welfare programs are necessary but are being abused and are in need of reform. The problem with welfare as it stands now is it does not help people move on with their live, in fact being on welfare often keeps people down. People on welfare figiure out how to milk the system and because they can, they do. As a result we have a system that does not help people, a good system of welfare would force people to enter the workforce at some point, and assist them in doing so. What we have now is a joke, it is easy to milk for those who want to and does little to give real assistance to those who need it(whether they want it or not)

The rest of the stuff you said, while I mostly agree with, is not what is being discussed on this thread, do you agree with me that the welfare system is in need of reform?

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#67 br0kenrabbit  Online
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@JimB said:

@TheWalkingGhost: This whole thread is stupid. The mind set of the individuals who start a thread like this and support have know idea what they are talking about or know history or current events. If they had the sense God gave a tumble bug they would know better.

The creator of this thread knows the difference between 'no' and 'know'.

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deactivated-59d151f079814

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#68 deactivated-59d151f079814
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@pook99 said:

@sSubZerOo: I'm not disagreeing with the things you said, but I don't get how its relevant to the topic. If you read my posts I have said that welfare programs are necessary but are being abused and are in need of reform. The problem with welfare as it stands now is it does not help people move on with their live, in fact being on welfare often keeps people down. People on welfare figiure out how to milk the system and because they can, they do. As a result we have a system that does not help people, a good system of welfare would force people to enter the workforce at some point, and assist them in doing so. What we have now is a joke, it is easy to milk for those who want to and does little to give real assistance to those who need it(whether they want it or not)

The rest of the stuff you said, while I mostly agree with, is not what is being discussed on this thread, do you agree with me that the welfare system is in need of reform?

... We have people who are in the work force on welfare.. In fact Walmart is infamous in keeping worker wages low and promote them to use government welfare.... My point is, the people who are gaming the system are minor compared to the far larger issues out there if you want to talk about parasites, those being corporations..

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MakeMeaSammitch

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#69  Edited By MakeMeaSammitch
Member since 2012 • 4889 Posts

Republicans dont care about the poor and middle class

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MakeMeaSammitch

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#70 MakeMeaSammitch
Member since 2012 • 4889 Posts

@TheWalkingGhost said:
@StrifeDelivery said:

Oh ok, gotcha. But does the military really need that extra 90 billion? If anything, they should be cut back not increased. (I'm not saying whether or not you agree with the military needing that extra 90 billion, I'm just throwing my opinion into the ring).

It doesn't even need the 594 plus billion it has. Repukes are just war hawks who want to bomb this crap out of the middle east.

Clearly you've never worked in the military. As of right now, the military is severely underfunded and under manned, I've seen teams of 15 doing the work of 25 to 30 people, and that's not at all uncommon. On top of that, the military doesn't have enough money for it's efforts in the Pacific where there has been a big shift in activity in recent years.

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#71 gamerguru100
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@MakeMeaSammitch said:
@TheWalkingGhost said:
@StrifeDelivery said:

Oh ok, gotcha. But does the military really need that extra 90 billion? If anything, they should be cut back not increased. (I'm not saying whether or not you agree with the military needing that extra 90 billion, I'm just throwing my opinion into the ring).

It doesn't even need the 594 plus billion it has. Repukes are just war hawks who want to bomb this crap out of the middle east.

Clearly you've never worked in the military. As of right now, the military is severely underfunded and under manned, I've seen teams of 15 doing the work of 25 to 30 people, and that's not at all uncommon. On top of that, the military doesn't have enough money for it's efforts in the Pacific where there has been a big shift in activity in recent years.

How the flying hell is the military underfunded and under manned when we're pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into it? Oh, wait. Corruption. Duh.

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MakeMeaSammitch

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#72 MakeMeaSammitch
Member since 2012 • 4889 Posts

@gamerguru100 said:
@MakeMeaSammitch said:
@TheWalkingGhost said:
@StrifeDelivery said:

Oh ok, gotcha. But does the military really need that extra 90 billion? If anything, they should be cut back not increased. (I'm not saying whether or not you agree with the military needing that extra 90 billion, I'm just throwing my opinion into the ring).

It doesn't even need the 594 plus billion it has. Repukes are just war hawks who want to bomb this crap out of the middle east.

Clearly you've never worked in the military. As of right now, the military is severely underfunded and under manned, I've seen teams of 15 doing the work of 25 to 30 people, and that's not at all uncommon. On top of that, the military doesn't have enough money for it's efforts in the Pacific where there has been a big shift in activity in recent years.

How the flying hell is the military underfunded and under manned when we're pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into it? Oh, wait. Corruption. Duh.

Because weapons, bases and deployment are expensive? That much seems pretty obvious.

The military has very little corruption in it compared to other areas. Integrity and discipline are big areas of focus.

I'm know there are areas where there is a lot of waste, but it's more on the side of bad planning, not corruption.

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deactivated-5b1e62582e305

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#73  Edited By deactivated-5b1e62582e305
Member since 2004 • 30778 Posts

@pook99 said:

@aljosa23: The funny thing about statistics are that they are extremely easy to manipulate to make just about any point that you want. If you really believe everything you posted to be 100% true than you are as naive as I said you were. The fact is there is a ton of fraud going on that the government does not know about so of course the numbers you posted are as low as they are. People in the welfare offices often sit around and trade tips on ways to beat the system and the end result is that people who are in real need of assistance get screwed and a bunch of lowlifes driving around in beemers are milking the system for all its worth,

I think idealogically we agree that these programs are necessary and can potentially be vey helpful to those in need, the reason I call you naive (which is not meant to be an insult) is because you seem to believe that the programs are working exactly as intended, even going as far ro print government statistics to make your point. But the sad reality is those statistics do not reflect the reality of what is going on in the world, or at the very least what is going on where I am from (New York).

Just out of curiousity, where are you from? and do you have any experience with welfare programs outside of idealogy?

I didn't know presenting facts constitutes as ideology. If you're just going to bring up conjecture and more anecdotes this conversation is pointless.

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#74 bmanva
Member since 2002 • 4680 Posts
@Aljosa23 said:
@bmanva said:
@Aljosa23 said:
@bmanva said:

welfare programs are shitty way to spend taxpayer dollars.

How did you come to this conclusion?

I'm specifically talking about ones that offer federal subsidies for living expenses. I feel like that takes away people's incentive to be independent and degrades work ethics.

It's actually quite the opposite - no one WANTS to be on programs like TANF and SNAP, it is seen as a last resort and with how the poor are stigmatized these days it is even less pleasant. For one, to even qualify for these programs you need to be working or actively looking for work. The only ones who live off social welfare programs are the elderly and disabled and I think we can both agree that cutting benefits for them would be a disaster. The idea of a "welfare queen" is a myth and these benefits don't provide enough to live on them alone - it's meant to be a supplement to one's income. Vast majority of recipients are low income individuals needing help to get by and these government programs are good ways to get help rather than go to more shady sources like payday loan stores.

Contrary to popular belief welfare and other programs like unemployment benefits are the most effective form of government stimulus simply because it's money that directly goes to individuals that on average spend more of their money simply because they have to. Thus helping grow the economy. It's the same idea behind why tax cuts for the middle class will improve the economy - because that group of people uses that extra income to use, whereas rich individuals are more likely to pocket it into a bank.

I don't know how you can generalize what one million individual want for themselves. And it's seen as a last resort by whom? For vast majority of impoverished inner cities population, federal subsidy is a fact of life. I would go as far to say that today's youth culture respect someone who work for living less than someone who game the system. As with most government programs, there are simply not a lot of scrutiny on qualification the individual recipients. I don't believe living on welfare is a myth; I think you underestimated how cheaply you can sustain yourself in some states. The point of contention has always been whether you can live comfortably or well on welfare compare to working not whether you can survive on welfare.

I'm not debating on whether budget spent on welfare is actually going to the individuals, so the graphs and statistics comparing various Federal subsidies are moot. I don't care that the help is getting to the individuals instead of corrupted officials/corporations. My point is none of that is actually doing anything to improve the situation. IMO education is most effective way to do that. I'm a big believer of teaching people to fish for themselves instead of give them fish. But that's something people don't want to discuss because that's an investment with long term return.

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whipassmt

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#76 whipassmt
Member since 2007 • 15375 Posts

@Iszdope: @br0kenrabbit:There's a new Dr. Seuss book out?

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#78 whipassmt
Member since 2007 • 15375 Posts

@Serraph105 said:

I'm less worried about the 3% increase to the military budget, and more worried about trying to balance the budget on the backs of the poor.

Yeah. A 3% increase to the military seems reasonable at a time when ISIS and Iran are growing more powerful and Russia and China are pushing their weight around. I haven't looked into the the details about the cuts to judge if they're too severe or not. I guess the budget does have to be balanced eventually though, we can't keep racking up debt like we are.

Okay: actually it looks like the increase might be more than 3%, but it's still not that big of a deal.

@lamprey263 said:

and what's the Senate or President likely to do with this?

Given the cuts and the provision on Obamacare, the White House will likely issue a veto threat and Senate Democrats will filibuster. I mean, Senate Democrats recently filibustered a bill designed to combat human trafficking and help the human trafficking victims because they didn't like that it included language that prohibited monies appropriated under the act (specifically money gotten by fining human traffickers) for paying for abortions except in the cases or rape, incest and life of the mother. The Democrat filibuster held the bill up for about a month before a compromise was reached - medical funds would come from funds already governed by the Hyde Amendment (which prohibits funding abortions except in the aforementioned cases) while funds from fining the traffickers would help law enforcement and social services to the victims, but would not cover any health-care at all. So if they are willing to filibuster a bill that most Americans would likely support - taking quite a political risk - then I imagine they'd filibuster on a this bill which it seems to be less popular.

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#79  Edited By Jag85
Member since 2005 • 20667 Posts
@n64dd said:
@Jankarcop said:
@n64dd said:
@Jankarcop said:

What republican doesn't love the prospect of potentially blowing up some brown kids!?

How are you not banned yet?

For insulting republicans for their pro-war behavior which typically results in (non-white)casualties?

Maybe I shouldn't have put it in a form of a satirical rhetorical question, for all the PC clowns and SJWs.

Non-white casualities?? You know we lost people? including some of my friends? Instead of being a little kid who doesn't know shit about the real world, grow a pair and stop being a racist stereotyping asshole?

Sure, about 0.1% of the war casualties have been white... Nothing racist about pointing out the facts.

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#80 whipassmt
Member since 2007 • 15375 Posts

@GazaAli said:

they see me bombin' they hatin'

they running, hidin', prayin' that the bomb ain't dirty

they hope the bomb ain't dirty

they hope the bomb ain't dirty

they hope the bomb ain't dirty

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#81 whipassmt
Member since 2007 • 15375 Posts
@Aljosa23 said:

"It includes a provision known as "reconciliation" that allows the Senate to pass legislation repealing Obamacare with a simple majority vote, a sweetener for conservatives."

LOL this again? So bizarre and really shows it's all about politics and 0 fucks is given about the individual who has benefited from the ACA. Also, conservatives once again showing their economics are dumb.

Frozen? If I could choke some cartoon characters... it'd be them.

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#82 GazaAli
Member since 2007 • 25216 Posts

@Aljosa23 said:
@pook99 said:

@aljosa23: The funny thing about statistics are that they are extremely easy to manipulate to make just about any point that you want.

I didn't know presenting facts constitutes as ideology. If you're just going to bring up conjecture and more anecdotes this conversation is pointless.

I don't mean to interpose without knowledge of what's being discussed-and I'm certainly late to the party-but I've heard this cavil so many times that it made me cringe to see it surfacing again. Unless one can prove that a statistical research has been "rigged", I don't understand the point of conjuring this conjecture. We might as well abolish the discipline of statistics altogether since its not impossible to manipulate.

I would understand if someone who studied the research methodology or reviewed the statistical procedure made that point. But to make it right off the bat is just moronic. I'm not necessarily pointing fingers at you pook as this isn't the first time I've seen this point being made here in OT.

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#83 mattbbpl
Member since 2006 • 23350 Posts

@GazaAli said:
@Aljosa23 said:
@pook99 said:

@aljosa23: The funny thing about statistics are that they are extremely easy to manipulate to make just about any point that you want.

I didn't know presenting facts constitutes as ideology. If you're just going to bring up conjecture and more anecdotes this conversation is pointless.

I don't mean to interpose without knowledge of what's being discussed-and I'm certainly late to the party-but I've heard this cavil so many times that it made me cringe to see it surfacing again. Unless one can prove that a statistical research has been "rigged", I don't understand the point of conjuring this conjecture. We might as well abolish the discipline of statistics altogether since its not impossible to manipulate.

I would understand if someone who studied the research methodology or reviewed the statistical procedure made that point. But to make it right off the bat is just moronic. I'm not necessarily pointing fingers at you pook as this isn't the first time I've seen this point being made here in OT.

I don't think he's serious anyway. No one who is would toss out statistical studies out of hand while offering up personal anecdotes as alternative evidence.

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#84 pook99
Member since 2014 • 915 Posts

@mattbbpl said:
@GazaAli said:
@Aljosa23 said:
@pook99 said:

@aljosa23: The funny thing about statistics are that they are extremely easy to manipulate to make just about any point that you want.

I didn't know presenting facts constitutes as ideology. If you're just going to bring up conjecture and more anecdotes this conversation is pointless.

I don't mean to interpose without knowledge of what's being discussed-and I'm certainly late to the party-but I've heard this cavil so many times that it made me cringe to see it surfacing again. Unless one can prove that a statistical research has been "rigged", I don't understand the point of conjuring this conjecture. We might as well abolish the discipline of statistics altogether since its not impossible to manipulate.

I would understand if someone who studied the research methodology or reviewed the statistical procedure made that point. But to make it right off the bat is just moronic. I'm not necessarily pointing fingers at you pook as this isn't the first time I've seen this point being made here in OT.

I don't think he's serious anyway. No one who is would toss out statistical studies out of hand while offering up personal anecdotes as alternative evidence.

My level of seriousness doesn't really matter, the whole conversation got sidetracked due to people throwing out random statistics that had nothing to do with the conversation at hand.

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#85 pook99
Member since 2014 • 915 Posts

@GazaAli said:
@Aljosa23 said:
@pook99 said:

@aljosa23: The funny thing about statistics are that they are extremely easy to manipulate to make just about any point that you want.

I didn't know presenting facts constitutes as ideology. If you're just going to bring up conjecture and more anecdotes this conversation is pointless.

I don't mean to interpose without knowledge of what's being discussed-and I'm certainly late to the party-but I've heard this cavil so many times that it made me cringe to see it surfacing again. Unless one can prove that a statistical research has been "rigged", I don't understand the point of conjuring this conjecture. We might as well abolish the discipline of statistics altogether since its not impossible to manipulate.

I would understand if someone who studied the research methodology or reviewed the statistical procedure made that point. But to make it right off the bat is just moronic. I'm not necessarily pointing fingers at you pook as this isn't the first time I've seen this point being made here in OT.

not all statistics are irrelevant, but in the issue of welfare fraud, the facts are extremely hard to find and often very fuzzy. I have read statistics that welfare fraud is as low as half a percent and others that say it is as high as 11.5 percent, thats a pretty big gap wouldnt't you agree? The poster on this discussion posted a rather low figure (1.9%) which backed up his point. A bit of searching can give you much higher numbers, if that is the point that you want to make.

So while not all statistics are irrelevant, an issue like this, that is as politically charged as it is, tends to have wildly varying numbers depending on who you ask. I am an advocate of welfare programs, but there needs to be reforms to protect those who really need it and deny those who are abusing it. In the future try and get the context of what is being discussed before just jumping in to a discussion. Part of the reason I was dismissing those statistics are outlined above, the othe reason is they were not relevant to the points being discussed.

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#86 GazaAli
Member since 2007 • 25216 Posts

@mattbbpl said:
@GazaAli said:

I don't mean to interpose without knowledge of what's being discussed-and I'm certainly late to the party-but I've heard this cavil so many times that it made me cringe to see it surfacing again. Unless one can prove that a statistical research has been "rigged", I don't understand the point of conjuring this conjecture. We might as well abolish the discipline of statistics altogether since its not impossible to manipulate.

I would understand if someone who studied the research methodology or reviewed the statistical procedure made that point. But to make it right off the bat is just moronic. I'm not necessarily pointing fingers at you pook as this isn't the first time I've seen this point being made here in OT.

I don't think he's serious anyway. No one who is would toss out statistical studies out of hand while offering up personal anecdotes as alternative evidence.

You'd be surprised. I once heard an allegedly intelligent user discrediting statistics because "it uses samples".

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#87 dylandr
Member since 2015 • 4940 Posts

Fun fact: America is 8% of the total population of earth yet they use 20% of it's resources, let that sink in for a moment!

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#88 GazaAli
Member since 2007 • 25216 Posts
@pook99 said:
@GazaAli said:

I don't mean to interpose without knowledge of what's being discussed-and I'm certainly late to the party-but I've heard this cavil so many times that it made me cringe to see it surfacing again. Unless one can prove that a statistical research has been "rigged", I don't understand the point of conjuring this conjecture. We might as well abolish the discipline of statistics altogether since its not impossible to manipulate.

I would understand if someone who studied the research methodology or reviewed the statistical procedure made that point. But to make it right off the bat is just moronic. I'm not necessarily pointing fingers at you pook as this isn't the first time I've seen this point being made here in OT.

not all statistics are irrelevant, but in the issue of welfare fraud, the facts are extremely hard to find and often very fuzzy. I have read statistics that welfare fraud is as low as half a percent and others that say it is as high as 11.5 percent, thats a pretty big gap wouldnt't you agree? The poster on this discussion posted a rather low figure (1.9%) which backed up his point. A bit of searching can give you much higher numbers, if that is the point that you want to make.

So while not all statistics are irrelevant, an issue like this, that is as politically charged as it is, tends to have wildly varying numbers depending on who you ask. I am an advocate of welfare programs, but there needs to be reforms to protect those who really need it and deny those who are abusing it. In the future try and get the context of what is being discussed before just jumping in to a discussion. Part of the reason I was dismissing those statistics are outlined above, the othe reason is they were not relevant to the points being discussed.

Unless you objectively discredited the statistics he cited, my point stands and the context remains irrelevant as you'd still be discrediting research based on the visceral and the anecdotal instead of the objective and the critical. You can't contend the reliability of something based on its possibility of being wrong-until you prove otherwise, or at least intelligently argue against it, the point is moot.

But since you insist on viewing my post in light of the topic, let us analyze. In statistics it is generally accepted that the top and lower 25% of a [potentially] biased distribution are outliers when calculating an accurate range. Going by the range you provided, and assuming a 0.5% step, we can eliminate findings below and above the 3% and 9% respectively. For an issue that is as politically charged as this, this isn't a wide range or a fuzzy spectrum. Note that this is a worst-case scenario as a biased distribution can be biased only at either tails instead of both.

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#89 pook99
Member since 2014 • 915 Posts

@GazaAli said:
@pook99 said:
@GazaAli said:

I don't mean to interpose without knowledge of what's being discussed-and I'm certainly late to the party-but I've heard this cavil so many times that it made me cringe to see it surfacing again. Unless one can prove that a statistical research has been "rigged", I don't understand the point of conjuring this conjecture. We might as well abolish the discipline of statistics altogether since its not impossible to manipulate.

I would understand if someone who studied the research methodology or reviewed the statistical procedure made that point. But to make it right off the bat is just moronic. I'm not necessarily pointing fingers at you pook as this isn't the first time I've seen this point being made here in OT.

not all statistics are irrelevant, but in the issue of welfare fraud, the facts are extremely hard to find and often very fuzzy. I have read statistics that welfare fraud is as low as half a percent and others that say it is as high as 11.5 percent, thats a pretty big gap wouldnt't you agree? The poster on this discussion posted a rather low figure (1.9%) which backed up his point. A bit of searching can give you much higher numbers, if that is the point that you want to make.

So while not all statistics are irrelevant, an issue like this, that is as politically charged as it is, tends to have wildly varying numbers depending on who you ask. I am an advocate of welfare programs, but there needs to be reforms to protect those who really need it and deny those who are abusing it. In the future try and get the context of what is being discussed before just jumping in to a discussion. Part of the reason I was dismissing those statistics are outlined above, the othe reason is they were not relevant to the points being discussed.

Unless you objectively discredited the statistics he cited, my point stands and the context remains irrelevant as you'd still be discrediting research based on the visceral and the anecdotal instead of the objective and the critical. You can't contend the reliability of something based on its possibility of being wrong-until you prove otherwise, or at least intelligently argue against it, the point is moot.

But since you insist on viewing my post in light of the topic, let us analyze. In statistics it is generally accepted that the top and lower 25% of a [potentially] biased distribution are outliers when calculating an accurate range. Going by the range you provided, and assuming a 0.5% step, we can eliminate findings below and above the 3% and 9% respectively. For an issue that is as politically charged as this, this isn't a wide range or a fuzzy spectrum. Note that this is a worst-case scenario as a biased distribution can be biased only at either tails instead of both.

Your still missing the entire point of the discussion. Your focusing on the statistics which was not the point of the discussion in the first place. Having said that the idea that I would need to try and discredit a random statistic posted by a random person from a website is ludicrous. I can post random statistics as well that contradict what the prior poster but it is a waste of time because that is not what the point of the the original discussion was. Of course if you were following the discussion in the first place you may have realized that.

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#90  Edited By GazaAli
Member since 2007 • 25216 Posts

@pook99 said:
@GazaAli said:
@pook99 said:
@GazaAli said:

I don't mean to interpose without knowledge of what's being discussed-and I'm certainly late to the party-but I've heard this cavil so many times that it made me cringe to see it surfacing again. Unless one can prove that a statistical research has been "rigged", I don't understand the point of conjuring this conjecture. We might as well abolish the discipline of statistics altogether since its not impossible to manipulate.

I would understand if someone who studied the research methodology or reviewed the statistical procedure made that point. But to make it right off the bat is just moronic. I'm not necessarily pointing fingers at you pook as this isn't the first time I've seen this point being made here in OT.

not all statistics are irrelevant, but in the issue of welfare fraud, the facts are extremely hard to find and often very fuzzy. I have read statistics that welfare fraud is as low as half a percent and others that say it is as high as 11.5 percent, thats a pretty big gap wouldnt't you agree? The poster on this discussion posted a rather low figure (1.9%) which backed up his point. A bit of searching can give you much higher numbers, if that is the point that you want to make.

So while not all statistics are irrelevant, an issue like this, that is as politically charged as it is, tends to have wildly varying numbers depending on who you ask. I am an advocate of welfare programs, but there needs to be reforms to protect those who really need it and deny those who are abusing it. In the future try and get the context of what is being discussed before just jumping in to a discussion. Part of the reason I was dismissing those statistics are outlined above, the othe reason is they were not relevant to the points being discussed.

Unless you objectively discredited the statistics he cited, my point stands and the context remains irrelevant as you'd still be discrediting research based on the visceral and the anecdotal instead of the objective and the critical. You can't contend the reliability of something based on its possibility of being wrong-until you prove otherwise, or at least intelligently argue against it, the point is moot.

But since you insist on viewing my post in light of the topic, let us analyze. In statistics it is generally accepted that the top and lower 25% of a [potentially] biased distribution are outliers when calculating an accurate range. Going by the range you provided, and assuming a 0.5% step, we can eliminate findings below and above the 3% and 9% respectively. For an issue that is as politically charged as this, this isn't a wide range or a fuzzy spectrum. Note that this is a worst-case scenario as a biased distribution can be biased only at either tails instead of both.

Your still missing the entire point of the discussion. Your focusing on the statistics which was not the point of the discussion in the first place. Having said that the idea that I would need to try and discredit a random statistic posted by a random person from a website is ludicrous. I can post random statistics as well that contradict what the prior poster but it is a waste of time because that is not what the point of the the original discussion was. Of course if you were following the discussion in the first place you may have realized that.

You know, obstinacy isn't a valid discussion strategy. It's true that I interposed, but what I touched on had nothing to do with the subject matter of the discussion. I clarified that from the start yet you chose to make it about the research literature of welfare fraud. Now that I played ball, you're moving away from the research literature. Not that any of this matters as I discussed both and you replied to neither.

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#91 pook99
Member since 2014 • 915 Posts

@GazaAli said:
@pook99 said:
@GazaAli said:
@pook99 said:
@GazaAli said:

I don't mean to interpose without knowledge of what's being discussed-and I'm certainly late to the party-but I've heard this cavil so many times that it made me cringe to see it surfacing again. Unless one can prove that a statistical research has been "rigged", I don't understand the point of conjuring this conjecture. We might as well abolish the discipline of statistics altogether since its not impossible to manipulate.

I would understand if someone who studied the research methodology or reviewed the statistical procedure made that point. But to make it right off the bat is just moronic. I'm not necessarily pointing fingers at you pook as this isn't the first time I've seen this point being made here in OT.

not all statistics are irrelevant, but in the issue of welfare fraud, the facts are extremely hard to find and often very fuzzy. I have read statistics that welfare fraud is as low as half a percent and others that say it is as high as 11.5 percent, thats a pretty big gap wouldnt't you agree? The poster on this discussion posted a rather low figure (1.9%) which backed up his point. A bit of searching can give you much higher numbers, if that is the point that you want to make.

So while not all statistics are irrelevant, an issue like this, that is as politically charged as it is, tends to have wildly varying numbers depending on who you ask. I am an advocate of welfare programs, but there needs to be reforms to protect those who really need it and deny those who are abusing it. In the future try and get the context of what is being discussed before just jumping in to a discussion. Part of the reason I was dismissing those statistics are outlined above, the othe reason is they were not relevant to the points being discussed.

Unless you objectively discredited the statistics he cited, my point stands and the context remains irrelevant as you'd still be discrediting research based on the visceral and the anecdotal instead of the objective and the critical. You can't contend the reliability of something based on its possibility of being wrong-until you prove otherwise, or at least intelligently argue against it, the point is moot.

But since you insist on viewing my post in light of the topic, let us analyze. In statistics it is generally accepted that the top and lower 25% of a [potentially] biased distribution are outliers when calculating an accurate range. Going by the range you provided, and assuming a 0.5% step, we can eliminate findings below and above the 3% and 9% respectively. For an issue that is as politically charged as this, this isn't a wide range or a fuzzy spectrum. Note that this is a worst-case scenario as a biased distribution can be biased only at either tails instead of both.

Your still missing the entire point of the discussion. Your focusing on the statistics which was not the point of the discussion in the first place. Having said that the idea that I would need to try and discredit a random statistic posted by a random person from a website is ludicrous. I can post random statistics as well that contradict what the prior poster but it is a waste of time because that is not what the point of the the original discussion was. Of course if you were following the discussion in the first place you may have realized that.

You know, obstinacy isn't a valid discussion strategy. It's true that I interposed, but what I touched on had nothing to do with the subject matter of the discussion. I clarified that from the start yet you chose to make it about the research literature of welfare fraud. Now that I played ball, you're moving away from the research literature. Not that any of this matters as I discussed both and you replied to neither.

and randonmnly changing topics is not a valid discussion strategy either, nor is completely ignoring what the other person is saying, nor is only looking at one set of data and ignoring the loads of contradictory data that exists because it is inconvenient.

Want to really have a discussion? Fine, my original statement that started this whole mess was that the welfare system is in serious need of reform for a number of reasons.

1) The main reason is that it does nothing to improve peoples situations, Often times people on welfare remain on welfare and never change their social status. That is not good, a good welfare system would help people who are struggling financially but also put systems in place to help those people improve their lot in life(ie: mandatory job training programs, job placement, education etc all of which are lacking in our current system)

2) there are many people who need welfare who don't get it, that is a problem and something that needs to be seriously looked at if anyone is serious about creating a welfare system that helps people who are really in need.

3) There is fraud, and people committing this fraud know how to milk the system, as a result needy people and taxpayers suffer. the funny thing about you is you are obsessing over the one statistic that someone posted. Why not do your own research and find some other statistics which completely contradict the one the original poster posted. The fact is there are no accurate statistics which show the amount of fraud that takes place, partly because many who post abut welfare are trying to prove a point(doing some more research I have found studies that say welfare fraud is as high as 25%, doesn't matter if its accurate point is the numbers vary wildly) and partly because there are people who are scamming the system that are not caught so they are not counted among the population of people committing fraud.

If you want to have a discussion about the topic why not answer the question: Do you think the welfare system is in need of reform? Why or why not? Of course you can choose to ignore this and focus on one random statistic, thus completely ignoring the hundreds of other contradictory statistics and the actual topic being discussed.